Severe Thunderstorm Warning 223, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
332 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LOW IS STILL LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA ARE BEING FUELED BY
DECENT CAPE VALUES PAIRED WITH GOOD MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HAVE ONLY
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH PEA TO DIME SIZE
MOST LIKELY. WITH ABOUT 35 KT BULK SHEAR THE STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING.
ONE STORM THOUGH NEAR BROOKHAVEN ATTM SEEMS TO BE OVER-ACHIEVING
WITH GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

OVERNIGHT...THE LOW WILL BEGIN ITS SHIFT TO THE EAST. BY 12Z EXPECT
IT TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY EVENING AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. INSTABILITY REALLY STARTS TO WANE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT AND
NEVER REAPPEARS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE
STORMS TOMORROW.

CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT OVER THE REGION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY STARTS TO SETTLE IN. HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS
CLOUDS REMAIN SOCKED IN TO THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 50S ARE ABOUT
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. /10/

.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

WE WILL HAVE AN INTERESTING UPPER PATTERN AS WE START WITH A REX
BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO A HIGHER
LATITUDE OMEGA BLOCK EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT BAY. WITH THIS PATTERN STILL
LOOKING AT A MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE ARKLAMISS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS THE REX BLOCK PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK THIS
WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY BECOME FIXED ALONG
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS RIDGE POSITION SHOULD ENSURE MOSTLY DRY AND CONTINUED MILD DAYS
AND COOL NIGHTS FOR THE ARKLAMISS GOING FROM THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. KEPT ANY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION AS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
SQUEEZED OUT BY TWO BLOCKING RIDGES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FEATURE.
THIS WILL BECOME AN HIGH OVER LOW BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THERE WILL BE AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM TO THE SOUTH WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PUSHING THROUGH. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH BRING
A DISTURBANCE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OUR RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...
A CONGLOMERATION OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT MOST SITES.
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IF HEAVIER
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ON-STATION. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA.
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE SEVERE STORMS. PREVAILING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
WILL BE FROM THE EAST BETWEEN 3-8 KNOTS. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       59  68  54  73 /  53  41  21  12
MERIDIAN      56  66  52  72 /  53  43  24  14
VICKSBURG     60  72  57  75 /  54  36  20  14
HATTIESBURG   59  70  55  74 /  52  33  23  15
NATCHEZ       60  72  57  75 /  50  35  20  15
GREENVILLE    59  71  55  73 /  50  26  17  15
GREENWOOD     58  69  54  73 /  53  30  17  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
206 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
151100-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
206 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS...BUT A STORM
OF TWO COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

19

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
323 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     HAIL             3 SSW BROOKHAVEN        31.55N 90.46W
04/14/2016  E1.75 INCH       LINCOLN            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OCCURRED AT INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAYS 84 AND 51.

&&

JCULIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
328 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             4 E BROOKHAVEN          31.58N 90.38W
04/14/2016  E1.50 INCH       LINCOLN            MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HAIL OCCURRED JUST EAST OF THE I-55 AND US HWY 84
            INTERSECTION. HAIL COVERING THE GROUND AND LOOKS LIKE
            SNOW.

&&

JCULIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
335 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             3 SSE BROOKHAVEN        31.55N 90.43W
04/14/2016  E1.50 INCH       LINCOLN            MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HAIL OCCURRED JUST EAST OF THE I-55 AND US HWY 84
            INTERSECTION. HAIL COVERING THE GROUND AND LOOKS LIKE
            SNOW.

&&

JCULIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
347 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

MSZ073-074-142115-
LAMAR MS-FORREST MS-
347 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN FORREST AND
NORTHEASTERN LAMAR COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 346 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR WEST HATTIESBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HATTIESBURG AROUND 350 PM CDT.
  OAK GROVE AROUND 355 PM CDT.
  WEST HATTIESBURG AND RAWLS SPRINGS AROUND 415 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3124 8957 3143 8952 3143 8919 3118 8920
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 228DEG 7KT 3130 8945

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
419 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

MSZ065-066-142145-
COVINGTON MS-JONES MS-
419 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON AND
SOUTHWESTERN JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 419 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR EASTABUCHIE...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF PETAL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MOSELLE AROUND 435 PM CDT.
  LAUREL AROUND 445 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3157 8944 3161 8909 3143 8911 3144 8950
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 204DEG 18KT 3144 8934

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
423 PM CDT THU APR 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             4 SE JOHNS              32.09N 89.78W
04/14/2016  E1.00 INCH       RANKIN             MS   PUBLIC

&&

JCULIN