Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1143 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

Isolated storms are anticipated late this afternoon/evening within
another moist/uncapped pbl. H925-H85 morning map analysis suggested
that limited mixing of the afternoon dewpoint will occur leading to
higher mlcapes as well as higher heat indices across central KS and
a heat advisory was issued for Barton and Russell counties. Other
storms developing over northwest KS ahead of a subtle wave lifting
over the Rockies may propagate toward central/south central KS this
evening and tonight....but slow storm motions may keep much of the
activity west of the area. Any storm that can propagate into the
area cold become severe and maintained a mention in the hazardous
weather outlook. H85 ridging over the Ohio Valley area should allow
drier air to advect over the Central Plains states through the
weekend while H7 temperatures are progged to rise resulting in an
increasing cap strength and decreasing chances for precipitation.
The good news is that afternoon humidities will drop keeping heat
indices a bit lower.

Monday...A shortwave trough moving over Manitoba/Ontario will drive
a cold front south over the Northern/Central Plains states late Mon.
The GFS has trended toward the ECMWF slowing the frontal surge on
Monday keeping it stalled near I-80.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

A diffuse front may arrive Tuesday bringing increasing chances
for showers and storms. The next challenge will be how fast the
mid/upper ridge builds back over the Central Conus. The GFS keeps
the ridge southwest of the area allowing a NW flow regime to
impact the region while the ECMWF is much faster building the
ridge back over the area. Maintained low pops in the Tue-Wed
periods while trending warmer and dry toward the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

A line of showers/thunderstorms will continue to spread slowly
southeast across the region overnight with gusty northwest winds.
The storms will diminish towards daybreak with winds switching
around to the east/southeast during the day on Saturday. Meanwhile
VFR conditions will prevail as the storms dissipate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    74  96  72  97 /  30  10   0   0
Hutchinson      72  97  70  98 /  80  10  10   0
Newton          73  96  69  97 /  30  10   0   0
ElDorado        73  95  69  96 /  20  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   72  95  71  95 /  30  10   0   0
Russell         71  98  71 100 /  80  10  10   0
Great Bend      71  98  71  99 /  80  10  10   0
Salina          71  96  70  99 /  40  10  10   0
McPherson       72  96  70  98 /  70  10  10   0
Coffeyville     74  93  69  94 /  10  10   0   0
Chanute         72  93  68  95 /  10  10   0   0
Iola            72  92  68  95 /  10  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    73  93  70  95 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
817 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-190130-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
817 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
WINDS TO 65 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY
AND COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL KANSAS ON TUESDAY BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS. SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
907 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

KSZ047-180300-
BARTON KS-
907 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN BARTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 905 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TIMKEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
  MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GREAT BEND...HOISINGTON...PAWNEE ROCK...ALBERT...OLMITZ...
  GALATIA...SUSANK AND GREAT BEND AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 9903 3870 9875 3826 9877 3826 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 237DEG 16KT 3850 9914

CARUSO

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