Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1029 AM CDT SAT APRIL 30 2016

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...SHOWED AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW TO
MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN KS.  IT WAS SENDING SHORTWAVES IN
THE SOUTHERN STREAM INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WAS NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH WAS
PROVIDING UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE WEST. AREA SNDINGS SHOW SOME
LAPSE RATES IN THE MIDLEVELS...WHICH WERE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS
YESTERDAY. THERE WAS ALSO DESCENT LOW LEVEL INFLOW OF AROUND 35-40
KNOTS. AREA RADARS WERE PICKING UP A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE DELTA
REGION. HRRR AND AREA OBS SHOWS THAT A "WAKE LOW" MAY BE DEVELOPING
BEHIND THE RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. SITE ELD AND LLQ HAD OF
AROUND 35 KNOTS OF WIND. THE HRRR BRINGS THE WAKE LOW INTO THE
REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE LINE. SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
THAT. THERE HAVE BEEN WIND REPORTS FROM AR. OTHERWISE DESPITE THE
LULL IN THE CONVECTION EXPECT THE AIRMASS INSTABILITY TO DESTABILIZE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR STILL BRINGS AN ORGANIZED LINE
THROUGH THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
MAKE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST AND WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. SO WILL KEEP OUR PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISKS FOR
TODAY./17/

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
GLH...WITH ACTIVITY LIKELY TO MOVE INTO GWO BEFORE NOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REMAINING SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO A MILE OR
LESS. LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA ALSO...MVFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

IN ADDITION...RAPID ONSET GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR GLH
BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY AFTERNOON...GUSTS TO 40KTS OR HIGHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

&&
./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...452 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (THIS WEEKEND)...A RATHER WET AND STORMY WEEKEND IS ON
TAP AS A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDS. EARLY THIS
MORNING, A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY/PURCHASE REGION SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX INTO
SE TEXAS. THIS WAS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE SWINGING INTO THE MIDSOUTH. THE MOST
VIGOROUS CONVECTION ALONG THE LINE IS ONGOING OVER EAST TX AND WEST
LA, AND THIS IS WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS OUR
AREA LATER ON TODAY AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD.

CURRENT TRENDS/CONSENSUS AMONG HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO REACH OUR NE LA PARISHES AROUND MID-MORNING. WITH THIS
TIME FRAME STILL BEING ON THE DOWNSIDE OF THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY
CURVE, THE STORMS ARE GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS ACTIVE AT
THAT POINT. HOWEVER, THROUGH THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE LINE, STRENGTHENING/REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES EASTWARD. HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO BE GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS TO SPREAD FARTHER NORTH ESPECIALLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AS
THERE IS MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR DAYTIME HEATING. THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE
IN STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS ACROSS THE DELTA, WHERE RAIN WILL LIKELY
BEGIN EARLY IN THE DAY WITH LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR DESTABILIZATION.
WITH THIS IN MIND, FOR GRAPHICS/HWO THE ELEVATED WILL BE REMOVED IN
THE WEST AND THE LIMITED WILL BE EXPANDED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. IF IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT THE LINE WILL BE MORE ACTIVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AN ELEVATED THREAT MAY NEED TO
BE INTRODUCED LATER TODAY. TIMING WILL ALSO BE BUMPED UP, AS THE
LINE MAY BE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT, THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE WAKE OF THE
STORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH TODAY. SOME REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT, BUT RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS MOST OF THAT WILL REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA IN ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY, WITH REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT
INSOLATION, INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/
SEVERE CONVECTION TOMORROW, BUT FORCING AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
MUCH WEAKER, MAKING THIS THREAT MORE UNCERTAIN. WITH THAT IN MIND, NO
THREAT WILL BE INTRODUCED IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

WITH THE SHIFT IN EXPECTATIONS FROM THE AXIS OF MORE ACTIVE STORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN BEING OVER THE DELTA FARTHER SOUTH TO ACROSS CENTRAL
LA AND SOUTH MS, THAT ALSO SHIFTS EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FLOODING
THREAT. THOUGH MUCH OF THE DELTA MAY MISS OUT ON THE HEAVIEST RAIN,
PRECIP IS JUST BEGINNING TO ARRIVE IN THAT AREA, AND WITH THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE LINE THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. THUS, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THAT AREA, BUT WE WILL LOWER
EXPECTED AMOUNTS. PERHAPS OF GREATER CONCERN IS AREAS FARTHER SOUTH
FROM CENTRAL LA ACROSS SOUTH MS. IN THESE AREAS, THERE WILL ALSO BE
GREATER RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. IF MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION, LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MAKE
AN EASTWARD EXTENSION TO THE WATCH INTO THE PINE BELT. FOR NOW, WE
WILL EXTEND A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE HWO
INTO SUNDAY, MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. /DL/

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...THE PERIOD OF ACTIVE
WEATHER WE ARE CURRENTLY IN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
MONDAY MORNING...ONE WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPART
WITH ANOTHER ON OUR DOORSTEP TO THE WEST. RAIN AND STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE ARKLAMISS REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS SHOULD BE THE
FINAL ROUND. THIS ACTIVITY WILL COME AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT
ACTUALLY MOVING INTO THE REGION SLOWLY THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AS WELL BY WEDNESDAY.
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN GIVEN HOWEVER MUCH
RAIN MAY FALL PRECEDING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
TRICKY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HAMPER MUCH
WARMING AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO MAKE FOR A
VARIATION IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE AREA.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES AND THE UPPER TROUGH ALSO SWINGS THROUGH...
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY...THIS WILL LEAVE OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WE SHOULD SEE READINGS
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...SHOULD BE
SOME NICE WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND ONCE WE GET THROUGH SOME OF THE WET WEATHER IN THE SHORTER
TERM. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS A LINE OF
SHRA/TSRA PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING/
AFTERNOON HOURS. BRIEF VISBY CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
+RA, AND 50 KT WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE ALONG WITH
SMALL HAIL. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT, WITH MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT TO NW AT SITES IN THE DELTA SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       79  67  82  65 /  94  59  53  49
MERIDIAN      82  66  81  64 /  86  43  68  27
VICKSBURG     79  69  83  66 /  94  49  43  58
HATTIESBURG   82  66  82  66 /  95  55  70  29
NATCHEZ       80  67  81  66 /  95  59  62  54
GREENVILLE    79  66  82  63 /  60  30  23  50
GREENWOOD     78  66  82  63 /  57  40  29  49

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035-040-041.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR MSZ026>029-032-036-037-042>044-047>050-053>055-
     059>063.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR LAZ024>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

17/DL/28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1126 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-MSZ018-019-034-011630-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-WASHINGTON-
1126 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TODAY

WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE RAIN.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS
AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO 4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

MSZ032-011630-
CHOCTAW-
1126 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY

FLOODING
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...MAINLY TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ALSO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.

LAZ008-009-015-016-MSZ025>029-035-036-040>042-011630-
WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-LEFLORE-GRENADA-
CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
YAZOO-
1126 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS
AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO 4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

MSZ030-031-033-038-039-045-046-051-052-056>058-064>066-072>074-
011630-
CLAY-LOWNDES-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1126 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ALSO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.

LAZ023>026-MSZ037-043-044-047>050-053>055-059>063-011630-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ATTALA-MADISON MS-LEAKE-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
1126 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ALSO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SIGNIFICANT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
EXTREME...SUSTAINED WINDS 50 MPH OR GREATER OR WIND GUSTS 65 MPH
 OR GREATER.
SIGNIFICANT...SUSTAINED WINDS 40-49 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 58-64 MPH.
ELEVATED...SUSTAINED WINDS 30-39 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 45-57 MPH.
LIMITED...SUSTAINED WINDS 20-29 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 30 TO 44 MPH.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
212 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MSZ054-055-062-063-302000-
SIMPSON MS-LINCOLN MS-LAWRENCE MS-COPIAH MS-
212 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN COPIAH...
LAWRENCE...SOUTHWESTERN SIMPSON AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL
300 PM CDT...

AT 212 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WESSON TO NEAR JAYESS. MOVEMENT WAS
EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  TOPEKA AROUND 220 PM CDT.
  SONTAG AROUND 225 PM CDT.
  WANILLA AROUND 230 PM CDT.
  OMA...ROBINWOOD AND ROCKPORT AROUND 235 PM CDT.
  TILTON AROUND 240 PM CDT.
  OAK VALE AND ARM AROUND 245 PM CDT.
  SHIVERS AROUND 250 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE BEAUREGARD...SILVER
CREEK AND NEW HEBRON.

LAT...LON 3135 9011 3135 9032 3179 9042 3192 8998
      3170 8997 3152 8998 3152 8997 3139 8996
      3139 9002 3140 9004 3136 9004 3134 9010
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 253DEG 28KT 3168 9032 3137 9026

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
242 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BROOKHAVEN              31.58N 90.45W
04/30/2016                   LINCOLN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE TREE TOOK DOWN A POWER LINE ON NATCHEZ AVENUE

&&

27

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
246 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WNW LOYD STAR           31.63N 90.56W
04/30/2016                   LINCOLN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 550

&&

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
248 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MSZ049-055-056-302015-
SIMPSON MS-SMITH MS-RANKIN MS-
248 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN RANKIN...SIMPSON
AND WESTERN SMITH COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 248 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MENDENHALL TO NEAR CLEM. MOVEMENT
WAS NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MENDENHALL AROUND 255 PM CDT.
  CATO AND MARTINVILLE AROUND 310 PM CDT.
  MAGEE...SANATORIUM...JOHNS AND WHITE OAK AROUND 315 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE PUCKETT...MIZE...
BRAXTON AND D'LO.

LAT...LON 3176 9000 3211 8997 3217 8966 3180 8952
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 226DEG 20KT 3196 8992 3176 8986

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
255 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 ESE CRANFIELD         31.52N 91.13W
04/30/2016                   FRANKLIN           MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON HIGGINBOTHAM RD JUST NW OF ROXIE NEAR
            HIGHWAY 84 DUE TO GRADIENT WINDS FROM WAKE LOW

&&

27

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
312 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

MSZ064-065-072-302045-
MARION MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-COVINGTON MS-
312 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL COVINGTON...MARION AND
JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 311 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CLEM TO NEAR PICKWICK. MOVEMENT WAS
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PRENTISS AROUND 315 PM CDT.
  CLEM AND LONE STAR AROUND 320 PM CDT.
  MOUNT OLIVE AND IMPROVE AROUND 335 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE BASSFIELD.

LAT...LON 3103 8984 3107 8984 3107 8992 3113 8994
      3113 9001 3117 9001 3118 9003 3140 8998
      3139 8996 3146 8996 3177 8987 3179 8948
      3143 8956 3143 8965 3103 8966
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 237DEG 29KT 3166 8982 3119 8986

CME