River Flood Warning 161, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
705 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.AVIATION...
The bulk of this morning's TSRA activity now exiting east into the
Sabine River Valley this hour. Other than some light showers over
the next few hours...it should be quiet (generally VFR) as the
regional air mass recharges through the early afternoon. Satellite
imagery depicts quite a bit of dry air moving in from the west...but
can't completely rule out a mid to late afternoon thunderstorm. The
kicker would be another weak disturbance passage latter today ahead
of the Rocky Mountain upper low as it lifts out into the Plains
early Saturday. The only caveat to the late period may be the
(re)development of MVFR decks per weaker winds over wet ground. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Very dangerous flash flood and severe weather threat continues across
portions of Southeast Texas early this morning mainly to the north of
Interstate 10. Locations north of the Interstate that received amazing
and record shattering rainfall totals during the past 12 to 18 hours
remain at greatest risk for life threatening flash flooding as more
very heavy rainfall moves into the area from the west. A Flash Flood
Emergency is in effect until 815 AM for these areas generally between
College Station and Bellville then eastward to just west of The Woodlands.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect today for a large part of Southeast
Texas. In addition to the flood threat, there is a risk for severe
thunderstorms with this storm system, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
is in effect for a large part of the area until 10 AM. Expect to see
adjustments made to the watches and warnings as the day progresses.
42/31/45/14/43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      83  71  88  72  86 /  50  40  30  10  30
Houston (IAH)              85  74  88  73  87 /  50  40  30  10  30
Galveston (GLS)            83  77  83  78  82 /  70  20  20  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Colorado...Fort
     Bend...Grimes...Harris...Houston...Liberty...Madison...
     Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...
     Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
     Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 4 PM CDT this afternoon
     through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Galveston
     Bay...Matagorda Bay.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 4 PM CDT this afternoon
     through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal
     waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20
     NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
     Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from this evening through
     Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Waters from
     Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...
     Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

Discussion...48
Aviation/Marine...31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
424 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-281300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-
JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-
SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WHARTON-
424 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOOK FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG WINDS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON SATURDAY,
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY MIGHT BE ABLE TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED TODAY AND MIGHT BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY.

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