Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Jackson, MS

619 
WWUS54 KJAN 022147
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
347 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

MSC121-123-022156-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-160202T2230Z/
RANKIN MS-SCOTT MS-
347 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN RANKIN AND
NORTHERN SCOTT COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER SMALL
HAIL....GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT HOUR.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
JACKSON.

LAT...LON 3222 9006 3238 9010 3240 9007 3244 9007
      3244 9004 3248 9002 3251 8993 3258 8986
      3258 8979 3263 8973 3258 8973 3257 8932
      3248 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 230DEG 39KT 3251 8976 

$$

BYB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1136 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...OVERALL THE THINKING REMAINS THE SAME WITH REGARD TO TODAYS
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
PUMPING MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION. DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI. THIS HAS HELPED FUEL WARM
ADVECTION SHOWERS OVER THE REGION WITH EVEN SOME ISOLATED THUNDER.
THE 12Z KJAN SOUNDING INDICATED A SUFFICIENT CAP IN PLACE AROUND
750MB WITH PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE IT. THIS CAP WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE THE REGION. SOME MORE ROBUST STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CWA HAVE ALREADY REACHED AROUND 10-18 KFT...WHICH
INDICATES THAT SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ABLE TO PENETRATE THIS
CAP.

HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE BETTER STORMS SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
STORMS ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO INSTABILITY AND THE AMPLE WIND ENERGY IN
PLACE ONCE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS OVERCOME. AS HAS BEEN INDICATED
THERE IS AMPLE SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SO ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM ROTATING. GIVEN THIS...AND THE NATURE OF
DISCRETE STORMS...SOME TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION AS STORMS HAVE AMPLE TIME TO MATURE BY
REACHING THAT LOCATION. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE EARLIER TO
EXTEND THE SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREA FURTHER SOUTH IN HWO/GRAPHICS.

MODELS INDICATE THAT AS THE FORCING OF THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD CONGEAL INTO A BROKEN SQUALL
LINE/QLCS BY LATE IN THE EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION CLOSE TO OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE NEEDED. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS OCCURRING THIS MORNING.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE DELTA ARE STILL SEEING VFR CEILINGS. ALL TAF
SITES SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY TSRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY WITH GUSTS OVER 30KTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY TO
WEST/NORTHWEST BY WED MORNING. /28/DL/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...

(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON
ACTIVE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AS WELL AS STRONG GRADIENT
WIND.

WE ARE OFF TO A WARM AND BREEZY START THIS AM AS A BROAD REGION OF
WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL ADVECTION REMAINS OVER THE AREA. YET AGAIN A
DECK OF LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, THIS
TIME WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE NOTED ON RADAR. AS THE CWA
REMAINS IN THIS REGIME THROUGH THE DAY, CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS ARE
POSSIBLE. REGARDLESS OF INCREASED SKY COVER, TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH NEAR RECORD READINGS POSSIBLE AT A FEW SITES.

ON TO THE SEVERE THREAT...IN TERMS OF THE BIG PICTURE, OUR THINKING
HAS CHANGED LITTLE, THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW MINOR CHANGES WITH
RESPECT TO LOCATION DETAILS. THE UPPER JET MAX IS NOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL INTENSIFY TO AROUND 160 KT AS IT MOVES OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. A 994 MB SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH EAST TX. THE
LOW WILL ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE CORRIDOR OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE CREATED BY THE JET STREAK, DRAGGING THE FRONT TO THE MS
RIVER BY AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS ALREADY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONLY INCREASE. EARLY IN THE
DAY, A LACK OF FORCING AND A MID LEVEL TEMP INVERSION WILL INHIBIT
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

THOUGH GREATER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA
CLOSER TO THE UPPER SPEED MAX/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE, BY MIDDAY MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, CREATING
SOME IMPETUS FOR STORMS TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON GESTATION PERIOD DURING WHICH UPDRAFTS
WORK TO ERODE INHIBITION BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE VIGOROUS.
THEN BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS
MAXIMIZED. GIVEN THE SUBTLE FORCING, A MIX OF STORM MODES INCLUDING
DISCRETE CELLS/QLCS SEGMENTS REMAINS POSSIBLE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE STRONGLY SHEARED PARTICULARLY FARTHER EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON,
SO ANY STORMS THAT CAN GET GOING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE AND ROTATE. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE HIGH, IT IS
FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT...SUGGESTING THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL NOT
NECESSARILY BE WIDESPREAD, BUT THOSE THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME
RATHER POTENT.

CAM GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED MUCH OF THE MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA, BUT SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS
HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING FARTHER WEST BACK TO
AROUND THE MS RIVER. FACTORING IN TIME NEEDED FOR STORMS TO MATURE,
THIS SUGGESTS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE (INCLUDING SOME SIG
SEVERE) WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-55. THUS, THE SIGNIFICANT THREAT
AREA WILL BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THERE REMAINS A MORE CONDITIONAL
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA, BUT IT
SEEMS LESS LIKELY GOING WEST OF THE MS RIVER.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
EVENING, EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND CONVECTION WILL SLOW
OVER EAST MS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PINE BELT...TO THE POINT THAT
SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. WPC OUTLINED A DAY 1 SLIGHT EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RISK FOR THIS AREA, AND WE WILL HIGHLIGHT A LIMITED FLOOD
THREAT.

A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST OVER THE REGION TODAY,
SO WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY. THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHER GUSTS OUTSIDE OF STORMS IS A BIT TOO
LOW TO POST A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS POINT, BUT A LIMITED GRADIENT
WIND HAZARD WILL BE ADDED TO THE HWO.

PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF OVER THE PINE BELT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK TOMORROW AS THE FRONT NUDGES EASTWARD. MODERATE COLD
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST AREAWIDE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS AND GOOD
INSOLATION AS NEAR FULL SUNSHINE APPEARS LIKELY. BELIEVE MANY AREAS
WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT, SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SLACK OFF, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WITH
THE SKY REMAINING CLEAR, FREEZING TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.
/DL/

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE GENERAL POSITION OF THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY
WILL TEND TO ANCHOR A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS OVER THE ARKLAMISS
FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL FAVOR SEASONABLY COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES SEVERAL DEG F BELOW
CLIMATIC AVERAGE. HAVE CONTINUED TO FOLLOW A COOLER GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURE BLEND FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN IDEAL SFC HIGH
POSITION AND NIGHTTIME COOLING CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DROPS QUICKLY AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
DUE TO INCONSISTENT MODEL HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. IT IS
DEFINITELY PRUDENT TO FOLLOW THE BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
DUE TO WIDELY VARIED QPF SIGNALS. IT LOOKED YESTERDAY LIKE A MORE
SUPPRESSED SOLUTION WAS THE WAY TO GO...AND THAT STILL MAY BE THE
CASE...BUT THERE ARE MORE INDICATIONS NOW THAT WE COULD SEE THE
MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM INTERACT WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
RESULTING IN QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL RAINFALL THAT COULD MOVE
INTO PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE PHASING
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAPPEN
IN TIME TO BRING US ANY WINTRY PRECIP. LOOKING AHEAD...A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR INTRUSION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       77  49  59  33 /  76  77  10   8
MERIDIAN      76  55  63  31 /  90 100  21  10
VICKSBURG     77  46  58  32 /  76  50   5   7
HATTIESBURG   78  57  65  37 /  87 100  23  10
NATCHEZ       77  48  59  36 /  75  54   6   7
GREENVILLE    77  44  54  31 /  76  33   4   8
GREENWOOD     77  46  55  31 /  77  62   5   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

28/DL/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1112 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-008-015-023-024-026-MSZ018-031715-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-RICHLAND-FRANKLIN LA-
CATAHOULA-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
1112 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REST OF
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

LAZ009-016-025-MSZ019-025-034-035-040>042-047-048-053-054-059>062-
031715-
EAST CARROLL-MADISON LA-TENSAS-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-HINDS-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
1112 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORNADOES
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
TORNADOES. HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REST OF
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

MSZ028>033-037>039-044>046-049>052-055>058-064>066-031715-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
1112 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORNADOES
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
TORNADOES. ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=4)

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REST OF
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

MSZ026-027-036-043-031715-
GRENADA-CARROLL-HOLMES-MADISON MS-
1112 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORNADOES
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
TORNADOES. ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REST OF
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

MSZ063-072>074-031715-
LAWRENCE-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1112 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORNADOES
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
TORNADOES. HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=4)

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REST OF
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

28

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
EXTREME...SUSTAINED WINDS 50 MPH OR GREATER OR WIND GUSTS 65 MPH
 OR GREATER.
SIGNIFICANT...SUSTAINED WINDS 40-49 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 58-64 MPH.
ELEVATED...SUSTAINED WINDS 30-39 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 45-57 MPH.
LIMITED...SUSTAINED WINDS 20-29 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 30 TO 44 MPH.

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
SIGNIFICANT...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SIGNIFICANT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
150 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

MSZ059-061-062-022015-
LINCOLN MS-FRANKLIN MS-JEFFERSON MS-
150 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FRANKLIN...WESTERN LINCOLN AND
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CST...

AT 149 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR GARDEN CITY...OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF LIBERTY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KIRBY AROUND 200 PM CST.
  BUDE AROUND 205 PM CST.
  NEW HOPE AROUND 210 PM CST.
  UNION CHURCH AROUND 215 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE ROXIE AND MEADVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3137 9116 3140 9116 3180 9086 3171 9073
      3170 9073 3170 9072 3160 9058 3135 9091
      3135 9098 3134 9099 3135 9102 3134 9103
      3133 9106 3134 9107 3133 9107 3132 9110
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 222DEG 40KT 3138 9104

GRG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
201 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

MSZ044-045-050-051-022030-
LEAKE MS-NEWTON MS-NESHOBA MS-SCOTT MS-
201 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NESHOBA...
NORTHWESTERN NEWTON...SOUTHEASTERN LEAKE AND NORTHEASTERN SCOTT
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CST...

AT 201 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER STEELE...OR NEAR HARPERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PROSPECT AROUND 215 PM CST.
  MADDEN AROUND 220 PM CST.
  DOWDVILLE AROUND 225 PM CST.
  PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...NESHOBA AND DIXON AROUND 230 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE TUCKER...SEBASTOPOL
AND WALNUT GROVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3268 8901 3236 8940 3248 8956 3286 8925
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 220DEG 34KT 3249 8942

GRG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
237 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

MSZ051-052-057-022115-
JASPER MS-NEWTON MS-LAUDERDALE MS-
237 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL LAUDERDALE...NEWTON
AND NORTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CST...

AT 237 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER ROBERTS...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEWTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAWRENCE AND GARLANDVILLE AROUND 245 PM CST.
  NEWTON AROUND 250 PM CST.
  DECATUR AROUND 300 PM CST.
  LITTLE ROCK AROUND 310 PM CST.
  DUFFEE AND SUQUALENA AROUND 315 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE CHUNKY...HICKORY AND
MONTROSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3240 8877 3211 8922 3221 8932 3227 8932
      3258 8900 3258 8896
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 227DEG 37KT 3223 8923

GRG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
304 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TORNADO          4 S NEWTON              32.27N 89.15W
02/02/2016                   NEWTON             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND POWERPOLES DOWN S OF NEWTON ON HIGHWAY 15. NEAR
            LIBERTY CHURCH ROAD AREA.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
311 PM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TORNADO          4 S NEWTON              32.27N 89.15W
02/02/2016                   NEWTON             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF HOMES DAMAGED NEAR HWY 15. RELAYED VIA MHP.

&&

DCOX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
319 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

MSZ062-063-022200-
LINCOLN MS-LAWRENCE MS-
319 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LAWRENCE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CST...

AT 318 PM CST...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR CENTER POINT...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF MCCOMB...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BOGUE CHITTO AROUND 330 PM CST.
  ENTERPRISE AROUND 335 PM CST.
  BROOKHAVEN AND EAST LINCOLN AROUND 340 PM CST.
  SONTAG AROUND 355 PM CST.
  OMA AND WANILLA AROUND 400 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 9063 3170 9036 3170 9028 3176 9013
      3176 9004 3170 8997 3166 8997 3135 9042
      3135 9063
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 226DEG 39KT 3139 9056

BYB