Alert archive / Kansas / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

May 9, 2016Chautauqua County, Kansas

NWS Wichita, KS issued this special weather statement at May 9, 2016, 8:49 PM CDT for Chautauqua County, Kansas. It was in force for 26 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 9, 2016, 8:49 PM CDT (01:49 UTC)
Expired: May 9, 2016, 9:15 PM CDT
In force: 26 min
Issued by: NWS Wichita, KS

County Chautauqua County, KS

The radar

The Wichita radar (KICT), 110 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 00:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 211 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1656 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -4 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1273 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 59 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 127 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Wichita, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 9, 6:49 PM CDT, 2 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 9, 6:49 PM CDT, 2 hours before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEMI-DIFFUSE DRYLINE LOCATED ROUGHLY
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SALINA TO
MEDICINE LODGE. CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ERUPT ALONG THE DRYLINE
JUST TO THE EAST OF P28.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AIRMASS DESTABILIZING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AS THE CLEARING CONTINUES...WITH MOST AREAS SLOWLY BECOMING
UNCAPPED. LATEST HI-RES MODELS (NAMNEST/ARW) SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...AS A SHORTWAVE IN THE OK
PANHANDLE ROTATES EAST. GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS...THINK A BROKEN LINE OF DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. BETTER BULK SHEAR IS
LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...SO THINK THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
BE LOCATED ALONG OR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400. AS THE SUPERCELLS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KS PROGRESS TO THE EAST...THERE IS A A REMOTE CHANCE
OF A TORNADO...WHERE 0-1 KM SHEAR IS AROUND 20 KTS...BUT THINK THIS
CHANCE IS VERY SLIM...AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MARGINAL AND BETTER A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH IN OK.  PREFER TO EMPHASIZE THE LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

AS THE EVENING WEARS ON...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE
FLINT HILLS AND SE KS.  BUT THE FURTHER EAST THE STORMS GET THE LESS
ORGANIZED THEY WILL BE...GIVEN THE BETTER BULK SHEAR SHIFTING INTO
SW MO BETWEEN 00-06Z.  SO MORE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT.

MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY TUE MORNING...
WITH MOST OF THE AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT.
SHOULD SEE A NICE WARMUP ON TUE...AS S-SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...WITH MAX TEMPS ALMOST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 80S.

LATEST GFS AND NAM/WRF SHOW THE LOW MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNING TO
THE AREA FOR TUE EVENING/NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE
PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KS.  EXPECT THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KS FOR LATE TUE EVENING OR POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT TUE...WITH CONVERGENCE INCREASING ENOUGH FOR A STRONG
STORM CHANCE...LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS FROM KSLN TO KCNU.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS INTO SE KS
ON WED...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE FLINT
HILLS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WED. BOTH THE GFS/NAM/WRF SHOW THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING OR BEING SITUATED ACROSS SE KS FOR LATE
WED AFTERNOON...WITH THE MODELS SHOWING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS SE KS FOR LATE WED AFTERNOON OR WED EVENING. SO WILL KEEP
POPS GOING FOR MOST OF SE KS FOR WED EVENING.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW OVERNIGHT WED INTO EARLY THU WILL PLAY OUT.
THE NAM/WRF BLOWS UP A COMPLEX OF STORMS ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND
DROPS IT E-SE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR LATE
WED NIGHT. WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THIS COMPLEX FURTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PREFER TO KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL KS DRY FOR NOW...AND GO
WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS SOLUTION.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE THU-SAT TIME FRAME WILL PLAY OUT.  THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW STRONG THE MID-UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES.  THE GFS FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE FASTER AND
ALLOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN BACK INTO THE PLAINS FASTER...WHICH
WOULD SUGGEST A MORE UNSETTLED WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A LOT
DRIER AND KEEPS THE MOISTURE RETURN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER.  FOR CONSENSUS SAKE PREFER THE WETTER GFS
SOLUTION...KEEPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

MAIN THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH MID-LATE
EVENING. THIS STORM ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE CNU TERMINAL WITH
POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER
BEHIND THIS CLUSTER TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A MOISTENED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD
LEAD TO MVFR/IFR STRATUS CEILINGS OVER THE FLINT HILLS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  86  63  77 /  60  10  20  30
HUTCHINSON      55  86  59  73 /  30  10  20  30
NEWTON          57  85  61  75 /  60  10  20  30
ELDORADO        58  85  63  79 /  70  10  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  86  64  80 /  70  10  20  20
RUSSELL         53  84  54  69 /  20  10  40  30
GREAT BEND      53  85  54  70 /  20  10  30  30
SALINA          55  85  58  72 /  40  10  30  30
MCPHERSON       55  85  58  72 /  30  10  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     62  84  65  82 /  70  10  20  40
CHANUTE         62  83  64  80 /  70  10  20  40
IOLA            62  83  64  79 /  80  10  20  40
PARSONS-KPPF    62  84  65  81 /  70  10  20  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KETCHAM
LONG TERM...KETCHAM
AVIATION...JMC

Hazardous weather outlook, May 9, 7:17 PM CDT, 1 hour 32 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
717 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-110030-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
717 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS, SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...MAINLY EAST
OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE AND CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THE MAIN
STORM THREATS WILL BE HAIL OF QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE...WIND
GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PUSH OUT OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE ARE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE PROBABLE. AT THIS TIME...THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE AND CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 9, 8:09 PM CDT, 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
809 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     HAIL             NNE ARKANSAS CITY       37.07N 97.04W
05/09/2016  M0.88 INCH       COWLEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

JMR

Special weather statement, May 9, 8:16 PM CDT, 33 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
816 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

KSZ070-071-094-095-100145-
WOODSON KS-ELK KS-WILSON KS-GREENWOOD KS-
816 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WOODSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  EASTERN ELK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  WESTERN WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 814 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TORONTO...OR 15 MILES EAST OF
  EUREKA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FREDONIA...YATES CENTER...LONGTON...TORONTO...SEVERY...BUFFALO...FALL
  RIVER...ELK FALLS...BENEDICT...CLIMAX...VIRGIL...NEW ALBANY...COYVILLE...
  FALL RIVER LAKE...TORONTO LAKE...BUXTON...FALL RIVER STATE PARK...CROSS
  TIMBERS STATE PARK...BATESVILLE AND ROSE.

LAT...LON 3736 9622 3775 9628 3804 9596 3804 9569
      3744 9567
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 226DEG 30KT 3776 9601

METZGER

Local storm report, May 9, 8:27 PM CDT, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
827 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 PM     HAIL             TORONTO                 37.80N 95.95W
05/09/2016  M1.00 INCH       WOODSON            KS   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORT RELAYED VIA NWSCHAT

&&

JMR

Local storm report, May 9, 8:33 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
833 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     HAIL             7 E ARKANSAS CITY       37.07N 96.91W
05/09/2016  E0.88 INCH       COWLEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            JUST WEST OF SILVERDALE.

&&

BDK

Special weather statement, May 9, 8:37 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
837 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

KSZ071-095-100200-
WOODSON KS-WILSON KS-
837 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WOODSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 833 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR TORONTO...OR
  13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YATES CENTER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FREDONIA...YATES CENTER...ALTOONA...BUFFALO...NEOSHO FALLS...PIQUA...
  BENEDICT...COYVILLE...BATESVILLE...ROSE AND TORONTO LAKE.

LAT...LON 3744 9591 3804 9591 3804 9552 3746 9553
TIME...MOT...LOC 0133Z 273DEG 24KT 3773 9591

METZGER

Special weather statement, May 9, 8:49 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
849 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

KSZ093-098-100215-
CHAUTAUQUA KS-COWLEY KS-
849 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN COWLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT

* AT 847 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CEDAR VALE...MOVING EAST AT 50
  MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SEDAN...CEDAR VALE...PERU AND CHAUTAUQUA.

LAT...LON 3726 9659 3730 9615 3730 9607 3701 9604
      3700 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 256DEG 41KT 3711 9652

METZGER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Wichita, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 9, 7:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ICT	Cowley, Sumner	45 min
May 9, 7:03 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Greenwood	27 min
May 9, 7:34 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Chautauqua	26 min
May 9, 7:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Elk, Greenwood	34 min
May 9, 7:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ICT	Cowley, Sumner	46 min
May 9, 8:07 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Sumner	23 min
May 9, 8:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Wilson, Woodson	29 min
May 9, 8:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ICT	Cowley	39 min
May 9, 8:37 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Wilson, Woodson	23 min
May 9, 9:03 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Cowley	27 min
May 9, 9:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ICT	Cowley	33 min
May 9, 9:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Cowley	33 min
May 9, 9:51 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Chautauqua	24 min
May 9, 9:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Labette, Montgomery	35 min
May 9, 10:52 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ICT	Labette	23 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Kansas, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.