Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Jackson, MS

948 
WWUS54 KJAN 310654
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
154 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

MSC053-310703-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-160331T0730Z/
HUMPHREYS MS-
154 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3300 9032 3294 9014 3270 9056 3283 9058
      3292 9047 3292 9045 3294 9045 3302 9035
TIME...MOT...LOC 0653Z 237DEG 52KT 3289 9038 

$$

MSC163-310730-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-160331T0730Z/
YAZOO MS-
154 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL YAZOO COUNTY...

AT 153 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER YAZOO CITY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL YAZOO COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...EDEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3300 9032 3294 9014 3270 9056 3283 9058
      3292 9047 3292 9045 3294 9045 3302 9035
TIME...MOT...LOC 0653Z 237DEG 52KT 3289 9038 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DB

176 
WWUS54 KJAN 310711
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
211 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

MSC163-310721-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-160331T0730Z/
YAZOO MS-
211 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL YAZOO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3300 9032 3294 9014 3270 9056 3283 9058
      3292 9047 3292 9045 3294 9045 3302 9035
TIME...MOT...LOC 0710Z 230DEG 37KT 3301 9021 

$$

DB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
940 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

...FLOODING POTENTIAL ON THE INCREASE FOR THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...

.UPDATE...

CURRENT ANALYSES INDICATE A LARGE MCS EXTENDING FROM THE ARKLATEX
INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION ANCHORED IN THE EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL/ERN TX INTO
CENTRAL LA. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SUPPORTING
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND NUMEROUS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED JUST UPSTREAM FROM THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE SLOW
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SPEED AND THAT A HEALTHY RESERVOIR OF VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
INTO VERY FLOOD-PRONE AREAS OF THE DELTA REGION...WE HAVE INCLUDED A
"SIGNIFICANT" THREAT AREA IN THE HWO TO RAISE AWARENESS FOR POTENTIAL
FLOODING OF HOMES AND ROAD CLOSURES. HEAVY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CAN
OFTEN LINGER IN THIS SORT OF SET-UP AND THIS COULD LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT ISSUES...AND 5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN ARE A POSSIBILITY. FOR
LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT REMAINS
THE SAME AND WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES OVERNIGHT MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SRH
IN THE 400-600 M2/S2 RANGE SUPPORTING A TORNADO THREAT. THE HAIL
THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SOME HOWEVER COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE DAY. PER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO LOOK SIGNIFICANTFOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES.
/EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016/

..POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK UNFOLDING FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE...

UPDATE...THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST 18Z
NAM/GFS INDICATE STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR THAN PREVIOUS RUNS ALONG
WITH LAPSE RATES OF 7.0-7.5 C/KM. SIG TOR PARAMETERS ARE ALSO
INCREASING WITH EACH RUN. THE HWO/GRAPHICAST HAVE ALREADY BEEN
UPDATED. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES
FOR THIS POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT./15/

SHORT TERM...
THE LARGE SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL LOCATED OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION
WITH COLD FRONT STRETCHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS ALL IN THE 60S NOW.
CLOUDS HAVE SOMEWHAT DETERRED SURFACE HEATING TODAY SO THAT MORE
STORMS HAVE NOT BROKEN OUT. A TORNADO WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR
THE ARKLATEX REGION JUST TO OUR WEST. DO NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR
ACTIVITY TO START AFFECTING OUR AREA UNTIL 6 PM OR SO.

TONIGHT...A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WAA WILL CONTINUE PUMPING
MOISTURE INTO OUR CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. PW VALUES BY 00Z WILL BE IN
THE 1.75 INCH RANGE...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET CURRENTLY OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT
INTO THE ARKLAMISS. THIS WILL BE WHERE THE FOCUS OF SEVERE WEATHER
OVERNIGHT WILL BE. CAPE VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL BUT VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AT FIRST. A
BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE AND PUSH EAST (ACCORDING TO CURRENT
HI-RES MODELS). THE MAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE TORNADOES WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS A LARGE THREAT TOO.

THURSDAY...AFTER THE MORNING STORMS DIMINISH AND PUSH EAST, THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL NEED TO RECOVER. WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
CONTINUED WAA, RECOVERY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SHEAR WILL BE OVERALL LESS
IMPRESSIVE THAN THE NIGHT BEFORE BUT STILL PRETTY GOOD. CAPE VALUES
OF +2000 J/KG AND LAPSE RATE VALUES MORE THAN 7 C/KM ARE MUCH
GREATER. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S BY THEN. SIG SEVERE
PARAMETERS INDICATE THE MAIN THREATS THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE VERY
LARGE HAIL IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, UP TO BASEBALL SIZE. THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES EXISTS AS WELL.

HEAVY RAINFALL...ALL OF THIS SEVERE WEATHER SAID...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. THE ENTIRE CWA STILL HAS NOT QUITE DRIED OUT FROM THE
FLOODING EVENT THREE WEEKS AGO. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING RAINFALL
BULLSEYES OVER THE DELTA BUT HAVE ALSO SOMEWHAT TRENDED NORTH OF THE
CWA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE WHOLE
AREA. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. /10/

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
CONVECTION ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MAKING ITS
WAY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SFC FRONT
PUSHES ITS WAY INTO THE DELTA REGION. WHILE CONVECTION MAY NOT BE THE
STRONGEST OF THE NIGHT...THERE DOES REMAIN SOME SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS EARLY BEFORE THE FRONT COMPLETELY MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. INSTABILITY PER THE ECMWF LOOKS SUFFICIENT AS MUCAPE WILL
BE AROUND 800J/KG AND SBCAPE WILL BE AROUND 400J/KG. WHILE LOWER
LEVEL SHEAR DOESNT LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR TORNADOES...THERE REMAINS
DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 40-50KTS. LAPSE RATES REMAIN SOLID
WITH MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5C/KM AND VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND
28C...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A HAIL AND SOME WIND THREAT VERY EARLY IN
THE PERIOD FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS THREAT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST AS
THE FRONT MAKES ITS SLOW TREK THAT WAY. HOWEVER MODELS CONTINUE TO
SLOW THE FRONT/STALL IT JUST SOUTH OF MY CWA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
ECMWF HAS IT MUCH CLOSER TO MY CWA WHILE THE GFS IS FASTER IN MOVING
IT COMPLETELY THROUGH. IT ISN'T UNTIL A SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND RIDES
NORTHEAST ALONG IT ACROSS SOUTHERN LA/MS/AL THAT IT BEGINS TO PUSH
FURTHER EAST LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL KEEP SOME
RAIN/STORMS CHANCES IN MY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF
FRIDAY...BUT MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE POST FRONTAL BEYOND THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. CURRENT DAY 3 SPC OUTLOOK PUTS A VERY SMALL PART OF MY
SOUTHEAST IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS STORM POTENTIAL NOTED ABOVE.
GIVEN HOW ACTIVE THE AREA WILL BE IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL HOLD OFF
ON MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO/GRAPHICS AT THIS TIME AND WILL
REEVALUATE ADDING IT IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE.

THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE GULF SATURDAY AND
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. MODELS DIFFER IN HOW
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE BETWEEN RIDGING PER THE GFS AND SOME
COMBO OF ZONAL/NORTHWEST FLOW PER THE ECMWF BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR
WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER(WHICH WILL COME AS A HAPPY
BREAK FOR MANY). TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S. /28/

AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY DETERIORATING ACROSS THE REGION AS A
DECK OF MVFR STRATUS BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. MANY SITES
REMAIN AT VFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO MVFR BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF TSRA/SHRA ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL BE JAN/GTR AND WEST...SPREADING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT TO IMPACT LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST. THURSDAY...STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD SEVERE WITH 50
KT WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES. IFR VISBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES IN +RA AND TS. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       65  78  59  75 /  87  88  77  31
MERIDIAN      62  77  60  76 /  68  93  83  41
VICKSBURG     67  79  56  73 /  88  87  62  20
HATTIESBURG   65  80  65  74 /  53  86  76  63
NATCHEZ       68  78  59  74 /  82  85  61  39
GREENVILLE    65  79  53  68 /  93  90  53  15
GREENWOOD     64  78  53  71 /  95  90  74  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MSZ030>033-037>039.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>029-034>036-040>042-047.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
     FOR MSZ043>046-048>066-072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
327 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-MSZ018-019-034-040-041-047-
312030-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-WASHINGTON-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-WARREN-
327 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS
DELTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

TORNADOES
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...TONIGHT (ELEVATED THREAT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING)

FLOODING
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL
TO GOLF BALL SIZE, AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. STRONG TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS, MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
RESULT IN THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING
AND PROLONG CURRENT RIVER FLOODING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL LINGER
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THESE THREATS ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, THE PROBABILITY
FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MSZ025>033-036>039-042>046-312030-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-
NESHOBA-KEMPER-
327 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

FLOODING
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (LIMITED THREAT LATE TONIGHT)

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (ELEVATED THREAT LATE
TONIGHT)

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOME TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL LINGER
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, THE PROBABILITY
FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

LAZ024>026-MSZ035-048>050-053-054-059-060-312030-
CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-HUMPHREYS-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
327 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA
AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING

FLOODING
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOME TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL, AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL RESULT IN THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL LINGER
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, THE PROBABILITY
FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

MSZ051-052-055>058-061>066-072>074-312030-
NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
327 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND THE PINE BELT.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

FLOODING
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (LIMITED THREAT EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING)

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-59. A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL, AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN TWO TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL LINGER
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, THE PROBABILITY
FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
SIGNIFICANT...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SIGNIFICANT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
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SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
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SPC...STORM REPORTS...
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1240 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

MSZ025>028-310630-
LEFLORE MS-CARROLL MS-GRENADA MS-MONTGOMERY MS-
1240 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
MONTGOMERY...GRENADA...NORTHWESTERN CARROLL AND NORTHERN LEFLORE
COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

AT 1240 AM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WEBB TO NEAR
SUNNYSIDE TO NEAR ITTA BENA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HOLCOMB AROUND 1255 AM CDT.
  LEFLORE...AVALON...BEW SPRINGS AND TEOC AROUND 100 AM CDT.
  GRENADA AROUND 105 AM CDT.
  JEFFERSON AROUND 110 AM CDT.
  ELLIOTT AROUND 120 AM CDT.
  GORE SPRINGS AND MISTERTON AROUND 130 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

&&

LAT...LON 3387 8977 3387 8951 3380 8951 3369 8959
      3344 9045 3370 9030 3371 9026 3376 9024
      3375 9030 3381 9030 3381 9018 3377 9018
      3375 9024 3372 9014 3381 9014 3382 8993
      3390 8992 3390 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 0540Z 247DEG 51KT 3391 9025 3370 9024 3352 9037

BYB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1246 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

LAZ025-MSZ053-310615-
TENSAS LA-CLAIBORNE MS-
1246 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL TENSAS PARISH IN
NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND CLAIBORNE COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1246 AM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER ALCORN...OR 28 MILES NORTHEAST OF NATCHEZ...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
55 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PORT GIBSON AROUND 1255 AM CDT.
  HERMANVILLE AROUND 105 AM CDT.
  ROCKY SPRINGS AROUND 110 AM CDT.
  REGANTON AROUND 115 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 3211 9101 3210 9097 3210 9096 3208 9095
      3208 9092 3213 9091 3212 9088 3213 9084
      3214 9086 3216 9085 3214 9082 3215 9077
      3218 9079 3219 9075 3222 9073 3221 9073
      3200 9071 3186 9100 3187 9122 3193 9127
TIME...MOT...LOC 0546Z 235DEG 49KT 3190 9115

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1251 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     TORNADO          DERMOTT                 33.53N 91.44W
03/30/2016                   CHICOT             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HEAVY DAMAGE IN THE CITY OF DERMOTT. MULTIPLE POWERLINES
            AND POWERPOLES DOWNED. MANY TREES BLOWN DOWN. MULTIPLE
            HOMES DAMAGED...SOME WITH HEAVY DAMAGE. A NURSING HOME IN
            TOWN WAS ALSO DAMAGED.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1254 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1249 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DERMOTT                 33.53N 91.44W
03/31/2016                   CHICOT             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE CITY. REPORTS OF A COUPLE
            OF FEET OF WATER OVER MULTIPLE ROADS.

&&

DCOX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
124 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

MSZ040>042-047-310715-
SHARKEY MS-ISSAQUENA MS-WARREN MS-YAZOO MS-
124 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT YAZOO...NORTHEASTERN
WARREN...SOUTHEASTERN SHARKEY AND EAST CENTRAL ISSAQUENA COUNTIES
UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

AT 123 AM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF VALLEY PARK TO
REDWOOD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PHOENIX AROUND 135 AM CDT.
  YAZOO CITY AND TINSLEY AROUND 145 AM CDT.
  LITTLE YAZOO AROUND 150 AM CDT.
  MYRLEVILLE AROUND 155 AM CDT.
  BENTON AROUND 200 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE EDEN AND SATARTIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3272 9082 3292 9051 3292 9045 3297 9045
      3301 9038 3301 9036 3302 9034 3300 9032
      3289 9000 3284 9001 3243 9085
TIME...MOT...LOC 0623Z 234DEG 56KT 3269 9077 3250 9080

BYB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
130 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     TORNADO          DERMOTT                 33.53N 91.44W
03/30/2016                   CHICOT             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 INJ *** HEAVY DAMAGE IN THE CITY OF DERMOTT MAINLY
            SW SIDE FROM BUCKNER TO W GAINES TO S MAIN ST. MULTIPLE
            POWERLINES AND POWERPOLES DOWNED. MANY TREES BLOWN DOWN.
            MULTIPLE HOMES DAMAGED...SOME WITH HEAVY DAMAGE. A
            NURSING HOME IN TOWN WAS ALSO DAMAGED.

&&

CME