Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
456 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

...SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING ONGOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS DELTA...

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING)...COPIOUS MOISTURE
SURGE CONTINUES AS RAIN AXIS FINALLY PUSHED TO THE E AS COLD POOL
FINALLY DEVELOPED AND PUSHED A QLCS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH
THE LINE BECOMING COLD POOL DOMINANT AND ORIENTING MORE E/NE AND
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW...THIS HAS NOW STALLED ACROSS THE I-55 CORRIDOR
AND UP HIGHWAY 25. GLOBAL MODELS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE DONE A PRETTY
GOOD JOB ON HANDLING THIS PUSH EAST BUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. DANGEROUS FLOODING HAS BEEN ONGOING IN THE
NW MS DELTA...NE LA AND SE AR WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
HISTORICAL WITH NEAR 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH SOME AREAS APPROACHING
17-20 INCHES. NUMEROUS ROADS...HOMES AND BUSINESSES HAVE BEEN FLOODED
IN THE NW DELTA AND EVACUATIONS HAVE HAD TO TAKE PLACE...WITH SOME
CASES LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING. ALSO SEVERE POTENTIAL OVERALL IS LOWER
THAN IT WAS EARLIER BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO OR SEVERE
STORM IN AREAS IN THE E IN THAT HAVE NOT BEEN WORKED OVER BY HEAVY
RAIN AND THAT CAN SURGE OUT AND ORIENT MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE NE
ORIENTED LOW LEVEL 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS.

SLOW MOVING COLD CORE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NRN MEXICO
AND CONTINUES TO PUMP ANOMALOUS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS AREA OF STORMS MAY PUSH TO THE E TONIGHT BUT BRINGING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE ENSEMBLE
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE NAEFS/GEFS PERCENTILES ARE MAXED OUT OR
NEAR RECORD VALUES. EXPECT THIS TO SLOWLY SHIFT E TONIGHT BEFORE THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE N OVER SRN TX THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. GLOBAL/HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE OVERALL ON THE
QPF TOTALS WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3-5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME
AND SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREAS IN THE NW DELTA...SE AR AND NE LA. THIS
WILL ONLY EXACERBATE SIGNIFICANT AND IN SOME CASES LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING ONGOING DUE TO PREVIOUS EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF
10-15+ INCHES. THE RAINFALL AXIS ON FRIDAY SHOULD PIVOT MORE TO THE
S AS THE UPPER JET TO THE N...THAT HAS BEEN PROVIDING CONSTANT ADDED
DYNAMIC LIFT OVER THE ARKLAMISS DELTA...LIFTS TO THE NE AND ANOTHER
HIGH PW PLUME/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPPER DIVERGENCE COMES INTO S
CENTRAL AND SE MS. WITH EFFICIENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND NEAR 850MB
330K THETA E...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BEGIN AGAIN AFTER 12Z
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN S AND SE MS. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER LAST
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS INTO NRN LA AND SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO DRY OUT FROM THE SW TO
NE...WE WILL FINALLY HAVE A QUICK LULL IN ACTIVITY EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT AREAS IN CENTRAL AND SE MS TO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR
BETWEEN 2-5 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHILE AREAS IN NE MS. DUE TO THIS...WE
EXPANDED THE ELEVATED E IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA...WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WPC QPF FCST OVERALL SEEMS REASONABLE AND AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY BEFORE CLEARING. ALL
TOLD...THIS IS DEFINITELY A HISTORICAL FLOODING EVENT AND ALL SHOULD
TAKE HEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS. OVERALL...SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE DELTA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. /DC/

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE RAIN WILL PUSH OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS ALSO PULLS NORTHEAST. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A LULL IN RAIN ACTIVITY FOR SOME OF SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER...QUICK ON ITS HEELS IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW.
UNLIKE THE CURRENT SYSTEM...THIS ONE IS RATHER FAST MOVING AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PARAMETERS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK PRETTY DECENT
FOR SEEING SEVERE POTENTIAL. VERTICAL TOTALS ARE AROUND 28-30C THANKS
TO VERY COLD 500MB TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW. IN
ADDITION...WIND SHEAR IS GOOD FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. WILL INTRODUCE AN
AREA INTO THE HWO/GRAPHICS INITIALLY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN
THE DELTA BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN AREA AND TIME AS THE
EVENT NEARS. DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM FOR A
FEW DAYS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TO ACTUALLY FAIRLY
WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND EVEN 80S LOOK LIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND RAIN PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST...AND WILL AFFECT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /26/

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RIVERS ACROSS NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS ARE ALL OUT
OF BANKS. FLOODING SHOULD EXCEED THE MAY FLOOD OF 1991. MANY OF THE
BAYOUS AND RIVERS ARE OVERFLOWING INTO NEIGHBORING RIVER BASINS WHICH
IS MAKING THE FORECAST PROCESS DIFFICULT. FLOODING FROM RAINFALL ON
THE GROUND WILL CONTINUE FOR A WHILE AND THE WATER WILL HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME RUNNING INTO FLOODED STREAMS. BAYOU BARTHOLEMEW AT
JONES, LA AND IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS WILL BE NEAR NOVEMBER 2009 LEVELS
AND MAY EXCEED THOSE LEVELS. RAINFALL IS PROGRESSING ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI AT THE CURRENT TIME. THE LEADING EDGE IS JUST TO THE
NW OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR AND NW OF I-20 NEAR MERIDIAN. RIVERS ARE
RISING RAPIDLY AS THE LEADING EDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONS. MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL PERSIST TONIGHT IN MISSISSIPPI CAUSING THE RIVER RISES
TO CONTINUE. EXPECT SHARP RISES ALONG THE UPPER AND LOWER PEARL, BIG
BLACK, UPPER LEAF, AND HOMOCHITTO RIVERS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ALONG MANY OF THE RIVERS IN MISSISSIPPI. /MVP/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  67  72  64 /  95  92  86  65
MERIDIAN      76  66  71  61 /  50  69  69  56
VICKSBURG     69  67  72  66 /  99  90  90  69
HATTIESBURG   76  67  71  64 /  57  70  89  80
NATCHEZ       72  68  72  65 /  99  89  93  73
GREENVILLE    67  62  70  63 / 100  90  84  64
GREENWOOD     71  65  71  64 / 100  93  79  58

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>028-034>036-040>043-047>066-072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

DC/28/26/MVP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
304 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-023-MSZ018-019-034-040-112115-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
FRANKLIN LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-WASHINGTON-ISSAQUENA-
304 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

FLOODING
THREAT...EXTREME
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MSZ029>033-037>039-044>046-112115-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
304 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-20. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

MSZ028-043-049>052-055>058-063>066-072>074-112115-
MONTGOMERY-MADISON MS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-
SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
304 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

FLOODING
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT,
MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

LAZ016-024>026-MSZ025>027-035-036-041-042-047-048-053-054-059>062-
112115-
MADISON LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-HINDS-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
304 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

FLOODING
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I20.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

26

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SIGNIFICANT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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