Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1205 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016

.AVIATION...
LINE OF STORMS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT
THIS TIME. THESE STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE TO THE COAST NEAR
SUNRISE...THEN POSSIBLY STALL NEAR THIS AREA. SHORT-RANGE MODELS
NOT INDICATING MUCH ACTIVITY AFTER THIS INITIAL LINE BY THE AFTN
HRS BUT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF SEEMS TO
BE ON THE SLOW SIDE. DAYTIME HEATING COULD HELP PRODUCE ADDITION-
AL SCATTERED ACTIVITY LATER TODAY. DRIER AIR/CLEARING MAY NOT BE
ON THE MENU UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURS MORNING. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016/

CURRENT FCST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST AND WILL BE MOVING THRU SE TX OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT COVERAGE TO EXPAND LOCALLY AS INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER
FLOW ENCOUNTERS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED INLAND.
LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING TWO POSSIBLE AREAS TO KEEP AN EYE ON
OVERNIGHT. THE FIRST AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS HUNG UP. THE SECOND IS AN AREA SITUATED FROM
MAYBE CLL-LFK WHERE AN AREA OF H85 SPEED CONVERGENCE IS FCST TO
SET UP. REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS TO HOW THE MESOSCALE PLAYS OUT BUT
BOTH AREAS SEEM PLAUSIBLE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG STORMS
LOOK TO REMAIN POSSIBLE. HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRECIP MIGHT MOVE
OUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN WHAT'S CURRENTLY IN THE FCST. BUT RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENCY HASN'T BEEN ALL THAT GREAT...SO THERE'S
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THAT REGARD. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      60  72  57  78  58 /  80  50  10  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              63  73  59  79  59 /  80  70  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            66  72  64  75  67 /  80  80  20   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-132100-
BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-
SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WASHINGTON-
346 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT
STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TXZ200-210>214-226-227-235>238-132100-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-
JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-WALLER-WHARTON-
346 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREATS
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH TOTAL REACHING 1 TO
2 INCHES WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE MAIN THREATS STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-132100-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
346 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG AT TIMES DENSE MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1/2
MILE AT TIMES. FOG WILL LINGER OVER MOST OF THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE AREAS OF FOG WILL BE MORE COMMON SOUTH OF
FREEPORT OUT TO 60 NM. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE GULF WATERS ON WEDNESDAY
AND MAY LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Houston/Galveston TX
133 AM CDT WED APR 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WEIMAR                  29.70N  96.78W
04/13/2016                   COLORADO           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE LIMBS AND POSSIBLE ROOF DAMAGE IN WEIMAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1600029

39