Alert archive / Ohio / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

August 15, 2016Pickaway County, Ohio

NWS Wilmington, OH issued this special weather statement at Aug 15, 2016, 6:49 PM EDT for Pickaway County, Ohio. It was in force for 26 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 15, 2016, 6:49 PM EDT (22:49 UTC)
Expired: Aug 15, 2016, 7:15 PM EDT
In force: 26 min
Issued by: NWS Wilmington, OH

County Pickaway County, OH

The radar

The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 69 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 45 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -154 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1003 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -111 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -81 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 15, 3:31 PM EDT, 3 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 15, 3:31 PM EDT, 3 hours 18 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
331 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will move northeast from the Mississippi
Valley to the Great Lakes region through tonight. Attendant warm
front will lift northward through area before a slow-moving cold
front moves through region Tuesday/Tuesday night. The unsettled
pattern will continue through early Wednesday before surface high
pressure settles into the area for the end of the workweek,
allowing for drier conditions to return to the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sfc low pressure will move NNE from the St. Louis area to
southern MI through tonight. Surface analysis shows the frontal
boundary stretching across the heart of the FA this afternoon. As
the sfc low moves NNE, the boundary will lift north of the FA as a
warm front by 03z tonight.

The shield of rain that has been impacting areas along and north
of I-71 this morning/early afternoon will continue to lift
north, allowing for wet conditions to continue for northwestern
third of FA this afternoon. South/east of this, some clearing is
allowing for instby to build, especially along and south of the
I-71 corridor. With increased differential heating, a sharp CAPE
gradient has developed and convection has already fired in this
increasingly unstable airmass and will push NNE through southern
2/3 of FA through 00z. SPC mesoanalysis suggests MLCAPE of
1000-1500j/kg has developed across area, which will provide plenty
of instby through remainder of afternoon/early evening for
maintenance of convection.

Although the primary threat with any convection this
afternoon/evening will be locally heavy rain and gusty winds, the LLJ
will help increase SSW flow in the 925mb-850mb layer, leading to a
little bit of turning and lengthening to the hodograph in the
lowest 3km. This could support a few organized / rotating storms,
with a marginal wind/tornado threat, as outlined well in the
current SPC outlook. Barring any training convection, expect that
modest steering-layer flow will reduce time that downpours remain
anchored over one particular location, helping keep the flash
flooding risk isolated. Expect that activity should be somewhat
diurnally driven as instby begins to wane after the 00z-03z time
frame.

For the overnight period, anticipate that southeastern half of the
FA should remain mostly dry, but kept chance PoPs in north/west
as sfc low progresses thru northern IL/IN. Trended low temps above
guidance for overnight period as southerly flow, extensive cloud
cover, and a very moist environment prevent temperatures from
falling too much. Lows will range from near 70 in the northwest to
mid 70s in the southeast.

With 1.34" this morning, KCVG is close to its record daily
precipitation for August 15. The old record of 1.37" was set
in 1879.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As the sfc low moves east across the Great Lakes region, the weak
attendant cold front will move southeast through FA through the
day on Tuesday. Expect that instby will increase along/ahead of
the boundary during the afternoon hours, allowing for scattered
convection to develop once again across most of FA. As instby
decreases after 00z Wednesday, expect convective coverage to
decrease as the front sags south through the area. Nevertheless, a
storm or two may linger across the south Tuesday night as the
front slowly pushes south of the FA by early Wednesday.

For Tuesday, highs will top out near 80 in the north/west and in
the upper 80s in the south/east. Tuesday night lows will range
from the upper 60s in the northwest to the lower 70s in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Favorable moisture feed to continue into the middle of the week into
the Ohio valley ahead of a frontal boundary. This will keep the
threat for precipitation in the forecast Wednesday.

The upper level ridge that has been anchored to our se is flattened
late Wednesday, which acts to interrupt the moisture feed. Have
continued a slight chance/chance of a thunderstorm into Thursday
with the lingering instability over the area and a northern stream
shortwave tracking east thru the Great Lakes.

Although can not rule out an isolated thunderstorm, have opted to
keep Friday dry with mid level ridge building over the region ahead
of long wave trof. Better threat for showers and thunderstorms
returns Saturday as long wave trof and associated surface cold front
approach from the west. Have continued high chance pops late
Saturday/early Sunday with the passage of a cold front.

Surface high pressure to build in early next week, providing dry
weather and cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Aside from some continuing showers at KDAY, the TAF sites have
gone dry to start the afternoon, with VFR conditions and light
southeasterly wind flow. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon, though storm coverage is not
forecast to be great enough to guarantee the airports will be
impacted. This set of TAFs will continue the VCTS, and as storms
develop, TSRA (with MVFR/IFR conditions) will be included in
amendments.

A downward trend in precipitation coverage is expected by evening,
with mostly dry conditions expected overnight. On Tuesday morning,
MVFR ceilings are expected to move in from the northwest, along
with another chance of rain.

OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are expected on occasion
through Thursday with potential for MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys in the
heaviest activity. Showers and thunderstorms are possible again on
Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC/Hatzos
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Hatzos

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 15, 5:03 AM EDT, 13 hours 46 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
503 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-160915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
503 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 15, 5:12 PM EDT, 1 hour 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
512 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     TSTM WND GST     DELHI TOWNSHIP          39.10N 84.63W
08/15/2016  M51 MPH          HAMILTON           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4-5 INCH DIAMETER LIMB REPORTED DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

ABUTNER

Special weather statement, Aug 15, 5:26 PM EDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
526 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

KYZ093-OHZ070-071-077-078-152200-
CAMPBELL KY-HAMILTON OH-WARREN OH-CLERMONT OH-BUTLER OH-
526 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CAMPBELL...NORTHEASTERN
HAMILTON...SOUTHWESTERN WARREN...NORTHWESTERN CLERMONT AND
SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 526 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
FINNEYTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CINCINNATI...HAMILTON...FAIRFIELD...MASON...NORWOOD...FOREST PARK...
FORT THOMAS...NEWPORT...SHARONVILLE...BLUE ASH...LOVELAND...
SPRINGDALE...READING...MONTGOMERY...NORTH COLLEGE HILL...MADEIRA...
WYOMING...MILFORD...MOUNT HEALTHY AND BELLEVUE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
 I-71 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 2 AND 22.
 I-74 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 15 AND 19.
 I-75 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 3 AND 21.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3939 8452 3927 8415 3908 8446 3919 8462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 215DEG 34KT 3919 8450

KC

Special weather statement, Aug 15, 5:27 PM EDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
527 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

OHZ061-062-071-072-152200-
GREENE OH-CLINTON OH-WARREN OH-MONTGOMERY OH-
527 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN GREENE...
NORTHWESTERN CLINTON...WARREN AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES
UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 526 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LEBANON...
MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KETTERING...BEAVERCREEK...MASON...MIAMISBURG...LEBANON...
SPRINGBORO...BELLBROOK...MORAINE...OAKWOOD...WAYNESVILLE...MORROW...
KINGS ISLAND...HUNTER...SOUTH LEBANON...HARVEYSBURG...
SPRING VALLEY...CORWIN...CENTERVILLE...ROXANNA AND HAGEMAN.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
 I-71 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 24 AND 41.
 I-75 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 42 AND 43.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3929 8411 3935 8432 3972 8420 3962 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 201DEG 25KT 3940 8419

CONIGLIO

Special weather statement, Aug 15, 5:28 PM EDT, 1 hour 21 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
528 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

OHZ080>082-152200-
PIKE OH-HIGHLAND OH-ADAMS OH-
528 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN PIKE...SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLAND AND NORTHERN ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 528 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SEAMAN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PEEBLES...WINCHESTER...MARSHALL...SEAMAN...BELFAST...EMERALD...
SINKING SPRING...BERRYSVILLE...MAY HILL...LOCUST GROVE...
POPLAR GROVE...SMOKY CORNERS...ROCKY FORK LAKE AND SERPENT MOUND.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

TO REPORT HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS...GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA...WHEN YOU
CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3896 8368 3899 8368 3923 8349 3903 8318
      3900 8323 3901 8324 3901 8327 3898 8327
      3885 8350
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 226DEG 20KT 3894 8354

KC

Local storm report, Aug 15, 5:57 PM EDT, 52 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Aug 15, 6:49 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Wilmington, OH issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 15, 5:04 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	ILN	Hamilton	3 hr
Aug 15, 6:01 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	ILN	Clermont, Hamilton, Warren	119 min
Aug 15, 6:01 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Clermont	29 min
Aug 15, 6:22 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILN	Clinton, Greene, Hamilton, Warren	23 min
Aug 15, 6:45 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Clinton	30 min
Aug 15, 6:53 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	ILN	Clinton, Warren	112 min
Aug 15, 7:00 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILN	Clinton, Fayette, Greene	30 min
Aug 15, 7:04 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Hocking	26 min
Aug 15, 7:15 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	ILN	Clinton, Fayette, Greene, Madison	2 hr
Aug 15, 7:29 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Pickaway	31 min
Aug 15, 7:38 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	ILN	Fayette, Highland, Pike, Ross	3 hr
Aug 15, 7:53 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	ILN	Franklin, Madison, Pickaway	3 hr
Aug 15, 8:42 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	ILN	Fairfield, Hocking, Pickaway	3 hr
Aug 15, 3:27 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Scioto	33 min
Aug 15, 4:44 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Clermont	31 min
Aug 15, 4:46 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Clinton	29 min
Aug 15, 5:00 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Warren	30 min
Aug 15, 5:02 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILN	Clinton, Warren	28 min
Aug 15, 5:06 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Adams	24 min
Aug 15, 5:26 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Hamilton	34 min
Aug 15, 5:26 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILN	Clinton	34 min
Aug 15, 5:27 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Warren	33 min
Aug 15, 5:28 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Highland	32 min
Aug 15, 5:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILN	Butler, Hamilton, Warren	15 min
Aug 15, 5:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILN	Adams, Pike, Scioto	35 min
Aug 15, 7:18 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Pickaway	27 min
Aug 15, 7:44 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Fairfield	31 min
Aug 15, 4:41 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	ILN	Carroll, Gallatin, Owen	3 hr
Aug 15, 5:22 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Boone, Kenton	38 min
Aug 15, 5:35 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Campbell, Kenton	25 min
Aug 15, 4:16 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Gallatin	29 min
Aug 15, 4:20 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Campbell, Kenton	25 min
Aug 15, 4:31 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Boone	29 min
Aug 15, 7:22 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	ILN	Mason, Robertson	113 min
Aug 15, 2:19 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Ripley	41 min
Aug 15, 3:19 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Ripley	26 min
Aug 15, 3:55 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	ILN	Ripley	2 hr
Aug 15, 4:14 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	ILN	Dearborn	31 min
Aug 15, 5:11 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	ILN	Dearborn, Franklin, Ripley	94 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Ohio, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.