Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
719 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.AVIATION...
A nearly solid line of thunderstorms extends between Cleveland
and Brenham and is slowly drifting to the south toward the KIAH
airspace. I inserted a TEMPO for 3SM TSRA for th enext two hours with
hopes that the main thunderstorms will remain to the north of the
terminal. However, given the poor performance of our available
model guidance, I would not be surprised to see 1/2SM +TSRA within
the next two hours as the line continues to slowly drift to the
south.

A strong southeast flow continues to pump additional moisture in
to the thunderstorm complex while a train of upper level
disturbances and a split flow in the jetstream contribute to
generate sustained lift. It is likely that this system will
continue for the next few hours. We will likelyu get a break during
the early morning hours, however we expect a similar precipitation
scenario on Friday.

Terminals outside of the thunderstorm complex should remain MVFR
overnight. Those affected by the complex will rapidly experience
IFR/LIFR CIG and VIS conditions.                 Keehn

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Large MCS that developed over the northern parts of the CWA earl-
ier this afternoon will be continuing to move E/SE into the even-
ing hrs. Reports of tornadic damage have been largely confined to
Bryan/College Station area but reports of flooding have been more
widespread over Washington, Burleson, Brazos, Grimes, and Madison
counties. Given the current trends, not expecting things to quiet
down until late this evening. Of concern is the track of this MCS
toward Harris county during the next few hrs. Also seeing another
shortwave (per WV imagery) moving in from the W/SW...with an ext-
rapolated timing for this evening. A break from all the action is
progged for the overnight hours.

However...

Models are hitting SE TX with more unsettled wx for tomorrow with
another disturbance moving in from the SW. Upper jet dynamics and
low-level jet structure are progged to be a bit more favorable as
the very moist airmass remains in place. The main uncertainty may
be how unstable/worked over we will be (in the wake of the storms
today). But given how wet the pattern has been have opted to keep
POPS high for tomorrow.

The forecast for this upcoming holiday weekend looks to remain an
active one (though not as active as today/possibly tomorrow). The
seabreeze should be the main focus with daytime heating. Possible
embedded shortwaves within the persistent SW flow aloft could add
more lift (storms) to this scenario. Did lean more heavily on the
ECMWF in the extended. 41

MARINE...
The tight pressure gradient between a deep low over the OK/TX
Panhandles and a high over the southeastern U.S. will maintain a
strong southeasterly flow through Friday. Winds will likely
strengthen to SCA levels early this evening.  seas are running 4 to 6
feet and should increase to 5 to 8 feet on Friday

A persistent fetch from the Western Carribean combined with the
strong on shore flow will raise tide levels to near 3.5 feet above
MLLW on Friday morning. A coastal flood advisory will likely be
necessary on Friday morning's high tide along the Bolivar Peninsula.

Memorial Day weekend weather will be less active...a 10-15 knot
southeast wind over gradually lowering seas...3 to 4 foot wave
heights by late Saturday night through Sunday PM. Memorial Day will
be tranquil...very low rain chances and a near 10 knot onshore wind
over average 2 to 3 foot wave heights.             44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      73  83  71  88  72 /  70  80  50  40  10
Houston (IAH)              75  85  74  88  73 /  60  70  40  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            78  83  77  83  78 /  40  50  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Fort Bend...Grimes...
     Harris...Houston...Liberty...Madison...Montgomery...Polk...
     San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Friday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters
     from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
448 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-271200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-
JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-
SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WHARTON-
448 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOOK FOR INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
STRONG WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
720 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 PM     TORNADO          2 ESE BRYAN             30.66N  96.33W
05/26/2016                   BRAZOS             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SCANNER REPORTS TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT BRIARCREST NEAR
            LOWES.

1241 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRYAN                   30.67N  96.37W
05/26/2016                   BRAZOS             TX   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON UNIVERSITY DRIVE AND HIGHWAY 6.

1244 PM     TORNADO          BRYAN                   30.67N  96.37W
05/26/2016                   BRAZOS             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HIGHWAY 6 AT BRIARCREST BEING SHUT DOWN. POWER OUTAGES.

1245 PM     TORNADO          3 E BRYAN               30.68N  96.31W
05/26/2016                   BRAZOS             TX   PUBLIC

            ROOF TORN OFF OF HOME NEAR THE MIRAMONT COUNTRY CLUB
            TENNIS COURTS.

1258 PM     TORNADO          BRYAN                   30.67N  96.37W
05/26/2016                   BRAZOS             TX   PUBLIC

            TREES AND METAL CARPORT DOWN ON OAK HILL.

1258 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNE COLLEGE STATION   30.66N  96.29W
05/26/2016                   BRAZOS             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DAMAGE REPORTED ON SH 30 AND FM 60 UNIVERSITY DRIVE
            EAST ...AND ON FM 1179 BY SHERRIFFS OFFICE.

0115 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MADISONVILLE            30.95N  95.91W
05/26/2016                   MADISON            TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SH 21 FROM MADISONVILLE TO FM 2548 CLOSED.

0116 PM     TORNADO          BRYAN                   30.67N  96.37W
05/26/2016                   BRAZOS             TX   CITY OFFICIAL

            MULTIPLE HOMES DAMAGED IN THE WHEELER RIDGE
            SUBDIVISION.

0150 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 ENE WIXON VALLEY      30.79N  96.26W
05/26/2016                   BRAZOS             TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            US 190 THROUGH KURTEN HAS FLOODED SECTIONS.

0150 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MADISONVILLE            30.95N  95.91W
05/26/2016                   MADISON            TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SH 90 IS CLOSED BETWEEN MADISONVILLE AND BEDIAS.

0210 PM     FLASH FLOOD      13 WNW MADISONVILLE     31.03N  96.11W
05/26/2016                   MADISON            TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            OLD SPANISH ROAD TX-OSR IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING
            BETWEEN INTERSTATE 45 AND US 190.

0245 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E COLLEGE STATION     30.60N  96.29W
05/26/2016                   BRAZOS             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            STATE HIGHWAY 6 SOUTH BOUND AT FM 2818 IS CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING.

0250 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BRYAN                   30.67N  96.37W
05/26/2016                   BRAZOS             TX   PUBLIC

            TENNESEE ROAD IN NORTH BRYAN IS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BRYAN                   30.67N  96.37W
05/26/2016                   BRAZOS             TX   CITY OFFICIAL

            VILLA MARIA BETWEEN CAVITT AND TEXAS IS IMPASSABLE DUE
            TO FLOODING.

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LOVELADY                31.13N  95.45W
05/26/2016                   HOUSTON            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SH 19...FM1280...FM 358 ARE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW NAVASOTA          30.37N  96.14W
05/26/2016                   GRIMES             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN AT FM 105 OUT OF NAVASOTA BEFORE FIRST
            BRIDGE.

0330 PM     FLOOD            BRYAN                   30.67N  96.37W
05/26/2016                   BRAZOS             TX   CITY OFFICIAL

            MANY ROADS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE IN BRYAN AND COLLEGE
            STATION.

0350 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BRENHAM                 30.16N  96.40W
05/26/2016                   WASHINGTON         TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PORTIONS OF STATE HIGHWAY 36 ARE IMPASSABLE BETWEEN
            BRENHAM AND SOMERVILLE.

0430 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NAVASOTA                30.39N  96.09W
05/26/2016                   GRIMES             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WASHINGTON AVENUE AND FOSTER STREET IN NAVASOTA IS
            FLOODED WITH 2 FEET OF WATER.ABLE

0432 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NAVASOTA                30.39N  96.09W
05/26/2016                   GRIMES             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BUCKINGHAM LANE AND FM 379 FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.

0444 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N BRENHAM             30.23N  96.40W
05/26/2016                   WASHINGTON         TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FM 2935 AT NEW YEARS CREEK IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0445 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 W TODD MISSION        30.26N  95.93W
05/26/2016                   GRIMES             TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FM 362 AT BEASON CREEK CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRENHAM                 30.16N  96.40W
05/26/2016                   WASHINGTON         TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            CARS AND TRUCKS TRAVELING ON FM 50 BETWEEN BRENHAM AND
            INDEPENDENCE WERE HIT BY VERY STRONG WIND THAT TOPPLED
            TRAILERS BEHIND THE CARS. DESTROYED A ROOF ON A SHED
            NEAR THE ROAD.

0520 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MAGNOLIA                30.21N  95.75W
05/26/2016                   MONTGOMERY         TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROAD CLOSURE 1774 AND BUDDY RILEY

0548 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CONROE                  30.32N  95.47W
05/26/2016                   MONTGOMERY         TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TALL YARD TREE FELL AND SLICED THROUGH THE HOUSE
            NEXT TO IT.

0603 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE CONROE             30.29N  95.42W
05/26/2016                   MONTGOMERY         TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE LIMBS STRIPPED OFF TREES.

0607 PM     TSTM WND GST     CONROE                  30.32N  95.47W
05/26/2016  M66 MPH          MONTGOMERY         TX   ASOS

            57 KNOT GUST AT CONROE AIRPORT

0612 PM     HAIL             BRENHAM                 30.16N  96.40W
05/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

0712 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRENHAM                 30.16N  96.40W
05/26/2016                   WASHINGTON         TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGE THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1600165 HGX1600166 HGX1600167 HGX1600171 HGX1600168
HGX1600169 HGX1600189 HGX1600170 HGX1600182 HGX1600184 HGX1600183
HGX1600172 HGX1600173 HGX1600174 HGX1600188 HGX1600179 HGX1600175
HGX1600176 HGX1600177 HGX1600178 HGX1600180 HGX1600181 HGX1600186
HGX1600185 HGX1600192 HGX1600187 HGX1600191 HGX1600190 HGX1600193

DCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
727 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BRENHAM                 30.16N  96.40W
05/26/2016                   WASHINGTON         TX   PUBLIC

            SH 36 AND US 290 FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1600194

DCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
730 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ178-179-199-200-213-214-270115-
CHAMBERS TX-SAN JACINTO TX-POLK TX-LIBERTY TX-HARRIS TX-
MONTGOMERY TX-
730 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LIBERTY...SOUTHERN SAN JACINTO...
NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN POLK AND
NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

AT 730 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM LAKE LIVINGSTON STATE PARK TO NEAR VOTAW TO
HARDIN TO NEAR EAST LITTLE YORK / HOMESTEAD. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 25
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHEASTERN BAYTOWN...HUMBLE...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...LIVINGSTON...
BEACH CITY...BARRETT...KINGWOOD...HIGHLANDS...CROSBY...MONT BELVIEU...
SHEPHERD...SPLENDORA...PATTON VILLAGE...ROMAN FOREST...WOODBRANCH...OLD
RIVER-WINFREE...AMES AND DAISETTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

IF ON OR NEAR LAKE LIVINGSTON...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO
10 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER
NOW! DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 2976 9482 2988 9529 3027 9525 3041 9527
      3062 9524 3081 9489 3064 9457 3049 9454
      3049 9473 3011 9460 3011 9445 2999 9444
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 271DEG 23KT 3064 9503 3046 9471 3013 9473 2992
9524

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
731 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CONROE                  30.32N  95.47W
05/26/2016                   MONTGOMERY         TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            36 WATER RESCUES OCCURRING AROUND MONTGOMERY COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1600195

DCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
732 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CONROE                  30.32N  95.47W
05/26/2016                   MONTGOMERY         TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NUMEROUS WATER RESCUES OCCURRING AROUND MONTGOMERY
            COUNTY.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER HGX1600195

DCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
734 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BRENHAM                 30.16N  96.40W
05/26/2016                   WASHINGTON         TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            36 WATER RESCUES OCCURRING THROUGH COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1600196

DCH