Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
335 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

SPC issued a severe thunderstorm watch for our northern 18 counties
generally north of I-72 through 14Z/9 am this morning. Large MCS
with southern edge of a line of strong to potentially severe
thunderstorms was along I-80 and tracking southeast at 25-30 mph and
just north of Stark county. Also have small cluster of
thunderstormsover Edgar and southern Vermilion counties. Concensus
is for MCS to continue southeast track across central IL into mid
morning while gradually weakening during mid/late morning as low
level jet support it weakens. In addition to strong winds, heavy
rains and frequent lightning will occur with these storms. Have
increase pops this morning over central IL due to approaching MCS.
SPC day 1 outlook as slight risk across CWA today and tonight.
Expect atmosphere to destabilize again later this afternoon as more
scattered thunderstorms develop and have slight risk of severe
storms then as well. Temps rise into upper 80s to near 90F and
dewpoints in the 70s. This gives afternoon heat indices peaking in
mid to upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Another MCS expected to develop tonight near central IL with another
round of thunderstorms and slight risk of severe storms along with
heavy rains and frequent lightning. Muggy lows overnight of 70-75F.
Another hot and humid day on Thu with highs 88 to 93F and dewpoints
in the 70s giving afternoon heat indices of 99-105F. Will be close
to heat advisory criteria Thu afternoon over sw CWA. Chances of
showers and thunderstorms continues Thu with increased chances Thu
night especially north of I-70 as yet another MCS to impact the area
and this appears to have slight risk of severe storms as well. A
vigorous short wave trof tracks into the upper MS river valley Thu
night and this drives a cold front southeast over central IL on
Friday with best chances of convection focused over southeast half
of CWA, while slight risk of severe is southeast of CWA. Another
very warm and humid day with highs in the upper 80s over central IL
and lower 90s from I-70 south. Afternoon heat indices Friday range
from lower 90s IL river valley to 99-103 from I-70 south.

00Z models continue to be quicker moving front southeast of IL
Friday night and have ended rain sooner, with just slight chance of
convection southeast of I-70 Friday evening. Weak high pressure
settles into the area on Saturday and this to bring dry conditions
over CWA most of the weekend along with a bit cooler and less humid
conditions. Highs Sat 80-85F and in low to mid 80s on Sunday.
Dewpoints mainly in the 60s this weekend, a break from the tropical
dewpoints in the 70s this work week.

Upper level ridging building back into the MS river valley early
next week to return heat and humidity by next Mon/Tue along with
some chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Tue Jul 5 2016

The latest HRRR runs have slowed the arrival of the storms by a
couple hours, to after 10z/5am, while radar is tracking more in
line with the older HRRR runs from earlier this evening. Have
slowed the tempo groups for potential stronger storms by an hour
or two. SPC diminished the Slight Risk area to be NW of Peoria, so
no terminal sites are in the Slight risk any longer, with Marginal
Risk including the PIA and BMI TAF areas. After the initial wave
departs into Indiana Wed morning, there are conflicting solutions
as to how much convection will linger during the morning. Have
help on to storm chances through mid-morning, then indicated a
redevelopment of storms later Wed afternoon as the next shortwave
arrives in the 500 mb flow. Additional strong to severe storms
will be possible during that time frame. Have still only included
VCTS for late in the TAF period.

Winds will shift from S to SW by mid-day Wed, then increase speeds
into the 10-16kt. A few gusts could develop to around 20kt early
in the afternoon.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Shimon

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
438 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

ILZ027-028-030-071100-
KNOX-MARSHALL-STARK-
438 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA INTO MID MORNING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST. MORE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 100 CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED INTO MID MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ILZ029-031-036>038-040>057-061>063-071100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-COLES-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-
EDGAR-FULTON-LOGAN-MACON-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-
PEORIA-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
WOODFORD-
438 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA INTO MID MORNING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST TOWARD I-72.
MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON
FRIDAY MAINLY EAST OF I-55. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 100 CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY
AND FROM 100 TO 105 ON THURSDAY AND IN THE 90S ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED INTO MID MORNING NORTH OF I-72 AND
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ILZ066>068-071>073-071100-
CLAY-CRAWFORD-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
438 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH HIGH WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...NEAR
105 DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND 100 TO 105 ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
234 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

ILZ046-057-060815-
EDGAR-VERMILION-
234 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN VERMILION AND
NORTHWESTERN EDGAR COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

AT 233 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR ALLERTON...OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF PARIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DANVILLE...GEORGETOWN...WESTVILLE...TILTON...CATLIN...OAKWOOD...
RIDGE FARM...FAIRMOUNT...SIDELL...FITHIAN...BELGIUM...HUME...
MUNCIE...BISMARCK...INDIANOLA...JAMAICA...METCALF...PALERMO...
VERMILION COUNTY AIRPORT AND KICKAPOO STATE PARK.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 199 AND 220.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3975 8791 4021 8794 4027 8753 3990 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0733Z 226DEG 18KT 3987 8789

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
259 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

ILZ027>031-060900-
STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-KNOX-WOODFORD-
259 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WOODFORD...NORTHERN
PEORIA...KNOX...STARK AND MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

AT 258 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SHERIDAN TO WYANET TO TAYLOR RIDGE.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PEORIA...GALESBURG...LACON...CHILLICOTHE...ABINGDON...KNOXVILLE...
HENRY...MINONK...PRINCEVILLE...ROME...WYOMING...TOLUCA...DUNLAP...
TOULON...WASHBURN...WENONA...OSCEOLA...BRIMFIELD...
WATAGA AND BRADFORD.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 39 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 25 AND 40.
 INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 34 AND 75.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4115 8964 4115 8933 4112 8933 4110 8935
      4110 8905 4093 8905 4093 8893 4088 8893
      4083 8949 4081 9044 4115 9044 4115 8987
      4123 8986 4124 8964
TIME...MOT...LOC 0758Z 341DEG 26KT 4155 8867 4134 8960 4139 9063

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
426 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

ILZ029>031-038-061015-
PEORIA-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-WOODFORD-
426 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WOODFORD...NORTHEASTERN PEORIA...
NORTH CENTRAL MCLEAN AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 515 AM
CDT...

AT 425 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR ROANOKE...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF EUREKA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LACON...CHILLICOTHE...EL PASO...MINONK...ROANOKE...CHENOA...
GRIDLEY...WASHBURN...SPARLAND...VARNA...SECOR...CAZENOVIA...BENSON...
HOPEWELL...KAPPA...LA ROSE...PANOLA...MARSHALL COUNTY AIRPORT...
LOW POINT AND PATTONSBURG.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 39 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 10 AND 29.
 INTERSTATE 55 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 182 AND 187.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR
NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 4094 8905 4093 8904 4093 8902 4087 8893
      4075 8893 4076 8873 4069 8862 4065 8910
      4103 8964 4104 8964 4104 8921
TIME...MOT...LOC 0925Z 312DEG 32KT 4087 8917

SMITH

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