Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1040 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Western Atlantic will weaken and move
eastward allowing a weak frontal boundary to become stationary
across the region through the end of the work week. A stronger
cold front will move in from the northwest late Sunday bringing
cooler and drier air to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1030 PM, an area of convection, sustained by cell regeneration
along an outflow boundary, continues to move steadily east into the
heart of the Upstate late this evening. Pops have been increased to
likely in the Greenville/Spartanburg area for the next couple of
hours. However, this activity should find it increasingly difficult
to sustain itself as it moves into a more stable environment.
Meanwhile, an area of showers has developed across the NC Blue Ridge
north of I-40, presumable in association with a channeled vorticity
max across TN. Chance pops have therefore been extended into the
early morning hours in those areas. None of this convective activity
is expected to amount to a whole lot, as locally heavy rain and
occasional cloud to ground lightning are expected to be the primary
threats overnight. Min temps are expected to be above normal once
again. Expect quite a bit of lingering convective debris through the
night as well. This will keep the chance of fog low. Best chance
would be in the mountain valleys, but even there, it may be more low
stratus than fog. Lows will again be above normal.

Should be another good day for convection Friday as short waves move
over the area in the westerly flow, and a cold front drops toward
the area. Have capped PoP at good chance for now, but would not be
surprised if some areas are increased to likely on the overnight
package. Isolated severe downbursts are expected again with moderate
instability and high DCAPE values developing during the afternoon.
PW values also remain high keeping an isolated heavy rain or flood
threat in place. Highs will be near or slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday:  The short term fcst period kicks off on
Friday evening amidst quasizonal H5 flow aloft, while an old stalled
frontal boundary remains draped atop northeast GA and the western
Carolinas.  Meanwhile, an H5 trof will dig atop the northern plains
while a region of low pressure deepens beneath said trof across the
mid/upper MS valley.  Pattern evolution through the period will
feature a gradual northward lift of the nearly stationary frontal
axis Saturday into Sunday as the central CONUS trof progresses
eastward.  As such, llv flow atop the southeast states will prevail
out of the south/southwest, which combined with ample residual
moisture in the region, will support convection Saturday afternoon
using the boundary as a focusing mechanism. At this point model
thermal profiles along with progged shear levels favor only general
tsra with a few strong/severe possibly on Saturday.

The most active day of the period continues to favor Sunday as the
deepened H5 trof pushes east while the associated surface front
approaches the western NC high terrain by early/mid afternoon.
Modest warming will lead to abundant destabilization ahead of the
front across northeast GA and the western Carolinas through the
remainder of the day/evening Sunday.  Guidance favors better
shearing to the north atop the OH valley, however 20-30kts
0-6km bulk shear cannot be ruled out at this point, especially
across western NC.  Thus although not astronomical, confidence
in coverage is higher as well as the potential for strong/severe
convection.  Said coverage will diminish into the overnight hours
as heating/instability wains, however a few shra/tsra will remain
a possibility through daybreak Monday along the front.

The fcst itself will feature likely level pops across the SW
Mtns on Saturday where southerly/southwesterly upsloping will
be maximized, while only mid/high chance pops prevail across
low terrain.  As stated, Sunday's pops will be a bit higher,
generally likely levels atop much of the western NC high terrain
eastward along the I40 corridor, with mid/high chances once again
over the low terrain.  Temperatures on Saturday are progged to be
just below normal, warming a bit to near/above normal on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 2 PM EDT Thursday: the medium range fcst picks up at 12Z on
Monday with a fairly broad upper trof lifting NE of the region and
upper ridging spreading eastward across the central CONUS in its
wake. The ridge axis is expected to be roughly over the fcst area
by mid week with some degree of flattening for the remainder of
the period. At the sfc, a fairly strong late summer cold front is
expected to be just SE of the CWFA by the start of the medium range.
In the front's wake, a well defined high will overspread the area bringing
cooler temps and drier air to the Carolinas. As we move into midweek,
the high will slide eastward towards the coast and eventually move
offshore later in the week. The sensible fcst is straightforward with
temps dropping below normal values for the first time in a while. The
latest guidance has temps trending a bit cooler, so I lowered values
to reflect this. The period should be mostly dry with chances for some
lingering convection early Monday as the front moves south of the CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT: Convection continues to push way from the terminal this
evening, and should stay away until Friday afternoon. Winds have
turned S in response to outflow from a dissipating shower just south
of the terminal, but are expected to return to light N by around
02Z, where they will stay through the morning before becoming SW
again Fri afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions should persist
through the period.

Elsewhere: The most immediate concern will be the potential for
convection at KAND over the next couple of hours, esp as outflow
from northeast GA convection continues to push east. Started out
with a VCTS, with tempo for SHRA through 02Z. Meanwhile, convection
is not expected at the other terminals until Fri afternoon. As
usual, fog/low stratus will be possible, but far from a certainty at
KAVL. High clouds and light up-valley winds have prevented any
restrictions the past couple of nights, and this could well be the
case again. Opted to advertise categorical MVFR fog by around 08Z,
with tempos for LIFR conditions by daybreak. Otherwise, convection
will develop again Fri afternoon, with PROB30s warranted at all
terminals.

Outlook: Thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage Friday
afternoon and into the weekend as another cold front approaches from
the northwest. The front should arrive early next week to continue
the thunderstorm activity through Monday. Morning fog/stratus will
be possible each day in the NC mountain valleys, and possibly in
locations that receive soaking rains the previous aftn/evening.

Confidence Table...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  97%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High  95%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  95%     High  95%     High  95%     High 100%
KHKY       High  95%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High  98%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/RWH
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-200245-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1044 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FROM OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
848 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ001-004-010-011-190130-
FRANKLIN GA-HART GA-STEPHENS GA-ELBERT GA-GREATER OCONEE SC-
ABBEVILLE SC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-ANDERSON SC-
848 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT HART...
ELBERT...STEPHENS...FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN OCONEE...SOUTHWESTERN
ABBEVILLE AND SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 847 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTH OF TOCCOA
TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF ELBERTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TOCCOA...ELBERTON...HARTWELL...CARNESVILLE...SENECA...ROYSTON...
WESTMINSTER...CALHOUN FALLS...REED CREEK AND LAVONIA.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...TRY
TO GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY
FROM OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN
INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED
ELECTRONIC DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG
UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORMS APPROACH.

&&

LAT...LON 3399 8283 3398 8286 3401 8291 3401 8294
      3403 8294 3405 8299 3410 8304 3411 8303
      3415 8306 3417 8310 3423 8308 3427 8311
      3424 8317 3425 8320 3454 8343 3458 8341
      3471 8302 3408 8252 3397 8275 3397 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 261DEG 15KT 3452 8334 3397 8291

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
940 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

SCZ006-010-190215-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-ANDERSON SC-
940 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT SOUTH
CENTRAL GREENVILLE AND CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

AT 940 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF ANDERSON...OR NEAR
NORTHLAKE... MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... ANDERSON...HOMELAND
PARK...BELTON...WILLIAMSTON...NORTHLAKE...WEST PELZER... ANDERSON
AIRPORT...LAKE HARTWELL...PIEDMONT AND HONEA PATH.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3444 8281 3462 8284 3472 8241 3446 8236
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 260DEG 23KT 3455 8273

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1059 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E HICKORY TAVERN      34.52N 82.13W
08/18/2016                   LAURENS            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SCHP REPORTED A TREE DOWN NEAR HICKORY TAVERN

&&

LEV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
121 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

NCZ035-036-056-502-504-190630-
GREATER CALDWELL NC-GREATER BURKE NC-IREDELL NC-CATAWBA NC-
ALEXANDER NC-
121 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN CALDWELL...
CENTRAL BURKE...NORTHWESTERN CATAWBA...NORTHWESTERN IREDELL AND
ALEXANDER COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM EDT...

AT 113 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS
4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGANTON...OR NEAR DREXEL...TO BETWEEN
TAYLORSVILLE AND HICKORY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HICKORY...LENOIR...MORGANTON...TAYLORSVILLE...STATESVILLE...ST.
STEPHENS... CONOVER...LONGVIEW...SAWMILLS AND GRANITE FALLS.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3602 8099 3580 8086 3558 8168 3581 8187
      3585 8181
TIME...MOT...LOC 0513Z 249DEG 20KT 3571 8162

STUREY