Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Lincoln, IL

995 
WWUS53 KILX 140144
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
844 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

ILC021-140200-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-160514T0200Z/
CHRISTIAN-
844 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY...

AT 844 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NOKOMIS...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PANA...ROSAMOND AND VANDERVILLE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3935 8931 3944 8928 3942 8902 3935 8902
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 284DEG 34KT 3934 8923 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SMITH

984 
WWUS53 KILX 140151
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
851 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

ILC021-140200-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-160514T0200Z/
CHRISTIAN-
851 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 900 PM CDT...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO AS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. 

LAT...LON 3935 8931 3944 8928 3942 8902 3935 8902
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 284DEG 34KT 3934 8923 

$$

SMITH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
603 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT Fri May 13 2016

Most of the Midwest under west/northwesterly flow aloft from a broad
closed low btwn the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay this afternoon. Weak
surface low dragging a cold front through the region this afternoon
and this evening, with associated showers and thunderstorms
expected through the overnight. Lacking a lot of support aloft,
the thunderstorms will have a significant diurnal element to
gathering strength and sustaining themselves. So far, showers and
thunderstorms to the northwest are rather unimpressive. Airmass
over Central Illinois is more stable, for now. Very little
moisture in the column this morning, but is also countered by
sunny skies and weakly warming temperatures at the surface today.
A slight risk is painted over much of Central Illinois by SPC, and
a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect in the far west in
anticipation of the showers and thunderstorms. With pretty cold
air aloft, hail and wind are the bigger threats. After the sun
sets, the severe threat should diminish quickly, even if the
thunderstorms are expected to continue through the evening until
the cold front clears the region.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT Fri May 13 2016

Lobe of colder air currently dropping into northern Wisconsin with
the shortwave rotating around the upper low in Ontario. Coldest air
should stay closer to the Great Lakes, but 850 mb temperatures
progged down to about -5C by Saturday morning as far south as here.
Have lowered high temperatures a tad for Saturday, mainly mid 50s,
and lows Saturday night still look to be in the mid-upper 30s. Main
question with the frost potential will be with a potential uptick in
clouds late in the night across the northern CWA, associated with a
weak, fast-moving wave. The GFS and Canadian models are quickest
with this feature, while the NAM and ECMWF hold off until a bit
later Sunday morning. With the uncertainty, will leave out any
mention for now and re-evaluate with the next forecast package.

Longer range pattern has been trending toward more dry periods in
the middle to late week time frame, as a cutoff upper low over the
southwest U.S. is slower to phase with the northern stream. The
ECMWF is most aggressive with finally kicking this system eastward
late in the week, while the GFS brings the remnants into the
southern Plains. With the associated frontal boundary being pushed
even further south than recent runs, thunder potential is fairly
low. Have removed most mention of it by Monday night, and went dry
by Wednesday morning. The moisture return later in the week is quite
uncertain due to the large model variations, and so have only
mentioned slight chance PoP's next Friday.

Temperatures will be slowly edging upward each day next week, and
should get back close to normal toward Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri May 13 2016

The band of showers and embedded thunder will continue to march
quickly east and southeast this evening as a cold front sweeps
across the forecast area. Along and just behind the front we can
look for a period of MVFR cigs which should start to clear the TAF
sites starting in PIA around 06z and by 09z over in CMI. Surface
winds ahead of the cold front will remain out of the south to
southwest at 10 to 15 kts with a few higher gusts around the
showers, and then as the cold front sweeps across the area from
01z-07z, look for winds to shift into the west and northwest at 12
to 17 kts with a few gusts up to 30 kts at times an hour or two
after FROPA, before the gusts settle down later tonight. Surface
winds on Saturday will be from the northwest at 12 to 17 kts with
afternoon gusts around 23 kts at times. Forecast soundings also
suggest an increase in cumulus clouds by late morning into the
afternoon hours with cig bases in the 4000-5000 foot level.

&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Smith

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
332 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

ILZ027-029-036-037-040-041-047>051-142045-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-
SCOTT-TAZEWELL-
332 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 4 PM AND 9 PM.

ILZ028-030-031-038-042>046-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-142045-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-
DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-
MCLEAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SHELBY-STARK-VERMILION-WOODFORD-
332 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 4 PM AND 9 PM.

HJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
720 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

ILZ047-049>052-140100-
SCOTT-MORGAN-CASS-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-
720 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SANGAMON...NORTHWESTERN CHRISTIAN...EASTERN MORGAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN CASS COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 719 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
JACKSONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRINGFIELD...JACKSONVILLE...CHATHAM...ALEXANDER...AUBURN...ROCHESTER...
RIVERTON...PAWNEE...KINCAID...NEW BERLIN...WAVERLY...DIVERNON...EDINBURG...
PLEASANT PLAINS...LOAMI...FRANKLIN...MECHANICSBURG...WOODSON...BULPITT AND
JEISYVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 55 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 77 AND 100.
 INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 59 AND 111.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3990 9025 3983 8936 3946 8940 3949 8953
      3952 8954 3952 8971 3965 9037
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 284DEG 35KT 3972 9025

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
739 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N WILLIAMSVILLE       39.97N 89.56W
05/13/2016  M65 MPH          SANGAMON           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JRP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
820 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

ILZ052-054-061-140200-
MOULTRIE-SHELBY-CHRISTIAN-
820 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CHRISTIAN AND SOUTHERN
SHELBY COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 819 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MORRISONVILLE...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAYLORVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TAYLORVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...PANA...MORRISONVILLE...WINDSOR...STEWARDSON...
COWDEN...TOWER HILL...WESTERVELT...STRASBURG...ROSAMOND...CLARKSBURG...
OWANECO...PALMER...OCONEE...MODE AND VANDERVILLE.

LAT...LON 3929 8914 3935 8914 3935 8953 3952 8953
      3947 8854 3921 8855
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 277DEG 49KT 3943 8945

SMITH