Alert archive / Louisiana / River Flood Warnings in 2016

River Flood Warning 48, NWS Jackson, MS

March 10, 2016Madison Parish, Louisiana

NWS Jackson, MS issued this river flood warning at Mar 10, 2016, 1:16 PM CST for Madison Parish, Louisiana. It took effect at Mar 10, 2016, 8:24 PM CST. It was in force for 24 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 10, 2016, 1:16 PM CST (19:16 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 10, 2016, 8:24 PM CST
Expired
Mar 11, 2016, 8:51 PM CST
In force
24 hr
Issued by
NWS Jackson, MS
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Major

County Madison Parish, LA

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Tensas River at Tendal (TDGL1). The gauge peaked at 24.35 ft at Mar 12, 2016, 8:00 PM CST.

actionminormoderatemajor1015202503/1003/1103/1203/13
Action stage
24 ft
Minor stage
25 ft
Moderate stage
26 ft
Major stage
27 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 07369500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

786 
WGUS44 KJAN 101916
FLWJAN
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
116 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016


...The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a Flood Warning
for the following rivers in Louisiana... 

  Tensas River At Tendal affecting Madison Parish

  Tensas River At Clayton affecting Catahoula...Concordia and Tensas 
  Parishes

  Bayou Macon Near Como affecting Franklin Parish

  Boeuf River Near Alto affecting Richland Parish


Synopsis...

An upper low pressure continues to meander over northern
Mexico this morning. This low is producing a southerly fetch
at all levels of the atmosphere in the hydrologic service area.
This is continuing to pump in a moisture rich airmass into
the region.  The upper low will make a slow eastward progress
into Texas and a series of upper disturbances will rotate around
producing multiple waves of convection over the service area.
The orientation of convective systems will allow for training
over the areas. Flash flooding will be a problem and significant
river flooding can be expected especially across South Mississippi.
Western portions of the area has already experieced extreme flash
flooding and near record small stream and river flooding. Weather
Prediction Center forecast rainfall for the next 72 hours show
an additional 4 to 8 inches over western portions of region. 
South Mississippi can expect 3 to 7 inches while Central and East
Mississppi can expect 2 to 5 inches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. 

Additional information is available at:  
http://ahps.srh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

LAC065-120116-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FL.W.0048.160311T0224Z-000000T0000Z/
/TDGL1.3.ER.160311T0224Z.160312T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
116 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Tensas River At Tendal
* from this evening until further notice.
* At 11:30 AM Thursday the stage was 19.1 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by this evening 
  and will continue to rise to near 30.5 feet by Saturday evening.
  This crest exceeds the May of 1991 flood.
* Impact...River is spilling over it banks and will flood areas
  not affected since 1991.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Tensas River 
Tendal         25  19.1 Thu 11 AM  28.7  30.4  30.3  30.5 06 PM 03/12


&&


LAT...LON 3224 9148 3240 9143 3254 9139 3254 9131
      3254 9121 3224 9127             



$$

LAC025-029-107-120116-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FL.W.0049.160313T1700Z-000000T0000Z/
/CYNL1.1.ER.160313T1700Z.160313T1700Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
116 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Tensas River At Clayton
* from Sunday afternoon until further notice.
* At 11:00 AM Thursday the stage was 39.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 55.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage early 
  Sunday afternoon.  This crest is the highest the river has been
  since 1991.
* Impact...At 55.0 feet...Lowland and agricultural flooding is 
  occurring in areas not protected by levees.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Tensas River 
Clayton        55  39.2 Thu 11 AM  43.3  50.1  54.8  55.0 06 PM 03/13


&&


LAT...LON 3173 9174 3180 9164 3194 9165 3189 9150
      3170 9151 3160 9170             



$$

LAC041-120116-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FL.W.0050.160311T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/COGL1.1.ER.160311T1200Z.160312T1200Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
116 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Bayou Macon Near Como
* from Friday morning until further notice.
* At 11:00 AM Thursday the stage was 50.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 62.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by tomorrow 
  morning and will continue to rise to near 65.0 feet by early 
  Saturday afternoon.
* Flood history...This crest exceeds the previous crest of 64.5 feet 
  on Sep 5 2008 which occurred when Gustav moved across NE Louisiana.  
* Impact...At 65.0 feet...Widespread flooding of farm and agricultural
  land is occurring. Several thousand acres are inundated by the bayou
  not including stand water from the heavy rainfall.
* Impact...At 62.0 feet...Minor overbank flooding is occurring along 
  and near the river.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Bayou Macon River 
Como           62  50.2 Thu 11 AM  62.0  65.0  65.0  65.0 12 PM 03/12


&&


LAT...LON 3201 9170 3240 9157 3240 9143 3225 9148
      3201 9155 3194 9165             



$$

LAC083-120116-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ALGL1.1.ER.160310T0413Z.160310T1700Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
116 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Boeuf River Near Alto.
* until further notice.
* At 10:00 AM Thursday the stage was 28.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is near crest and should begin to fall
* Flood history...This crest compares to a previous crest of 28.2 feet 
  on May 28 1995. 
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Minor lowland and agricultural flooding is 
  occurring along and near the river.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Boeuf River 
Alto           25  29.7 Thu 11 AM  26.8  25.5  25.5 Near Crest          


&&


LAT...LON 3212 9202 3233 9206 3265 9177 3259 9162
      3230 9185 3218 9184             



$$
3 follow-up statements
135 
WGUS84 KJAN 110408
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1008 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...

  Tensas River At Clayton affecting Catahoula...Concordia and Tensas 
  Parishes 
  Bayou Macon Near Como affecting Franklin Parish 
  Tensas River At Tendal affecting Madison Parish 
  Boeuf River Near Alto affecting Richland Parish 
  Boeuf River Near Fort Necessity affecting Franklin Parish 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. 

The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.

&&

LAC065-121008-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/TDGL1.3.ER.160311T1324Z.160312T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1008 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tensas River At Tendal
* until further notice.
* At  9:30 PM Thursday the stage was 21.9 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by tomorrow 
  morning and will continue to rise to near 30.5 feet by Saturday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Several thousand acres of agricultural and 
  farmland become inundated.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Tensas River 
Tendal         25  21.9 Thu 09 PM  24.6  30.5  29.2  30.5 06 AM 03/12


&&


LAT...LON 3224 9148 3240 9143 3254 9139 3254 9131
      3254 9121 3224 9127             



$$

LAC025-029-107-121008-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0049.160313T1700Z-160316T0800Z/
/CYNL1.1.ER.160313T1700Z.160313T1700Z.160315T1700Z.NO/
1008 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tensas River At Clayton
* from Sunday afternoon to late Tuesday night.
* At  9:00 PM Thursday the stage was 42.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 55.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage early 
  Sunday afternoon.
* Impact...At 55.0 feet...Lowland and agricultural flooding is 
  occurring in areas not protected by levees.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Tensas River 
Clayton        55  42.1 Thu 09 PM  43.3  50.0  54.9  55.0 06 PM 03/13


&&


LAT...LON 3173 9174 3180 9164 3194 9165 3189 9150
      3170 9151 3160 9170             



$$

LAC041-121008-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0050.160311T2334Z-000000T0000Z/
/COGL1.1.ER.160311T2334Z.160313T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1008 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bayou Macon Near Como
* from Friday afternoon until further notice.
* At  9:00 PM Thursday the stage was 55.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 62.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by tomorrow 
  afternoon and will continue to rise to near 65.0 feet by Saturday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 65.0 feet...Widespread flooding of farm and agricultural
  land is occurring. Several thousand acres are inundated.
* Impact...At 62.0 feet...Minor overbank flooding is occurring along 
  and near the river.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Bayou Macon River 
Como           62  55.0 Thu 09 PM  58.4  64.4  65.0  65.0 06 PM 03/12


&&


LAT...LON 3201 9170 3240 9157 3240 9143 3225 9148
      3201 9155 3194 9165             



$$

LAC083-121008-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ALGL1.1.ER.160310T0413Z.160311T0200Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1008 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Boeuf River Near Alto
* until further notice.
* At  9:00 PM Thursday the stage was 30.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Minor lowland and agricultural flooding is 
  occurring along and near the river.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Boeuf River 
Alto           25  30.3 Thu 09 PM  26.3  25.3  25.6           


&&


LAT...LON 3212 9202 3233 9206 3265 9177 3259 9162
      3230 9185 3218 9184             



$$

LAC041-121007-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NECL1.3.ER.160310T1839Z.160318T1100Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1008 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Boeuf River Near Fort Necessity
* until further notice.
* At  8:00 PM Thursday the stage was 50.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 50.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 63.5 feet by 
  Friday morning.
* Impact...At 60.0 feet...Extensive flooding of farm and agricultural 
  lands are occurring. Thousands of acres are underwater.
* Impact...At 55.0 feet...Several thousand acres of farm and 
  agricultural land are inundated.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Fri   Sat   Sun Crest Time  Date

Boeuf River 
Fort Necessity 50  50.6 Thu 08 PM  51.4  54.9  57.1  63.5 06 AM 03/18


&&


LAT...LON 3186 9180 3196 9192 3205 9201 3212 9202
      3218 9184 3195 9179             



$$
944 
WGUS84 KJAN 111707
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1107 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016




...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...

  Tensas River At Tendal affecting Madison Parish 
  Tensas River At Clayton affecting Catahoula...Concordia and Tensas 
  Parishes 
  Bayou Macon Near Como affecting Franklin Parish 
  Boeuf River Near Alto affecting Richland Parish 
  Boeuf River Near Fort Necessity affecting Franklin Parish 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. 

Additional information is available at:  
http://ahps.srh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

LAC065-122307-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/TDGL1.3.ER.160311T2315Z.160312T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1107 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tensas River At Tendal
* until further notice.
* At 10:30 AM Friday the stage was 23.3 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by late this 
  afternoon and will continue to rise to near 27.0 feet by early 
  tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Several thousand acres of agricultural and 
  farmland become inundated.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Sat   Sun   Mon Crest Time  Date

Tensas River 
Tendal         25  23.3 Fri 10 AM  27.0  26.6  26.2  27.0 12 PM 03/12


&&


LAT...LON 3224 9148 3240 9143 3254 9139 3254 9131
      3254 9121 3224 9127             



$$

LAC025-029-107-122306-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0049.160313T1100Z-000000T0000Z/
/CYNL1.1.ER.160313T1100Z.160313T1100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1107 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tensas River At Clayton
* from Sunday morning until further notice.
* At 10:00 AM Friday the stage was 44.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 55.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage Sunday
  morning.
* Impact...At 55.0 feet...Lowland and agricultural flooding is 
  occurring in areas not protected by levees.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Sat   Sun   Mon Crest Time  Date

Tensas River 
Clayton        55  44.4 Fri 10 AM  49.9  55.0  55.0  55.0 06 AM 03/13


&&


LAT...LON 3173 9174 3180 9164 3194 9165 3189 9150
      3170 9151 3160 9170             



$$

LAC041-122306-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0050.160312T1124Z-000000T0000Z/
/COGL1.1.ER.160312T1124Z.160313T1100Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1107 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bayou Macon Near Como
* from late tonight until further notice.
* At 10:00 AM Friday the stage was 58.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 62.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by early tomorrow 
  and will continue to rise to near 64.5 feet by early Sunday 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 65.0 feet...Widespread flooding of farm and agricultural
  land is occurring. Several thousand acres are inundated.
* Impact...At 62.0 feet...Minor overbank flooding is occurring along 
  and near the river.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Sat   Sun   Mon Crest Time  Date

Bayou Macon River 
Como           62  58.1 Fri 10 AM  62.1  64.5  64.5  64.5 12 PM 03/13


&&


LAT...LON 3201 9170 3240 9157 3240 9143 3225 9148
      3201 9155 3194 9165             



$$

LAC083-122306-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ALGL1.3.ER.160310T0413Z.160312T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1107 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Boeuf River Near Alto
* until further notice.
* At 10:00 AM Friday the stage was 30.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 31.1 feet by this
  evening.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Minor lowland and agricultural flooding is 
  occurring along and near the river.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Sat   Sun   Mon Crest Time  Date

Boeuf River 
Alto           25  30.6 Fri 10 AM  30.4  28.3  28.5  31.1 06 PM 03/11


&&


LAT...LON 3212 9202 3233 9206 3265 9177 3259 9162
      3230 9185 3218 9184             



$$

LAC041-122306-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NECL1.3.ER.160310T1839Z.160318T1700Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1107 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Boeuf River Near Fort Necessity
* until further notice.
* At  5:00 AM Friday the stage was 51.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 50.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 63.5 feet by 
  early Friday afternoon.
* Impact...At 60.0 feet...Extensive flooding of farm and agricultural 
  lands are occurring. Thousands of acres are underwater.
* Impact...At 55.0 feet...Several thousand acres of farm and 
  agricultural land are inundated.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Sat   Sun   Mon Crest Time  Date

Boeuf River 
Fort Necessity 50  51.0 Fri 05 AM  55.0  57.2  58.8  63.5 12 PM 03/18


&&


LAT...LON 3186 9180 3196 9192 3205 9201 3212 9202
      3218 9184 3195 9179             



$$
850 
WGUS84 KJAN 120251
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
851 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers 
in Louisiana...
 
  Tensas River At Tendal affecting Madison Parish


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 12 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. 

Additional information is available at:  
http://ahps.srh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

LAC065-120321-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-160312T0251Z/
/TDGL1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
851 PM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Tensas River At Tendal.
* At  7:30 PM Friday the stage was 23.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 24.2 feet 
  tomorrow evening.


&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 7 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Sat   Sun   Mon Crest Time  Date

Tensas River 
Tendal         25  23.6 Fri 07 PM  24.0  22.0  19.3  24.2 06 PM 03/12


&&


LAT...LON 3224 9148 3240 9143 3254 9139 3254 9131
      3254 9121 3224 9127             



$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Mar 10, 11:03 AM CST, 2 hours 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 10, 11:03 AM CST, 2 hours 13 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1103 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

.UPDATE...
MOISTURE SURGE/HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH THE SAME
AREA THAT HAS HAD DANGEROUS FLOODING OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS. SOME
AREAS HAVE SEEN BETWEEN A TOTAL OF TEN TO SEVENTEEN INCHES IN
NE LA AND SE AR...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN WATER ACROSS NUMEROUS ROADS
AND IN HOMES AND BUSINESSES. NUMEROUS WATER RESCUES AND EVACUATIONS
WERE ONGOING IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA AND IN SOME CASES A LIFE-
THREATENING SITUATION IN THOSE AREAS.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NRN MEXICO...SURGING VERY ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. UPPER JET OVER THE SRN MS VALLEY IS HELPING
MAINTAIN DYNAMIC LIFT OVER THE REGION WHILE THE UPPER LOW IS CUTOFF
AND STALLED OVER NRN MEXICO. WITH CONVECTION ORIENTED IN AN N/NE
FASHION AND MORE FEEDING INTO THE REGION...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING THREAT TO CONTINUE. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ONGOING
AND POSSIBLE AND ADDITIONAL 2-5 INCHES IN FAR NE LA AND SE AR...WENT
AHEAD AND INTRODUCED AN EXTREME THREAT AREA IN SE AR/NW MS AND NE LA AS
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR ONGOING. ADDING ANOTHER 2-5
INCHES ON TOP OF WHAT IS ONGOING WILL ONLY MAKE THE SITUATION MORE
DANGEROUS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS ALSO EXTENDED FURTHER E INTO
GRENADA...MONTGOMERY...CARROLL...HOLMES TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME RAINFALL
THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS AND MORE IN STORE
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. ADJUSTED QPF TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT ORIENTATION OF LINE OF STORMS MOVING TO THE NE TO HAVE
HIGHEST QPF JUST W OF I-55. STILL EXPECT THIS MOISTURE/STORMS TO
SURGE E BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER CLOSER TO 18-20Z BEFORE MAKING
NEAR OR JUST E OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE AREAS IN THE NW DELTA AND NE LA/SE AR ARE
WORKED OVER AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED BUT FURTHER E...AS
SHOWN WITH QLCS DEVELOPING CURRENTLY...BEST SEVERE THREAT IS DAMAGING
WINDS WHERE LINE CAN ORIENT MORE PERPINDICULAR TO THE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THESE BOWING STRUCTURES. STILL
BOTTOM LINE THE FLOODING THREAT IS THE MOST PERTINENT TO MONITOR
TODAY.

FOR FCST ELEMENTS...ADJUSTED QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR AREAS W OF I-55 TO
LIKELY RECEIVE MORE THROUGH 00Z. ADJUSTED WIND GUSTS HIGHER CLOSER TO
WHAT IS ONGOING. HIGHS LOOKED GOOD OTHER THAN COOLER AREAS IN THE
DELTA BEHIND THIS LINE OF STORMS. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND RAIN PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST...AND WILL AFFECT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. /26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016/

..SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS DELTA...

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A DANGEROUS SITUATION HAS
UNFOLDED OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NE LOUISIANA AND SE ARKANSAS. PER
MRMS 12 HR RAINFALL ESTIMATES...A SWATH OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL
ATOP AN AREA THAT HAD ALREADY SEEN SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN COUNTLESS ROADS BEING FLOODED
AND NOW EVACUATIONS OF HOMES IN MULTIPLE COUNTIES AND PARISHES. WATER
RESCUES WERE UNDERWAY THIS EARLY MORNING ACROSS CHICOT COUNTY AR AND
IN THE GREENVILLE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY WE MAY SEE A SIMILAR SCENE
UNFOLD ACROSS OTHER AREAS AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THIS MORNING,
WITH A STEADY SOUTHERLY FETCH AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUING. THIS WAS CONTINUING TO PUMP IN A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS,
WITH A CORRIDOR OF NEAR 2 INCH PW EXPANDING OVER THE REGION. THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO
TEXAS AND A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND PRODUCING
MULTIPLE WAVES OF CONVECTION OVER THE CWA. THIS CONVECTION WILL TEND
TO BE ORIENTED IN A GENERALLY NORTH TO SOUTH FASHION, RESULTING IN
TRAINING...AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD PROBLEMS. WHAT IS DIFFERENT
ABOUT TODAY...IS WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE ACTIVITY FARTHER EASTWARD IN
THE CWA. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
INCLUDE AREAS FARTHER EAST (AND SOUTH OF I-2O). THE WATCH WAS ALSO
EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH SATURDAY THE CULPRIT UPPER LOW REMAINS TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THAT TIME. FOR HWO/HAZARD GRAPHICS, WE HAVE SLIGHTLY
EXPANDED THE SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREA TO TAKE IN SOME AREAS OF
MISSISSIPPI ADJACENT TO THE MS RIVER WHERE CONSIDERABLE FLOODING IS
ALREADY ONGOING. OTHERWISE THE ELEVATED AREAS GENERALLY MATCH THE
AREA OF THE UPDATED WATCH. WPC FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 4-8
INCHES SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE, SO WE WILL REFLECT THESE AMOUNTS IN
OUR PRODUCTS.

THERE IS ALSO SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE
SCALE FORCING WILL BE RATHER MODEST, HOWEVER, AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THERE WILL BE A SIMILAR SITUATION TO YESTERDAY WITH TRAINING
CONVECTION TENDING TO WORK OVER THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF MORE POTENT
STORMS...CAUSING MANY OF THEM TO BE ELEVATED. STILL, WE WILL CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT A LIMITED THREAT IN THE HWO WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS
THE MAIN THREAT, THOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BOTTOM LINE,
THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE FLOOD THREAT. /DL/

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE PESKY UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS COME SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP FEED MOISTURE AND RAIN INTO OUR REGION.
SOME MODELS INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR THAT MAY REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF
THE STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA BY THIS TIME. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURGE OF
HEAVY RAIN IS STILL BEING SHOWN NEAR THE COAST POTENTIALLY MOVING
NORTH INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COMES AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FINALLY OPENS UP AND
STARTS TO LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER COUPLE
OF INCHES PARTICULARLY TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA...BUT STILL
EXACERBATE FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM ONGOING
RAINFALL FROM THE SHORT TERM. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING IN GRAPHICS AND HWO THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE RAIN WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS
ALSO PULLS NORTHEAST. THIS COULD RESULT IN A LULL IN RAIN ACTIVITY
FOR SOME OF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...QUICK ON ITS HEELS IS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. UNLIKE THE CURRENT SYSTEM...THIS ONE IS
RATHER FAST MOVING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. PARAMETERS WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOK PRETTY DECENT FOR SEEING SEVERE POTENTIAL. VERTICAL
TOTALS ARE AROUND 28-30C THANKS TO VERY COLD 500MB TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW. IN ADDITION...WIND SHEAR IS GOOD FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS. WILL INTRODUCE AN AREA INTO THE HWO INITIALLY FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE DELTA BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN AREA
AND TIME AS THE EVENT NEARS. GIVEN THE PLETHORA OF GRAPHICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT SHORT TERM HAZARDS...WILL FOREGO ADDING
ANOTHER ONE AT THIS TIME. DRIER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOLLOWING THIS
SYSTEM FOR A FEW DAYS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD TO
ACTUALLY FAIRLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
EVEN 80S LOOK LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       77  67  70  64 /  95  77  85  59
MERIDIAN      77  66  70  62 /  54  62  69  56
VICKSBURG     73  68  71  65 /  99  80  90  64
HATTIESBURG   77  66  70  64 /  59  73  89  77
NATCHEZ       75  68  71  64 /  99  86  93  68
GREENVILLE    70  64  70  62 / 100  81  84  60
GREENWOOD     74  67  70  63 / 100  82  79  52

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ026>028-036-
     043-048>052-054>058-062>066-072>074.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-025-
     034-035-040>042-047-053-059>061.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

DC/28/26
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 10, 10:00 AM CST, 3 hours 16 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1000 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-008-015-MSZ018-111600-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-RICHLAND-BOLIVAR-
1000 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...EXTREME
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

LAZ009-016-023-MSZ019-034-040-041-111600-
EAST CARROLL-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-SUNFLOWER-WASHINGTON-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
1000 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

MSZ026>033-036>039-042>046-049>052-056>058-066-111600-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JONES-
1000 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF I-20.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

LAZ024>026-MSZ025-035-047-048-053>055-059>065-072>074-111600-
CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-LEFLORE-HUMPHREYS-WARREN-HINDS-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1000 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF I-20.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

26

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SIGNIFICANT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 10, 11:32 AM CST, 1 hour 44 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1132 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

MSZ019-025>027-101800-
LEFLORE MS-SUNFLOWER MS-CARROLL MS-GRENADA MS-
1132 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN GRENADA...
NORTHEASTERN SUNFLOWER...NORTHWESTERN CARROLL AND LEFLORE COUNTIES
UNTIL NOON CST...

AT 1132 AM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR PARCHMAN TO NEAR
SUNNYSIDE TO NEAR SWIFTOWN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PARCHMAN...SUNNYSIDE...MINTER CITY AND MONEY AROUND 1135 AM CST.
  ROME AROUND 1140 AM CST.
  GREENWOOD AROUND 1145 AM CST.
  TEOC...MALMAISON AND AVALON AROUND 1155 AM CST.
  LEFLORE AROUND 1200 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE SCHLATER AND MORGAN
CITY.

LAT...LON 3399 9045 3381 9045 3381 9018 3376 9019
      3374 9031 3370 9030 3369 9029 3374 9024
      3372 9014 3381 9014 3382 8997 3352 8996
      3336 9026 3337 9032 3335 9028 3330 9036
      3364 9039 3392 9066 3399 9059
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 230DEG 56KT 3390 9056 3368 9034 3337 9036

17
Special weather statement, Mar 10, 11:45 AM CST, 1 hour 31 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1145 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

MSZ028-037-043-101815-
ATTALA MS-MADISON MS-MONTGOMERY MS-
1145 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...
CENTRAL ATTALA AND NORTHERN MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM CST...

AT 1144 AM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR DURANT TO NEAR
CAMERON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  POSSUMNECK AROUND 1150 AM CST.
  MCADAMS AROUND 1205 PM CST.
  KOSCIUSKO AND POPLAR CREEK AROUND 1210 PM CST.
  HESTERVILLE AROUND 1215 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE SALLIS.

LAT...LON 3346 8947 3296 8965 3293 8973 3291 8973
      3278 8997 3320 8977 3329 8967 3329 8965
      3331 8964
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 223DEG 48KT 3311 8981 3283 8993

17
Special weather statement, Mar 10, 12:05 PM CST, 1 hour 11 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1205 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

MSZ043-048-049-101830-
MADISON MS-HINDS MS-RANKIN MS-
1205 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL RANKIN...SOUTH CENTRAL
MADISON AND EAST CENTRAL HINDS COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CST...

AT 1204 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ANNANDALE TO NEAR
JACKSON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MADISON...RIDGELAND AND ANNANDALE AROUND 1210 PM CST.
  GLUCKSTADT AROUND 1215 PM CST.
  CANTON AND FLOWOOD AROUND 1220 PM CST.
  BRANDON AROUND 1225 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3263 8994 3228 8998 3223 9023 3251 9022
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 247DEG 25KT 3247 9018 3228 9020

17
Special weather statement, Mar 10, 12:32 PM CST, 44 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1232 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

MSZ032-037-101900-
ATTALA MS-CHOCTAW MS-
1232 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN ATTALA AND CENTRAL
CHOCTAW COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CST...

AT 1232 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CHESTER TO NEAR KOSCIUSKO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CHESTER AROUND 1240 PM CST.
  REFORM AROUND 1250 PM CST.
  SHERWOOD AROUND 1255 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE WEIR...FRENCH
CAMP...MCCOOL AND ETHEL.

LAT...LON 3351 8909 3311 8930 3311 8932 3307 8932
      3293 8969 3335 8939 3353 8909
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 231DEG 38KT 3332 8936 3301 8958

17
Local storm report, Mar 10, 12:37 PM CST, 39 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1237 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1222 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW RAYMOND            32.28N 90.45W
03/10/2016                   HINDS              MS   PUBLIC

            WATER COVERING PARTS OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE IN HINDS
            COUNTY. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

27
Special weather statement, Mar 10, 12:53 PM CST, 23 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1253 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

MSZ029-030-032-033-038-101945-
OKTIBBEHA MS-WINSTON MS-CHOCTAW MS-WEBSTER MS-CLAY MS-
1253 PM CST THU MAR 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WEBSTER...WESTERN
OKTIBBEHA...CHOCTAW...NORTHWESTERN WINSTON AND WESTERN CLAY COUNTIES
UNTIL 145 PM CST...

AT 1253 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF PYLAND TO
12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACKERMAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ACKERMAN AROUND 110 PM CST.
  CRAIG SPRINGS AROUND 130 PM CST.
  LONGVIEW AROUND 135 PM CST.
  STARKVILLE AROUND 140 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE WEIR...MANTEE AND
STURGIS.

LAT...LON 3326 8892 3310 8932 3324 8932 3373 8915
      3376 8893 3381 8893 3381 8875
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 242DEG 35KT 3378 8911 3317 8931

17

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 9, 6:09 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANMorehouse36 min
Mar 9, 6:15 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANMorehouse6 hr
Mar 9, 9:17 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANMorehouse, West Carroll28 min
Mar 9, 9:32 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANRichland, West Carroll3 hr
Mar 9, 9:46 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANWest Carroll29 min
Mar 10, 12:15 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANMorehouse, Richland, West Carroll9 hr
Mar 10, 12:19 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANEast Carroll3 hr
Mar 10, 12:30 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANRichland28 days
Mar 10, 12:30 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANFranklin66 days
Mar 10, 3:15 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANEast Carroll, Madison5 hr
Mar 10, 7:46 AM CSTAreal Flood WarningJANEast Carroll, Madison3 hr
Mar 10, 8:44 AM CSTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyJANMorehouse, Richland, West Carroll3 hr
Mar 10, 8:54 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANFranklin4 hr
Mar 10, 9:27 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANMadison, Tensas, West Carroll48 min
Mar 10, 9:36 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANMadison, Tensas39 min
Mar 10, 9:38 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANEast Carroll, Madison4 hr
Mar 10, 11:38 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANMadison, Tensas4 days
Mar 10, 11:38 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANConcordia22 days
Mar 10, 11:40 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANMorehouse, Richland, West Carroll21 hr
Mar 10, 12:43 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANFranklin6 hr
Mar 10, 1:03 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANEast Carroll, Madison6 hr
Mar 10, 1:15 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANCatahoula, Concordia6 hr
Mar 10, 1:16 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANCatahoula, Concordia, Tensas47 hr
Mar 10, 1:16 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANFranklin4 days
Mar 10, 1:30 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANCatahoula, Concordia29 days
Mar 10, 1:32 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANAvoyelles, Catahoula, Concordia19 days
Mar 10, 1:43 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANMadison, Tensas6 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Louisiana, 2016Every river flood warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.