Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Wilmington, OH

988 
WGUS71 KILN 200409 RRA
FFSILN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1209 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2016

KYC015-023-037-117-191-OHC015-025-200419-
/O.EXP.KILN.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-161020T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KENTON KY-PENDLETON KY-BRACKEN KY-CAMPBELL KY-BOONE KY-CLERMONT OH-
BROWN OH-
1209 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR KENTON...NORTHERN PENDLETON...NORTHERN
BRACKEN...CAMPBELL...CENTRAL BOONE...SOUTHERN CLERMONT AND BROWN
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1215 AM EDT...

FLOOD WATERS HAVE RECEDED AND ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT
TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEED ANY ROAD CLOSURES.

PLEASE REPORT PREVIOUS FLASH FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BY GOING TO OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMITTING YOUR REPORT
VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

LAT...LON 3876 8386 3877 8390 3876 8391 3878 8453
      3879 8453 3879 8460 3907 8462 3906 8442
      3902 8432 3905 8431 3900 8368 3875 8370

$$

CONIGLIO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
837 PM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional showers and thunderstorms will be possible tonight as
a boundary lifts slowly north across the Ohio Valley. This
boundary will push back through the area Thursday into Thursday
night, resulting in a continued chance for showers and
thunderstorms. A drier but much cooler airmass will settle into
the area for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
The frontal boundary remains nearly stationary near the Ohio River.
Clusters of thunderstorms have developed along and north of the
boundary. Though severe threat is diminishing with loss of daytime
heating, strong thunderstorms containing heavy rain will persist
tonight as the boundary lifts gradually north through the
overnight hours and additional waves ride up along the boundary.
This will allow for widespread pcpn to continue through tonight,
with convection trending northward according to latest models.
Surface based instabilities will drop off overnight, but with the
models hanging on to at least some weak elevated instabilities,
will go ahead and include at least a chance of some embedded
thunderstorms through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will pivot east across the region Thursday
into Friday. This will help push the cold front east through our
area Thursday into Thursday night. With additional waves moving up
along the front, widespread pcpn will continue through the day on
Thursday, before beginning to taper off from west to east
Thursday night. Some better instabilities will once again be
pulled up into our area ahead of the front, primarily along and
southeast of the I-71 corridor.

As the better shear sags southeast with the front through the
day, we may once again end up with a narrow corridor of overlap
between the better instability and increasing shear values. This
could result in a marginal severe threat across about the
southeast half of our area through Thursday afternoon. Temperatures
will likely end up being somewhat non diurnal, especially across
our northwest as we start to get into some better low level CAA
behind the front.

Low level CAA will continue through the day Friday with 850 mb
temperatures dropping down to below zero degrees celsius through
the afternoon. This will result well below normal temperatures
with highs on Friday only in the low to mid 50s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Saturday an upper level low will be pulling east of the area with
the upper level trough axis also just east of the region. 850 mb
temperatures will continue to remain rather cold for this time of
year (1 to 2 SD below normal via the NAEFS and GEFS) with both the
GFS and ECMWF showing values just below zero. During the day
Saturday low level thicknesses and temperatures will slowly start to
warm but will remain low enough to keep high temperatures below
normal for this time of year. On the back side of the upper level
low the CMC/ GFS/ ECMWF are hinting at some possible wrap around
weak showers forming Saturday so have kept low chance PoPs in the
forecast. Any showers that do form will be weak though and with
PWATs around 0.35" coverage should be low.

Monday another shortwave will dive south and rotate around the upper
level low over Quebec with a weak surface cold front pushing through
the area Monday morning. The ECMWF is more progressive with the
shortwave and surface cold front while the CMC and GFS is about 6 -
12 hours slower. Either way the better upper level forcing (PVA) all
slides east of the area with PWATs remaining around or below 0.75".
Due to the mentioned above have kept the area dry Monday into
Tuesday. As of now the cold front also looks rather weak across our
area. The upper level trough axis remains east of the region keeping
the heart of the coldest air east as well. Towards the end of the
long term mid-level heights will start to rise across Ohio (576-580
dam). This will equate to rising high temperatures and above normal
temperatures Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Slow moving boundary will continue to plague aviation concerns.
Thunderstorms containing IFR will affect TAF sites tonight. CVG
and LUK will see the most impact to start being near the
boundary. Northern sites will receive somewhat weaker
thunderstorms later tonight as the boundary lifts north of the
Ohio River.

A potent wave of low pressure will travel up the front late
tonight through Thursday. This feature will provide extra moisture
convergence and lift to result in widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms. Model soundings indicate ceilings below 1000 ft in
the IFR category at northern sites, while southern sites CVG and
LUK enjoy slightly higher ceilings in the MVFR range. Gradual
improvement may begin at CVG after 00z Friday as the system
translates east. Winds will shift from southeast to north, with
gusts over 20 knots possible at DAY.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities likely Thursday
night into Friday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Haines
AVIATION...Coniglio

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
706 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-201100-
WAYNE-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-
MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-
706 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
FLOODING TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ058-059-066-OHZ060>065-070>074-080-082-201100-
FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HIGHLAND-PIKE-
706 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND
WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ077>079-081-088-201100-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-ADAMS-SCIOTO-
706 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING TONIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
715 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             1 S UNION               38.94N 84.67W
10/19/2016  M1.00 INCH       BOONE              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
730 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     HAIL             INDEPENDENCE            38.95N 84.55W
10/19/2016  M1.75 INCH       KENTON             KY   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
743 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BURLINGTON              39.02N 84.72W
10/19/2016                   BOONE              KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOONE
            COUNTY

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
818 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     INDEPENDENCE            38.95N 84.55W
10/19/2016                   KENTON             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS KENTON COUNTY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
832 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CROSS PLAINS            38.94N 85.20W
10/19/2016                   RIPLEY             IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ALONG COUNTY ROAD 1050 S. ALSO SOME
            MINOR STREET FLOODING IN THE AREA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
848 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE NEW RICHMOND      38.89N 84.23W
10/19/2016                   CLERMONT           OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE DOWN NEAR POINT PLEASANT

&&