Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Jackson, MS

613 
WWUS54 KJAN 141434
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
934 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016

LAC067-083-141444-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0211.000000T0000Z-160414T1515Z/
RICHLAND LA-MOREHOUSE LA-
934 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL RICHLAND AND
SOUTHWESTERN MOREHOUSE PARISHES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3270 9195 3274 9161 3270 9164 3269 9162
      3267 9163 3267 9160 3253 9159 3252 9190
      3261 9193 3263 9192 3265 9192 3265 9191
      3266 9191 3267 9193 3266 9194
TIME...MOT...LOC 1432Z 264DEG 13KT 3262 9178 

$$

19

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
451 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ARE
LEADING TO FOG IN THE PINE BELT REGION - CURRENTLY MONITORING FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR NOW THERE IS
JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP VISIBILITY ABOVE A QUARTER MILE.

LATER TODAY...MODEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SUBSTANTIAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A
LIMITED THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE ARKLAMISS. WHILE THE
FORECAST AREA IS CURRENTLY VOID OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...MOST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT INCREASING CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOT STRONG...BUT EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
OF ~35KTS SHOULD HELP TO ORGANIZE CLUSTERS OF STORMS AND PERHAPS
GENERATE A FEW DISCRETE CELLS. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STEEP
LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL PRODUCING LAYER. THE GFS INDICATES LOW...BUT
NOT INSIGNIFICANT...LARGE HAIL PARAMETER AND SHIP VALUES. WILL
INDICATE A LIMITED THREAT TODAY IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND SOME WIND GUST POTENTIAL GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER
FLOW AND POTENTIAL STORM ORGANIZATION. CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL IS
RATHER LOW TODAY DUE TO UNCERTAIN MESOSCALE INFLUENCES AND POTENTIAL
SFC FOCI...BUT PERSISTENT AREAS OF LIFT COULD SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AREAS.

AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MEANDERING UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS WILL INSTABILITY. SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A TREND TOWARD LOWER RAIN
CHANCES WITH TIME. BY THE TIME WE GET TO FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST RAIN
CHANCES WILL HAVE ENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLY
MILD THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...AND DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS/PRECIP. /EC/

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

WE WILL HAVE AN INTERESTING UPPER PATTERN AS WE START WITH A REX
BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WHICH WILL TRANSITION TO A HIGHER
LATITUDE OMEGA BLOCK EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT BAY. WITH THIS PATTERN STILL
LOOKING AT A MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE ARKLAMISS FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS THE REX BLOCK PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK THIS
WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY BECOME FIXED ALONG
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. HIGHER HEIGHTS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS RIDGE POSITION SHOULD ENSURE MOSTLY DRY AND CONTINUED MILD DAYS
AND COOL NIGHTS FOR THE ARKLAMISS GOING FROM THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. KEPT ANY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION AS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
SQUEEZED OUT BY TWO BLOCKING RIDGES ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FEATURE.
THIS WILL BECOME AN HIGH OVER LOW BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. THERE WILL BE AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM TO THE SOUTH WITH A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES PUSHING THROUGH. THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH BRING
A DISTURBANCE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OUR RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...VERY POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO LIFR/IFR CIGS . FOG IS A CONCERN THIS MORNING
PARTICULARLY IN THE HBG/MEI CORRIDOR...EXPECT THIS TO MIX OUT
MID/LATE MORNING. LATER TODAY...EXPECT MORE SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN ANY STRONGER STORMS. /EC/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  58  67  56 /  72  63  46  15
MERIDIAN      72  56  64  54 /  71  63  53  20
VICKSBURG     72  59  71  57 /  63  57  39  11
HATTIESBURG   72  59  69  57 /  76  60  38  20
NATCHEZ       72  60  72  58 /  61  49  39  13
GREENVILLE    71  58  70  55 /  66  52  20  13
GREENWOOD     70  57  68  55 /  64  58  29  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

/EC/17/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
521 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>042-047-053-
059-060-151030-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
521 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS WELL. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
WE GO INTO THE EVENING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.

MSZ043>046-048>052-054>058-061>066-072>074-151030-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
521 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY

FOG
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY

AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING. SOME OF THE FOG
WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING TO NEAR A
QUARTER OF A MILE.

LATER THIS MORNING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND PERHAPS
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*FOG*
EXTREME...WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO.
SIGNIFICANT...FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 1/4
 MILE LIKELY.
ELEVATED...FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 1/4 MILE
 POSSIBLE.
LIMITED...PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 1/4
 MILE POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
837 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016

LAZ007-141415-
MOREHOUSE LA-
837 AM CDT THU APR 14 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MOREHOUSE PARISH
THROUGH 915 AM CDT...

AT 836 AM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR SWARTZ...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MOREHOUSE PARISH...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS. OAK RIDGE AND
COLLINSTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3277 9160 3271 9163 3268 9162 3262 9166
      3261 9172 3256 9174 3257 9181 3252 9184
      3254 9189 3252 9190 3255 9192 3261 9193
      3266 9191 3266 9194 3271 9197 3270 9202
      3271 9204 3270 9204 3269 9205 3271 9206
TIME...MOT...LOC 1336Z 265DEG 15KT 3263 9200

19