Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
545 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

SPC issued a severe thunderstorm watch for our northern 18 counties
generally north of I-72 through 14Z/9 am this morning. Large MCS
with southern edge of a line of strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms was along I-80 and tracking southeast at 25-30 mph and
just north of Stark county. Also have small cluster of
thunderstormsover Edgar and southern Vermilion counties. Concensus
is for MCS to continue southeast track across central IL into mid
morning while gradually weakening during mid/late morning as low
level jet support it weakens. In addition to strong winds, heavy
rains and frequent lightning will occur with these storms. Have
increase pops this morning over central IL due to approaching MCS.
SPC day 1 outlook as slight risk across CWA today and tonight.
Expect atmosphere to destabilize again later this afternoon as more
scattered thunderstorms develop and have slight risk of severe
storms then as well. Temps rise into upper 80s to near 90F and
dewpoints in the 70s. This gives afternoon heat indices peaking in
mid to upper 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Another MCS expected to develop tonight near central IL with another
round of thunderstorms and slight risk of severe storms along with
heavy rains and frequent lightning. Muggy lows overnight of 70-75F.
Another hot and humid day on Thu with highs 88 to 93F and dewpoints
in the 70s giving afternoon heat indices of 99-105F. Will be close
to heat advisory criteria Thu afternoon over sw CWA. Chances of
showers and thunderstorms continues Thu with increased chances Thu
night especially north of I-70 as yet another MCS to impact the area
and this appears to have slight risk of severe storms as well. A
vigorous short wave trof tracks into the upper MS river valley Thu
night and this drives a cold front southeast over central IL on
Friday with best chances of convection focused over southeast half
of CWA, while slight risk of severe is southeast of CWA. Another
very warm and humid day with highs in the upper 80s over central IL
and lower 90s from I-70 south. Afternoon heat indices Friday range
from lower 90s IL river valley to 99-103 from I-70 south.

00Z models continue to be quicker moving front southeast of IL
Friday night and have ended rain sooner, with just slight chance of
convection southeast of I-70 Friday evening. Weak high pressure
settles into the area on Saturday and this to bring dry conditions
over CWA most of the weekend along with a bit cooler and less humid
conditions. Highs Sat 80-85F and in low to mid 80s on Sunday.
Dewpoints mainly in the 60s this weekend, a break from the tropical
dewpoints in the 70s this work week.

Upper level ridging building back into the MS river valley early
next week to return heat and humidity by next Mon/Tue along with
some chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

MCS is bringing a large area of showers and thunderstorms
southeast at 35-45 mph toward I-72 at dawn. Thunderstorms already
arrived at PIA and BMI by 10Z, and nearing Lincoln and CMI at
1045Z and to reach SPI and DEC between 11-12Z. Visibilities could
lower to 1-3 miles in heavy rain along with MVFR ceilings 1-3k ft.
May also briefly have NNE winds 15-25 kts with gusts of 25-35 kts
with gust front from southern edge of MCS early this morning.
Latest HRRR and RAP models have been too way too far north with
this convection and used latest radar loops for near term aviation
forecast this morning. MCS is projected to weaken and showers and
thunderstorms to diminish during mid/late morning over central IL.
More scattered thunderstorms expected to develop after 20-21Z in
increasingly unstable tropical airmass and continue tonight.
Potential for more MCS development tonight, with one area over IN
and into eastern IL this evening and another area over IA into
western IL later tonight.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
438 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

ILZ027-028-030-071100-
KNOX-MARSHALL-STARK-
438 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA INTO MID MORNING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST. MORE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 100 CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED INTO MID MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ILZ029-031-036>038-040>057-061>063-071100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-COLES-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-
EDGAR-FULTON-LOGAN-MACON-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-
PEORIA-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
WOODFORD-
438 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA INTO MID MORNING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD I-72.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON
FRIDAY MAINLY EAST OF I-55. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 100 CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
AND FROM 100 TO 105 ON THURSDAY AND IN THE 90S ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED INTO MID MORNING NORTH OF I-72 AND
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ILZ066>068-071>073-071100-
CLAY-CRAWFORD-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
438 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH HIGH WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...NEAR
105 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND 100 TO 105 ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

07

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
644 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

ILZ052>054-061-061230-
MOULTRIE-SHELBY-MACON-CHRISTIAN-
644 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MOULTRIE...SOUTH CENTRAL
MACON...SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN AND SHELBY COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM
CDT...

AT 643 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER BLUE MOUND...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF TAYLORVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TAYLORVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...PANA...MOWEAQUA...BETHANY...ASSUMPTION...
STONINGTON...FINDLAY...COWDEN...TOWER HILL...WESTERVELT...ROSAMOND...
CLARKSBURG...OWANECO...SHARPSBURG...TAYLORVILLE AIRPORT...MODE...
EAGLE CREEK STATE PARK...WILLEYS AND VANDERVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 3930 8914 3935 8914 3935 8937 3965 8937
      3972 8866 3922 8874 3922 8877
TIME...MOT...LOC 1143Z 324DEG 31KT 3968 8913

SMITH