Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEMI-DIFFUSE DRYLINE LOCATED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SALINA TO
MEDICINE LODGE. CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ERUPT ALONG THE DRYLINE
JUST TO THE EAST OF P28.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AIRMASS DESTABILIZING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AS THE CLEARING CONTINUES...WITH MOST AREAS SLOWLY BECOMING
UNCAPPED. LATEST HI-RES MODELS (NAMNEST/ARW) SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE OK
PANHANDLE ROTATES EAST. GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS...THINK A BROKEN LINE OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. BETTER BULK SHEAR IS
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...SO THINK THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
BE LOCATED ALONG OR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400. AS THE SUPERCELLS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KS PROGRESS TO THE EAST...THERE IS A A REMOTE CHANCE
OF A TORNADO...WHERE 0-1 KM SHEAR IS AROUND 20 KTS...BUT THINK THIS
CHANCE IS VERY SLIM...AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MARGINAL AND BETTER A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN OK.  PREFER TO EMPHASIZE THE LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE
FLINT HILLS AND SE KS.  BUT THE FURTHER EAST THE STORMS GET THE LESS
ORGANIZED THEY WILL BE...GIVEN THE BETTER BULK SHEAR SHIFTING INTO
SW MO BETWEEN 00-06Z.  SO MORE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT.

MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING...
WITH MOST OF THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT.
SHOULD SEE A NICE WARMUP ON TUE...AS S-SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WITH MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 80S.

LATEST GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW THE LOW MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNING TO
THE AREA FOR TUE EVENING/NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KS.  EXPECT THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KS FOR LATE TUE EVENING OR POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT TUE...WITH CONVERGENCE INCREASING ENOUGH FOR A STRONG
STORM CHANCE...LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS FROM KSLN TO KCNU.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS INTO SE KS
ON WED...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE FLINT
HILLS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED. BOTH THE GFS/NAM/WRF SHOW THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OR BEING SITUATED ACROSS SE KS FOR LATE
WED AFTERNOON...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS SE KS FOR LATE WED AFTERNOON OR WED EVENING. SO WILL KEEP
POPS GOING FOR MOST OF SE KS FOR WED EVENING.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THU WILL PLAY OUT.
THE NAM/WRF BLOWS UP A COMPLEX OF STORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND
DROPS IT E-SE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR LATE
WED NIGHT. WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THIS COMPLEX FURTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PREFER TO KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL KS DRY FOR NOW...AND GO
WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS SOLUTION.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME WILL PLAY OUT.  THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG THE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES.  THE GFS FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE FASTER AND
ALLOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO THE PLAINS FASTER...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A MORE UNSETTLED WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A LOT
DRIER AND KEEPS THE MOISTURE RETURN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER.  FOR CONSENSUS SAKE PREFER THE WETTER GFS
SOLUTION...KEEPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

MAIN THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH MID-LATE
EVENING. THIS STORM ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE CNU TERMINAL WITH
POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER
BEHIND THIS CLUSTER TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A MOISTENED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD
LEAD TO MVFR/IFR STRATUS CEILINGS OVER THE FLINT HILLS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  86  63  77 /  60  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      55  86  59  73 /  30  10  20  30
NEWTON          57  85  61  75 /  60  10  20  30
ELDORADO        58  85  63  79 /  70  10  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  86  64  80 /  70  10  20  20
RUSSELL         53  84  54  69 /  20  10  40  30
GREAT BEND      53  85  54  70 /  20  10  30  30
SALINA          55  85  58  72 /  40  10  30  30
MCPHERSON       55  85  58  72 /  30  10  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     62  84  65  82 /  70  10  20  40
CHANUTE         62  83  64  80 /  70  10  20  40
IOLA            62  83  64  79 /  80  10  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    62  84  65  81 /  70  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KETCHAM
LONG TERM...KETCHAM
AVIATION...JMC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
902 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-110215-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
902 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS, SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
FOR THOSE COUNTIES BORDERING THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE UNTIL LATE
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR
SIZE...WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE ARE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE PROBABLE. AT THIS TIME...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED IN FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL
LATE THIS EVENING...FOR THOSE COUNTIES CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
903 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

KSZ093-100230-
COWLEY KS-
903 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN COWLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 901 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OXFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
  MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WINFIELD...UDALL...ROCK AND WINFIELD CITY LAKE.

LAT...LON 3726 9715 3742 9715 3747 9706 3748 9689
      3747 9682 3725 9683 3723 9714
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 219DEG 15KT 3729 9711

METZGER

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