Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1004 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Activity moving in from the SW starting to get its act together
this morning as we are beginning to see some lightning with the
storms. Current grids look good - with highest pops over north-
ern counties and slightly lower closer to the coast. PWs around
2" already over the region along with increasing instability to
help things unsettled over SE TX these next couple of days. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

Still looking for increasing rain chances across Southeast Texas
over the next two days as a series of disturbances move across the
state and help to ignite shower and thunderstorm development. Best
support/ lift/instability for possible strong/severe storms and
locally heavy rainfall still looks to be setting up across parts
of our western and northwestern counties. However, based on a
number of different scenarios being shown by the models, cannot
rule out some of this risk (especially the locally heavy rainfall)
spreading further to the east and south across the rest of our
area. The primary severe weather threats will be locally heavy
rainfall (and possible localized flooding) along with
strong/damaging winds, frequent lightning and large hail. Rainfall
totals for this Thursday-Friday event are expected to range from 1
to 2 inches in and around the coastal counties to 3 to 4 inches
across our northwestern and western counties. Locally higher
amounts will be possible area wide. Looks like less rain over the
Memorial holiday weekend with lower rain chances and warmer
temperatures. Look for mainly daytime 20% to 30% rain chances
during the first half of next week as weak upper level ridging
attempts to build into the state from the south. The next upper
level trough moving slowly eastward across the state during the
second half of the week has some potential to getting us back into
a wet pattern as we start the new month. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      82  73  82  71  88 /  70  50  70  50  40
Houston (IAH)              84  75  84  73  88 /  50  40  60  40  30
Galveston (GLS)            82  78  82  78  83 /  40  30  30  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
     Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 4 PM CDT this afternoon
     through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal
     waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20
     NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
     Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 7 PM CDT this evening
     through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal
     waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston
     Bay...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
448 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-271200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-
JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-
SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WHARTON-
448 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOOK FOR INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
STRONG WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1045 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ195>198-261630-
GRIMES TX-BURLESON TX-WASHINGTON TX-BRAZOS TX-
1045 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN BURLESON...NORTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON...SOUTHERN GRIMES AND SOUTHEASTERN BRAZOS COUNTIES THROUGH
1130 AM CDT...

AT 1044 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF WASHINGTON...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF BRENHAM...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE STORM WILL CONTAIN FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY PRODUCE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...EASTERN BRYAN...NAVASOTA...WASHINGTON...WIXON VALLEY...
MILLICAN...ANDERSON...WELLBORN...CARLOS...ROANS PRAIRIE AND INDEPENDENCE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3017 9622 3025 9640 3076 9631 3058 9584
TIME...MOT...LOC 1544Z 209DEG 35KT 3028 9627

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1136 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ195>198-261715-
GRIMES TX-BURLESON TX-WASHINGTON TX-BRAZOS TX-
1136 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN BURLESON...NORTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON...WEST CENTRAL GRIMES AND SOUTHEASTERN BRAZOS COUNTIES
THROUGH 1215 PM CDT...

AT 1135 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MILLICAN...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF NAVASOTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND FLOODING
OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN COLLEGE STATION...MILLICAN AND CARLOS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3037 9616 3042 9632 3065 9622 3055 9594
TIME...MOT...LOC 1635Z 218DEG 23KT 3049 9619

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1200 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ176-196-261745-
MADISON TX-BRAZOS TX-
1200 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN BRAZOS AND CENTRAL
MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 PM CDT...

AT 1200 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES NORTH OF KURTEN...OR 16 MILES WEST OF MADISONVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. IN
ADDITION WILL HAVE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MADISONVILLE...NORMANGEE AND NORTH ZULCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3101 9573 3084 9617 3095 9628 3098 9623
      3100 9617 3107 9605 3107 9601 3109 9598
      3109 9578
TIME...MOT...LOC 1700Z 226DEG 25KT 3097 9618