Tornado Warning 18, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
131 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.AVIATION...
a series of upper level disturbances are producing scattered to
numerous thunderstorms over western portions of the forecast
area this afternoon. The houston metro area is more likely to
experience scattered showers this afternoon as most of the
thunderstorm activity is focused further to the north and west of
the area.

This activity should gradually taper off this evening, however
activity resume again on Friday as additional disturbances move
across the area. The timing of convective onset is a little up in
the air because while the models are in agreement that it will
rain, they are all over the place in forecasting the timing.
Tomorrow's thunderstorm activity is more likely to affect the
Houston metro area.                        Keehn

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Activity moving in from the SW starting to get its act together
this morning as we are beginning to see some lightning with the
storms. Current grids look good - with highest pops over north-
ern counties and slightly lower closer to the coast. PWs around
2" already over the region along with increasing instability to
help things unsettled over SE TX these next couple of days. 41

PREV DISCUSSION...

Still looking for increasing rain chances across Southeast Texas
over the next two days as a series of disturbances move across the
state and help to ignite shower and thunderstorm development. Best
support/ lift/instability for possible strong/severe storms and
locally heavy rainfall still looks to be setting up across parts
of our western and northwestern counties. However, based on a
number of different scenarios being shown by the models, cannot
rule out some of this risk (especially the locally heavy rainfall)
spreading further to the east and south across the rest of our
area. The primary severe weather threats will be locally heavy
rainfall (and possible localized flooding) along with
strong/damaging winds, frequent lightning and large hail. Rainfall
totals for this Thursday-Friday event are expected to range from 1
to 2 inches in and around the coastal counties to 3 to 4 inches
across our northwestern and western counties. Locally higher
amounts will be possible area wide. Looks like less rain over the
Memorial holiday weekend with lower rain chances and warmer
temperatures. Look for mainly daytime 20% to 30% rain chances
during the first half of next week as weak upper level ridging
attempts to build into the state from the south. The next upper
level trough moving slowly eastward across the state during the
second half of the week has some potential to getting us back into
a wet pattern as we start the new month. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      73  82  71  88  71 /  50  70  50  40  10
Houston (IAH)              75  84  73  88  72 /  40  60  40  30  10
Galveston (GLS)            78  82  78  83  77 /  30  30  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Friday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
     Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 1 AM CDT Friday FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
     Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

Discussion...41
Aviation/Marine...44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
448 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-271200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-
JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-
SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WHARTON-
448 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LOOK FOR INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
STRONG WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
112 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 PM     TORNADO          BRYAN                   30.67N  96.37W
05/26/2016                   BRAZOS             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HIGHWAY 6 AT BRIARCREST BEING SHUT DOWN. POWER OUTAGES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1600167

DCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
115 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 PM     TORNADO          BRYAN                   30.67N  96.37W
05/26/2016                   BRAZOS             TX   PUBLIC

            TREES AND METAL CARPORT DOWN ON OAK HILL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1600168

DCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
120 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNE COLLEGE STATION   30.66N  96.29W
05/26/2016                   BRAZOS             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DAMAGE REPORTED BY SHERRIFFS OFFICE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1600169

DCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
125 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0116 PM     TORNADO          BRYAN                   30.67N  96.37W
05/26/2016                   BRAZOS             TX   CITY OFFICIAL

            MULTIPLE HOMES DAMAGED IN THE WHEELER RIDGE
            SUBDIVISION.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1600170

DCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
132 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNE COLLEGE STATION   30.66N  96.29W
05/26/2016                   BRAZOS             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DAMAGE REPORTED ON SH 30 AND FM 60 UNIVERSITY DRIVE
            EAST ...AND ON FM 1179 BY SHERRIFFS OFFICE.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER HGX1600169

DCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
143 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 PM     TORNADO          2 ESE BRYAN             30.66N  96.33W
05/26/2016                   BRAZOS             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SCANNER REPORTS TORNADO TOUCHDOWN AT BRIARCREST NEAR
            LOWES.

1241 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRYAN                   30.67N  96.37W
05/26/2016                   BRAZOS             TX   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON UNIVERSITY DRIVE AND HIGHWAY 6.

1244 PM     TORNADO          BRYAN                   30.67N  96.37W
05/26/2016                   BRAZOS             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HIGHWAY 6 AT BRIARCREST BEING SHUT DOWN. POWER OUTAGES.

1258 PM     TORNADO          BRYAN                   30.67N  96.37W
05/26/2016                   BRAZOS             TX   PUBLIC

            TREES AND METAL CARPORT DOWN ON OAK HILL.

1258 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNE COLLEGE STATION   30.66N  96.29W
05/26/2016                   BRAZOS             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DAMAGE REPORTED ON SH 30 AND FM 60 UNIVERSITY DRIVE
            EAST ...AND ON FM 1179 BY SHERRIFFS OFFICE.

0116 PM     TORNADO          BRYAN                   30.67N  96.37W
05/26/2016                   BRAZOS             TX   CITY OFFICIAL

            MULTIPLE HOMES DAMAGED IN THE WHEELER RIDGE
            SUBDIVISION.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1600165 HGX1600166 HGX1600167 HGX1600168 HGX1600169
HGX1600170

DCH