Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
834 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 830 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Looks like the warm front is now just moving out of our cwa and is
heading into mid TN. Meanwhile a slow moving cdfnt in now extending
over sern MO. Models are still showing a lot of low level shear this
evening and into the overnight hours. However with the warm front
progged to be out of our cwa overnight, the threat of svr wx should
begin to weaken a little after midnight. As the boundary layer cools
and becomes a little more stable overnight, the svr wx threat should
become more of a hvy rain event with some flash flooding possible.
Otherwise the current fcst looks good and see no reason to make any
changes attm.

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 136 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Convection, perhaps near-severe in sports or slowly diminishing,
will still be ongoing across our eastern counties at 12z on
Wednesday. The upper trough axis will push across by early afternoon
ushering in the "cooler" air. Will taper pops from west to east and
also temporally with all areas rain free by afternoon.

Weak surface high will build across the region Wednesday night into
Thursday with sunny and slightly below normal temperatures
anticipated.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 136 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Fairly strong cold air advection will continue to advect drier air
into the area Thursday/Thursday night, via northwesterly flow. In
addition, light winds will continue over the Tennessee Valley, as
the surface high will not have moved much. This will allow for a
very good radiational cooling event by Friday morning. It should
allow lows to drop to near dewpoints to around 30 degrees.
Temperatures should rebound to near normal highs during the day on
Friday.

Models all develop a more zonal flow aloft originating from Texas,
as the high pressure remains over the area through Friday night. This
will be in response to a cut-off low that develops over the
southwestern U.S. This should keep highs and lows through Friday
night near normal/slightly above normal (normal highs mid to upper
50s/normal lows mid to upper 30s).

Models do advect deeper moisture eastward into the Tennessee Valley
ahead of it Saturday through Sunday. How far north the deeper
moisture gets and thus rainfall is the difference in the model
forecasts. At this point, including a blend for the forecast.
Saturday night through Sunday are keeping a 30 to 60 percent chance
of rain in the forecast. This likely will be the best time for more
widespread precipitation, but how much greatly depends on which model
solution is correct.

Early next week remains active, as the cut-off low kicks northeast
along the jetstream into Arkansas and into Kentucky. There could be
some stronger thunderstorm potential with this system, but too far
off to address at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 525 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

A warm front will move north across the cwa tonight while a slow
moving cold front will finally push across the TN valley by
Wednesday aftn. This wx scenario will produce a good chc of shra and
tsra over the taf sites tonight thru much of Wednesday mrng. The best
chc of strong to severe tsra will be tonight. The shra and tsra
activity will begin to taper off by Wednesday aftn. Otherwise vfr
conditions until 02z...after 02z expect mainly ifr conditions thru
18z with vfr conditions after 81z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...007
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...KTW
AVIATION...007

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
704 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-301200-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
704 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND BRIEF TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR LAUDERDALE...COLBERT AND FRANKLIN ALABAMA COUNTIES
UNTIL 11 PM CST. THE REST OF NORTHERN ALABAMA AND OUR TENNESSEE
COUNTIES HAS A TORNADO WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY BUT MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITS TO OUR EAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
IN PROGRESS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
641 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     HAIL             RED BAY                 34.44N 88.14W
11/29/2016  E0.88 INCH       FRANKLIN           AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN RED BAY.

&&

KULA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
804 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WNW LITTLEVILLE       34.62N 87.75W
11/29/2016                   COLBERT            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ALONG UNDERWOOD
            MOUNTAIN ROAD IN TUSCUMBIA. HOME DAMAGED AS WELL WITH TWO
            INJURIES. POSSIBLE TORNADO. RELAYED BY COLBERT EOC.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
821 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WSW CROOKED OAK         34.58N 87.81W
11/29/2016                   COLBERT            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ALONG FRANKFORT AND WAGNON MOUNTAIN ROADS.
            RELAYED BY COLBERT EOC.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
833 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WSW FLORENCE            34.80N 87.68W
11/29/2016                   LAUDERDALE         AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TWO FEET OF WATER ALONG TENNESSEE AND LOCUST ROADS IN
            FLORENCE. INTERSECTION BEING CLOSED. PERSON TRAPPED IN
            VEHICLE AS WELL. RELAYED BY FLORENCE PD.

&&