Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
331 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will move northeast from the Mississippi
Valley to the Great Lakes region through tonight. Attendant warm
front will lift northward through area before a slow-moving cold
front moves through region Tuesday/Tuesday night. The unsettled
pattern will continue through early Wednesday before surface high
pressure settles into the area for the end of the workweek,
allowing for drier conditions to return to the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sfc low pressure will move NNE from the St. Louis area to
southern MI through tonight. Surface analysis shows the frontal
boundary stretching across the heart of the FA this afternoon. As
the sfc low moves NNE, the boundary will lift north of the FA as a
warm front by 03z tonight.

The shield of rain that has been impacting areas along and north
of I-71 this morning/early afternoon will continue to lift
north, allowing for wet conditions to continue for northwestern
third of FA this afternoon. South/east of this, some clearing is
allowing for instby to build, especially along and south of the
I-71 corridor. With increased differential heating, a sharp CAPE
gradient has developed and convection has already fired in this
increasingly unstable airmass and will push NNE through southern
2/3 of FA through 00z. SPC mesoanalysis suggests MLCAPE of
1000-1500j/kg has developed across area, which will provide plenty
of instby through remainder of afternoon/early evening for
maintenance of convection.

Although the primary threat with any convection this
afternoon/evening will be locally heavy rain and gusty winds, the LLJ
will help increase SSW flow in the 925mb-850mb layer, leading to a
little bit of turning and lengthening to the hodograph in the
lowest 3km. This could support a few organized / rotating storms,
with a marginal wind/tornado threat, as outlined well in the
current SPC outlook. Barring any training convection, expect that
modest steering-layer flow will reduce time that downpours remain
anchored over one particular location, helping keep the flash
flooding risk isolated. Expect that activity should be somewhat
diurnally driven as instby begins to wane after the 00z-03z time
frame.

For the overnight period, anticipate that southeastern half of the
FA should remain mostly dry, but kept chance PoPs in north/west
as sfc low progresses thru northern IL/IN. Trended low temps above
guidance for overnight period as southerly flow, extensive cloud
cover, and a very moist environment prevent temperatures from
falling too much. Lows will range from near 70 in the northwest to
mid 70s in the southeast.

With 1.34" this morning, KCVG is close to its record daily
precipitation for August 15. The old record of 1.37" was set
in 1879.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As the sfc low moves east across the Great Lakes region, the weak
attendant cold front will move southeast through FA through the
day on Tuesday. Expect that instby will increase along/ahead of
the boundary during the afternoon hours, allowing for scattered
convection to develop once again across most of FA. As instby
decreases after 00z Wednesday, expect convective coverage to
decrease as the front sags south through the area. Nevertheless, a
storm or two may linger across the south Tuesday night as the
front slowly pushes south of the FA by early Wednesday.

For Tuesday, highs will top out near 80 in the north/west and in
the upper 80s in the south/east. Tuesday night lows will range
from the upper 60s in the northwest to the lower 70s in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Favorable moisture feed to continue into the middle of the week into
the Ohio valley ahead of a frontal boundary. This will keep the
threat for precipitation in the forecast Wednesday.

The upper level ridge that has been anchored to our se is flattened
late Wednesday, which acts to interrupt the moisture feed. Have
continued a slight chance/chance of a thunderstorm into Thursday
with the lingering instability over the area and a northern stream
shortwave tracking east thru the Great Lakes.

Although can not rule out an isolated thunderstorm, have opted to
keep Friday dry with mid level ridge building over the region ahead
of long wave trof. Better threat for showers and thunderstorms
returns Saturday as long wave trof and associated surface cold front
approach from the west. Have continued high chance pops late
Saturday/early Sunday with the passage of a cold front.

Surface high pressure to build in early next week, providing dry
weather and cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Aside from some continuing showers at KDAY, the TAF sites have
gone dry to start the afternoon, with VFR conditions and light
southeasterly wind flow. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon, though storm coverage is not
forecast to be great enough to guarantee the airports will be
impacted. This set of TAFs will continue the VCTS, and as storms
develop, TSRA (with MVFR/IFR conditions) will be included in
amendments.

A downward trend in precipitation coverage is expected by evening,
with mostly dry conditions expected overnight. On Tuesday morning,
MVFR ceilings are expected to move in from the northwest, along
with another chance of rain.

OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms are expected on occasion
through Thursday with potential for MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys in the
heaviest activity. Showers and thunderstorms are possible again on
Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC/Hatzos
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Hatzos

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
503 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-160915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
503 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND SOME GUSTY WINDS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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