Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
144 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THIS EVENING WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS IT MOVES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUES TO APPROACH ME AND NH. SFC HEATING
OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH COUPLED WITH VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAS ALLOWED FOR WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. ONE OR TWO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT BEING PRETTY
SPARSE IN MOST PLACES. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW
SHOWERS MAY BE THE NORM OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOCALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD ALLOW ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO BE
WIDELY SCT AT BEST OUTSIDE OF THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...COLDER AND FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

...ALL EYES ON POTENTIAL STORM SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIXED
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY /PARTICULARLY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS/. DEVELOPING PATTERN SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

PATTERN SUMMARY:  A REVIEW OF EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS THE TRANSITION OF A STRONG PACIFIC JET INTO A MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE
BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.  THE DETAILS OF THIS
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WILL BE ALL IMPORTANT TO
WHAT HAPPENS DOWNSTREAM AS AT LEAST SOME ENERGY ACROSS ALASKA AND
THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WILL BE TAPPED AND DRAWN SOUTH INTO AN
AMPLIFYING EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGH...WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO
CAPTURE A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND PROMOTE INTENSE CYCLOGENEIS
ALONG THE EAST COAST.  BEYOND THIS...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA FLATTENS ONCE AGAIN FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING PACIFIC AIR TO FLOOD EAST...AND
BACK ACROSS THE CONUS. THE DIFFERENCE THIS TIME WILL BE
SUBSTANTIAL AVAILABLE COLD AIR JUST NORTH OF THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...WHICH...WHEN COMBINED WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES COULD SPELL AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...REACHING BEYOND THE END OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE DETAILS...

THE BIG STORY FOR SATURDAY WILL BE THE CHILL AS T8S FALL TO AROUND 2
SIGMA BELOW NORMAL /-12 TO -18C/.  THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE PLENTY OF
SUN WITH A DRY AIRMASS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.  EVEN
IF WE CAN FULLY MIX TO H8...THESE TEMPERATURES ALOFT ONLY SUPPORT
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS AMD WILL CONTINUE TO TRIM FORECAST
HIGHS BASED ON THESE EXPECTATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN PULLS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST.  TEMPS ALOFT WILL WARM A
GOOD DEAL FROM THE DAY PREVIOUS. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER /AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE TOWARDS EVENING/...T9S ARE ACTUALLY A BIT COOLER IN THE
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS THAN TO THE NORTH /MINUS SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGHOUT/. THIS SHOULD FAVOR HIGHS IN THE 30S PRETTY MUCH
EVERYWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: A LOOK AT THE ENVELOPE OF DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CERTAINLY PAINTS A WESTWARD JOG IN THE TRACK OF
LOW PRESSURE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE EC ENSEMBLE HAS AN IMPRESSIVELY
SMALL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS GIVEN HOW MUCH THE MEAN HAS SHIFTED IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS.  IT/S TRACK IS JUST INSIDE THE BENCHMARK WITH
NUMEROUS SOLUTIONS IN THE 980-990MB RANGE AS IT DOES SO....WITH
RECENT OPERATIONAL RUNS STRONGER AND TUCKED A LITTLE FURTHER WEST
THAN THIS.

NEW 12Z GFS FALLS MORE LINE WITH IT/S PREVIOUS 00Z ENSEMBLE
MEAN...WITH A GOOD JOG WEST FROM IT/S 06Z SOLUTION...NOW FEATURING A
TRACK PRETTY MUCH DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK.  HOWEVER...IN
COMPARISON TO THE ECWMF...THESE SOLUTIONS ARE A GOOD BIT WEAKER WITH
CAPTURED SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE NOT DEVELOPING A NEGATIVE TILT
UNTIL IT/S PRETTY MUCH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

12Z GGEM ALSO SHIFTS WEST WITH A MUCH DEEPER SOLUTION SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF.  IT/S RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR AND FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/S PACKAGE...WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO THE EC-ENS MEAN...WHICH
FOLLOWS CLOSE THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

SUNY STONYBROOK ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS PAINTS THE PRIMARY
FEATURE IMPACTING THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AS BEING THE
BUILDING WESTERN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE.  UNTIL WE SEE THE FULL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS RIDGE /LATE FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY/ EXPECT
CONTINUED CHANGES IN THE LOW TRACK...WITH PTYPE ISSUES CERTAINLY NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE COAST.  CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY GREAT
ENOUGH TO INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE LIKELIES OVER SOUTHERN ZONES FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AND WILL KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION MENTIONED AS
SNOW FOR THIS PACKAGE.  WIND COULD CERTAINLY BECOME AN ISSUE GIVEN
THE STRONGER SOLUTIONS...BUT GIVEN THE TIME RANGE...A CONSENSUS
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PATH TO TAKE.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:  COLD AIR BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL NOT
HANG AROUND FOR LONG AS THE UPSTREAM PATTERN FLATTENS RAPIDLY.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH T8S BELOW -
10C...WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS
UNDER RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND GREATLY
ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS REALIZED SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...WITH THE CURRENT
CONSENSUS OF UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 30S OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW HAMPSHIRE POTENTIALLY TOO WARM IF THERE IS SNOWPACK. A NARROW
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING
BEFORE STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS ALONG ADVANCING
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE SETUP...THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH
STRONG WARM ADVECTION FAVORING ALL RAIN BY AFTERNOON.  THIS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A BIG PRECIPITATION PRODUCER...BUT COULD SPELL SOME
TRAVEL IMPACTS IF THE TIMING IS RIGHT.  HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID
40S NORTH TO SOUTH LOOK GOOD AT THIS RANGE.

A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS TO TAKE UP SHOP FROM THE
SOTUHERN PLAINS...NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEAR
THE US/CANADIAN BORDER IN THE NORTHEAST.  THERE IS ACTUALLY QUITE
STRONG DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION IN THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.  AT THIS RANGE...THE CONSENSUS WOULD FAVOR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDAY TO RESIDE JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA...PROMISING ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD FALL TO BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE MILD...BUT WILL TEMPER EXPECTED HIGHS AT
THIS RANGE GIVEN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS WELL AS INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP.  WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS BOUNDARY AS WE MOVE BEYOND THE END OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT PORTENDS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL GIVEN AMPLE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A STRENGTHENING JET ALOFT NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z
AND 02Z. THESE COULD PRODUCE GUSTY SFC WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS - LOWER CONDITIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THERE.

LONG TERM...VFR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
OF A 18-24 HOUR PERIOD OF VLIFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY WITH HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL AS A STORM SYSTEM
PASSES OFFSHORE.  THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM TRACK THAT
COULD EITHER 1-CAUSE THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE OFFSHORE WITH LOWER
AVIATION IMPACTS OR 2-CAUSE A CHANGE TO RAIN FOR COASTAL SITES
IMPACTING VISIBILITY AND CIGS. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS BACKING
NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS
WELL. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY WITH SHSN
POTENTIAL LINGERING AT BML.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS FOR MARGINAL SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS THROUGH FRI MORNING.
AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FRI AFTERNOON...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP ON ALL WATERS FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM...QUIET SATURDAY-SUNDAY.  IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSE TO...OR PERHAPS INSIDE
THE BENCHMARK SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY WITH GALES A GOOD
POSSIBILITY...AND STORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GIVEN THE SHIFTING MODEL CONSENSUS TO A
STRONGER LOW NEARER THE COAST...HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON COASTAL
IMPACTS.  FORTUNATELY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE GENERALLY LOW /9.2
SUNDAY EVENING AND 9.7 MONDAY MORNING/...SO IMPACTS WOULD MORE
LIKELY BE OF THE SPLASH-OVER VARIETY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

EKSTER/ARNOTT

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