Areal Flood Warning 29, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1129 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Water vapor imagery still shows the main upper energy back over
the desert southwest with a weak impulse now lifting over western
CO into NW NM. At the surface, there are a number of
outflow/gravity waves south and southwest of our forecast area.
The more robust one stretches from nw of KOKC to near KGCK with a
more subtle one extending from KEND to near KDDC. A storm have
developed on the boundary over north central OK and is now diving
southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Confidence is high that surface based storms will develop near the
intersection of the dryline and outflow after 4pm which will be
over SW KS/OK panhandle. This activity will slowly migrate east
this evening and may grow upscale as 850-700mb theta-e advection
ramps up. How far east surface based storms make it and where
additional elevated convection form is very uncertain. It's not
out of the question that the surface based storms die off as they
approach western flank of forecast area as elevated storms develop
near or north of I-70 later. For now, the general theme of higher severe
chances generally west of I-135 looks good for tonight, with low
confidence in how far east the more robust convection makes it.

Weak upper energy will track of the central/northern Rockies for
Wed and will push the better moisture east, generally east of
I-135. The big question for storms Wed afternoon/evening will be
whether there will be enough surface convergence to get storms to
develop as the dryline washes out and becomes much less defined.
While the better surface convergence remains down in OK Wed, will
linger some small pops in case a storm or two can develop Wed
afternoon/early evening. If a storm can develop, it would quickly
become severe with greater than 3,500J/KG of CAPE.

The main vort lobe looks to lift out across the Plains for the
Thu-Fri time period. By 00z Fri this feature will be over southern
CO/northern NM and by 00z Sat will be out over western KS. This
should allow for better areal coverage for storms late Thu
afternoon/evening. At this time thinking that the dryline will
setup just west of our forecast area Thu, generally from Medicine
Lodge to near Hays. Storms that develop in this area would have a
good chance of affecting locations along and west of I-135. With
deep layer shear increasing and high instability remaining, higher
end severe looks possible Thu afternoon/evening with any storms
that develop along the dryline. Storms should become more numerous
Fri for much of the forecast area as the upper wave starts to
directly impact central/eastern KS. While severe storms will be
possible with any storm Fri, upper winds will back ahead of the
upper wave, reducing good directional shear above 850mb. So while
the higher end severe may not be as likely, the number of storms
affecting central and eastern Kansas will be higher Fri.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

By 12z Sat there is good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF that
the upper wave will be lifting over northeast KS, pushing the
better convective chances northeast of the forecast area. However,
we quickly get back into SW flow aloft, albeit weak. This will
allow the better low level moisture to lift back across the
central Plains. What makes it tough through these extended periods
is the lack of a surface focus or distinct upper wave to focus on.
In addition, upper winds will be considerably weaker than the
current sw flow pattern we are in. So, with plenty of instability
it will not take much to get a storm to develop. Have a slight
lean toward the better storm chances being at night with low level
jet processes helping initiate storms. Confidence is high that
temps will be close to or slightly above seasonal normals through
this extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Evolving mesoscale convective system over central Kansas will
move east overnight with brief periods of IFR/MVFR VSBYS in
heavy rain and strong, gusty winds. Some MVFR CIGS can also
be expected Wednesday morning. A moist south to southeast wind
will continue on Wednesday and become gusty along and east of
the I-135 corridor. Some late day convection is also possible
though probably more isolated in nature.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  87  69  86 /  50  20  10  30
Hutchinson      66  88  67  85 /  80  10  10  30
Newton          67  87  68  85 /  80  20  10  30
ElDorado        67  87  70  85 /  60  20  20  30
Winfield-KWLD   68  87  71  85 /  40  20  10  30
Russell         63  87  59  86 /  80  10  10  40
Great Bend      64  88  60  87 /  80  10  10  30
Salina          64  88  66  88 /  80  20  20  30
McPherson       65  88  67  85 /  80  20  10  30
Coffeyville     68  84  71  85 /  40  30  20  20
Chanute         68  84  71  85 /  40  30  20  20
Iola            67  84  70  85 /  40  30  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    68  84  71  85 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1027 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-260330-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1027 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
AFFECT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
THE MAIN RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND HAIL
UP TO QUARTER SIZE. A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT
1 AM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH MINOR
LOWLAND FLOODING LIKELY IN SOME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-135. ANY
STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY WITH THE
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF
I-135 WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AREA WIDE ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 54 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 14.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1240 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

KSZ047-250630-
BARTON KS-
1240 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN BARTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 130 AM CDT

* AT 1239 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OLMITZ...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST
  OF HOISINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HOISINGTON...ALBERT...OLMITZ...SUSANK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3850 9903 3870 9889 3869 9848 3835 9885
      3845 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0539Z 218DEG 27KT 3847 9892

DARMOFAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1245 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

KSZ070-071-094-095-250630-
WOODSON KS-ELK KS-WILSON KS-GREENWOOD KS-
1245 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WOODSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  NORTHERN ELK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 130 AM CDT

* AT 1244 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES
  EAST OF MADISON TO 9 MILES EAST OF LATHAM...AND MOVING EAST AT 30
  MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EUREKA...YATES CENTER...TORONTO...SEVERY...FALL RIVER...
  NEOSHO FALLS...PIEDMONT...CLIMAX...VIRGIL...NEW ALBANY...
  COYVILLE...FALL RIVER LAKE...TORONTO LAKE...
  FALL RIVER STATE PARK...ROSE...
  CROSS TIMBERS STATE PARK AND BATESVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3751 9591 3753 9652 3756 9652 3813 9599
      3813 9596 3804 9596 3804 9552 3795 9552
TIME...MOT...LOC 0544Z 270DEG 24KT 3811 9597 3757 9648

DARMOFAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
119 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

KSZ047-048-050-250645-
ELLSWORTH KS-BARTON KS-RICE KS-
119 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN ELLSWORTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN BARTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN RICE COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 145 AM CDT

* AT 117 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLAFLIN...MOVING EAST AT 30
  MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LYONS...ELLINWOOD...CLAFLIN...CHASE...HOLYROOD...BUSHTON...
  LORRAINE...ODIN...FREDERICK...SILICA AND CHEYENNE BOTTOMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3836 9872 3856 9873 3860 9822 3834 9821
TIME...MOT...LOC 0617Z 261DEG 27KT 3846 9861

DARMOFAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
125 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

KSZ070>072-094>096-099-250700-
WOODSON KS-ELK KS-WILSON KS-ALLEN KS-GREENWOOD KS-NEOSHO KS-
MONTGOMERY KS-
125 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WOODSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  ELK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  WESTERN ALLEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN NEOSHO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 200 AM CDT

* AT 122 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES
  NORTHWEST OF YATES CENTER TO MOLINE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CHANUTE...IOLA...NEODESHA...FREDONIA...HUMBOLDT...YATES CENTER...
  HOWARD...GAS...ALTOONA...MOLINE...LONGTON...TORONTO...SEVERY...
  BUFFALO...GRENOLA...FALL RIVER...NEOSHO FALLS...ELK FALLS...
  SYCAMORE AND PIQUA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3732 9562 3732 9647 3804 9592 3804 9529
TIME...MOT...LOC 0622Z 270DEG 31KT 3800 9583 3739 9632

DARMOFAL