Frost Advisory 1, NWS Lincoln, IL

990 
WWUS73 KILX 150256
NPWILX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
956 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016

ILZ027>031-037-038-043>046-151200-
/O.CON.KILX.FR.Y.0001.160515T0600Z-160515T1200Z/
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-DE WITT-PIATT-
CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GALESBURG...TOULON...PEORIA...LACON...
EUREKA...PEKIN...BLOOMINGTON...NORMAL...CLINTON...MONTICELLO...
CHAMPAIGN...URBANA...DANVILLE
956 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* TEMPERATURE...LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE MID 30S.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE DAMAGED OR KILLED IF 
  LEFT UNATTENDED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS EXPECTED. COVER OR MOVE 
SENSITIVE PLANTS INDOORS. 

&&

$$

962 
WWUS73 KILX 151221
NPWILX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
721 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016

ILZ027>031-037-038-043>046-151330-
/O.EXP.KILX.FR.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-160515T1200Z/
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-DE WITT-PIATT-
CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GALESBURG...TOULON...PEORIA...LACON...
EUREKA...PEKIN...BLOOMINGTON...NORMAL...CLINTON...MONTICELLO...
CHAMPAIGN...URBANA...DANVILLE
721 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2016

...FROST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASE ABOVE THE LEVELS WHERE FROST DEVELOPS.
SO THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

SHIMON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
244 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Sat May 14 2016

Deep upper level low parked between the Hudson Bay and the Great
Lakes this afternoon, keeping Central Illinois under northwesterly
flow aloft.  Same low brought the cold front through the region
yesterday and left plenty of cold air in its wake.  As a
result...temperatures tonight are expected to drop well below
seasonal norms...into the 30s.  The forecast is on the cusp of being
a good forecast for frost...but many of the parameters are on the
edge.  Winds exist...but they are very light.  Protected areas may
not see the frost mitigation that open areas may see.  Models are
putting temperatures a degree or two above 35...and drier air is
advecting in... but it is slow to do so, and the substantial cu
field is not helping with deep mixing out of llvl rh today.
Considering that it is mid May... have issued a Frost Advisory, even
though the development of frost may be patchy.  In addition to the
fact that todays forecast highs were slightly overdone...which
points to the models not having a good idea about the extent of the
cold airmass.  Areas just to the south of the frost advisory may
still see some patchy frost...but less widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Sat May 14 2016

Well below normal temperatures are expected across central and
southeast Illinois to start the week, but temperatures will
gradually moderate to near normal levels to end the work week. As
far as rainfall chances are concerned, model guidance is in pretty
good agreement that there will be two primary periods with a
rainfall threat. The first period comes Monday into Tuesday, while
the second arrives Friday. At this point the threat for
thunderstorms, especially of the severe variety, does not appear
very high during the favored rainfall periods.

Our initial rainfall chances for Monday-Tuesday will primarily come
courtesy of short wave energy ejecting toward the area from the
southwest United States. However, at the same time, a northern
stream wave will be diving across the area from the Great Lakes
region. The digging northern stream wave helps deflect the
southwestern U.S. energy a little further south than might otherwise
be anticipated given its initial trajectory, with the most
substantial rainfall staying to our south across the Ohio Valley.
This track also keeps the main thunder threat to our south as well.

Upper level heights build across the eastern 2/3 of the country to
end the week, and this will largely be responsible for the
moderating temperatures. By the end of the week, energy from the
southwest U.S. will undercut the mean ridge and bring the next
chance of rainfall to the area. Model trends with this system have
also been more southerly, keeping us on the "cool" and less thunder
prone side of the system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat May 14 2016

Widespread cu field today, mainly from 4k to 5k feet...and will
continue until just before sunset. Gusty winds out of the
west/northwest. Higher RH air moving in through the overnight at
850-700mb...but nothing to lift it should keep the skies mainly
clear/just a few under 5k ft. Lose gusts through the overnight as
well.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Sunday for ILZ027>031-037-
038-043>046.

&&

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...HJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1113 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016

ILZ027>031-036>038-041>046-151100-
CHAMPAIGN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-PEORIA-
PIATT-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD-
1113 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP AS
LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ040-047>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-151100-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-RICHLAND-
SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-
1113 AM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

HJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1212 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHERMAN                 39.89N 89.61W
05/13/2016                   SANGAMON           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2-3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE SNAPPED 3 FEET ABOVE
            GROUND...SEVERAL LARGE TREE BRANCHES BLOWN DOWN

&&

EJL