River Flood Advisory 5, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
404 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TODAY...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DELTA REGION WAS THE
BIG WINNER IN RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES ARE
THE BIG WINNER TONIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY IT'S STILL RAINING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE
LARGE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS WAS RESULTING IN
QUITE A PLUME OF WARM MOIST AIR UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER
OUR CWA. THE 00Z FRI JAN SOUNDING WAS CUT OFF BY A THUNDERSTORM BUT
THE BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWED 1.9-2.0 INCH
PWATS SURGING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS WOULD BE A MAXIMUM PWAT
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL HELP ENHANCE
CONVECTION TODAY LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION OVER OUR CWA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. CONSIDERING THE
ONGOING FLOODING OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA...ANY ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL AND PROLONGED FLOODING. IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRY SLOTTING LATE THIS
EVENING THAT MAY LEAD TO A BREAK IN THE RAIN BUT AS THE CLOSED LOW
OPENS UP AND LIFTS UP OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS SATURDAY...ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER OUR CWA. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE OUR WHOLE CWA AND
RUN UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. THIS RAIN WILL END FROM THE SOUTH
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE OPEN TROUGH MOVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. /22/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BY SUNDAY MORNING WE SHOULD
FINALLY BE RID OF THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN THE
INSTIGATOR FOR THE PLETHORA OF RAIN THE REGION HAS SEEN OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH
THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL BE PUSHING OFF INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION. SOME DRIER WEATHER WILL COME ON SUNDAY FOR ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ARKLAMISS REGION. HOWEVER...THIS LULL IN
ACTIVITY WILL BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. ANOTHER MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. IT WILL THEN APPROACH THE ARKANSAS/MS DELTA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS WILL BE A RATHER
FAST MOVING SYSTEM BUT THE BAD NEWS IS THAT IT APPEARS THERE IS SOME
DECENT CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH IT. WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.THIS
WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO SBCAPE AROUND 700 J/KG. WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE
MODEST IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH OTHER PARAMETERS. GIVEN COLD 500MB TEMPERATURES
LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER STEEP ACROSS THE AREA(ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
LOCATIONS) WITH 6-7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 28-30C VERTICAL
TOTALS. THOUGH THE SFC LOW DOES NOT LOOK TO DEEPEN MUCH WHILE IT IS
CROSSING OUR AREA...WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS WHICH WILL
ALLOW BOTH LOW AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR TO INCREASE. SHEAR VALUES
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ORGANIZED STORMS AND HELICITY VALUES
WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A RISK FOR A TORNADO(0-6KM
HELICITIES AROUND 200-500 MS/S2). WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SVR
STORMS IN THE GRAPHICS AND HWO FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
PARTICULARLY IN THE DELTA/NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA.

THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION BY MONDAY MORNING. MUCH QUIETER
WEATHER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL COME AS WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE ONSLAUGHT OF
RAIN THE AREA HAS BEEN SEEING. IN ADDITION...WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE CWA. ANOTHER FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE
ARKLAMISS REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD
GENERATE SOME RAIN BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AT THIS TIME AS THERE IS SOME
MODEL DISAGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT
10Z ALONG WITH RAIN AND A FEW TSRAS. ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AREAWIDE ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  63  73  57 /  90  65  82  53
MERIDIAN      73  62  74  57 /  90  80  73  69
VICKSBURG     74  63  73  57 /  89  68  81  47
HATTIESBURG   73  64  74  58 /  94  83  80  51
NATCHEZ       74  64  73  57 /  94  71  81  34
GREENVILLE    71  62  72  57 /  82  51  79  69
GREENWOOD     73  63  73  57 /  81  50  79  75

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

22/28/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
447 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-MSZ018-019-034-057-058-064>066-072>074-
121100-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-WASHINGTON-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
447 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...EXTREME
TIMING...MAINLY TODAY

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AGAIN
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE DELTA REGION.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MSZ026>033-036>039-042>046-121100-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-
447 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AGAIN
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE DELTA REGION.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LAZ016-023>026-MSZ025-035-040-041-047>056-059>063-121100-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-LEFLORE-
HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
447 AM CST FRI MAR 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...MAINLY TODAY

SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AGAIN
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE DELTA REGION.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SIGNIFICANT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>