Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
632 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

Isolated storms are anticipated late this afternoon/evening within
another moist/uncapped pbl. H925-H85 morning map analysis suggested
that limited mixing of the afternoon dewpoint will occur leading to
higher mlcapes as well as higher heat indices across central KS and
a heat advisory was issued for Barton and Russell counties. Other
storms developing over northwest KS ahead of a subtle wave lifting
over the Rockies may propagate toward central/south central KS this
evening and tonight....but slow storm motions may keep much of the
activity west of the area. Any storm that can propagate into the
area cold become severe and maintained a mention in the hazardous
weather outlook. H85 ridging over the Ohio Valley area should allow
drier air to advect over the Central Plains states through the
weekend while H7 temperatures are progged to rise resulting in an
increasing cap strength and decreasing chances for precipitation.
The good news is that afternoon humidities will drop keeping heat
indices a bit lower.

Monday...A shortwave trough moving over Manitoba/Ontario will drive
a cold front south over the Northern/Central Plains states late Mon.
The GFS has trended toward the ECMWF slowing the frontal surge on
Monday keeping it stalled near I-80.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

A diffuse front may arrive Tuesday bringing increasing chances
for showers and storms. The next challenge will be how fast the
mid/upper ridge builds back over the Central Conus. The GFS keeps
the ridge southwest of the area allowing a NW flow regime to
impact the region while the ECMWF is much faster building the
ridge back over the area. Maintained low pops in the Tue-Wed
periods while trending warmer and dry toward the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

Numerous thunderstorms continue to develop over Northwest Kansas
southeast towards Central Kansas. Some of this activity will
spread into Central Kansas tonight. We could see some light fog
again over Southeast Kansas around daybreak. Otherwise expecting
easterly winds and VFR conditions to prevail for all TAF sites
there after on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    74  96  72  97 /  20  10   0   0
Hutchinson      72  97  70  98 /  20  10  10   0
Newton          73  96  69  97 /  20  10   0   0
ElDorado        73  95  69  96 /  20  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   72  95  71  95 /  20  10   0   0
Russell         71  98  71 100 /  40  10  10   0
Great Bend      71  98  71  99 /  40  10  10   0
Salina          71  96  70  99 /  20  10  10   0
McPherson       72  96  70  98 /  20  10  10   0
Coffeyville     74  93  69  94 /  20  10   0   0
Chanute         72  93  68  95 /  20  10   0   0
Iola            72  92  68  95 /  20  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    73  93  70  95 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ033-
048>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-047.

&&

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
817 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-190130-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
817 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
WINDS TO 65 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY
AND COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL KANSAS ON TUESDAY BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS. SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
808 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

KSZ032-180130-
RUSSELL KS-
808 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  RUSSELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 806 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EMMERAM...AND IS NEARLY
  STATIONARY.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RUSSELL...GORHAM...LURAY...MILBERGER...BUNKER HILL...PARADISE...
  WALDO AND RUSSELL AIRPORT.

LAT...LON 3913 9904 3913 9866 3871 9868 3871 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 239DEG 51KT 3897 9908

METZGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
841 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

KSZ032-180245-
RUSSELL KS-
841 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  RUSSELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 838 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EMMERAM AND IS NEARLY
  STATIONARY.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RUSSELL...GORHAM...LURAY...MILBERGER...BUNKER HILL...PARADISE...
  WALDO...RUSSELL AIRPORT AND WILSON LAKE.

LAT...LON 3913 9903 3913 9863 3870 9862 3870 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 252DEG 10KT 3896 9905

METZGER