Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
137 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect a weak cold front to enter the region from the northwest
over the weekend then become nearly stationary somewhere over the
southeast through much of next week. Abundant moisture along with
the stalled out front will keep higher than normal rain chances for
much of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM EDT Saturday: Starting to see some showers pop up on
the upwind side of the mountains, and have adjusted pop trends to
lower initially but then trending into going pops this afternoon.
Seeing full sun out there now with the minor exceptions of a little
bit of lingering valley fog, but otherwise today is the sunniest
we'll see through the period. sbCAPE values are already >1500 J/kg
across the Piedmont and rising but mid-level lapse rates are not
supportive of severe convection, so any strong/severe storms this
afternoon will be very isolated. Heavy rain remains the primary
threat and mainly across the mountains, but otherwise just garden-
variety thunderstorms for the most part. Will continue to reevaluate
convective parameters through the day.

Otherwise, 500 mb heights indicate a shortwave departing to the east
while ridging develops from the west. Good insolation will permit
convective triggering to happen first over the higher terrain early
this afternoon, with activity pushing east across the piedmont in
WNW steering flow through late day. 70s dewpoints will contribute to
strong tstms with the possibility of a few severe, and training of
any cells may lead to localized heavy rain issues. Max temps should
run at least a category above climo.

A surface boundary will settle southward toward the northern tier of
the forecast area tonight. Overnight showers be isolated at best
given the relative lull in the forcing. Mild mins will remain 5 to 9
degrees above climo values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
At 200 AM Saturday: On Sunday morning an upper ridge will be over
the plains, an upper trough will be along the east coast and the
models depict a weak upper low over N FL. The pattern progresses
such that by Tuesday morning the upper ridge expands to eastward and
links up with a ridge east of the Bahamas, while the weak upper low
meanders about near the border of FL and GA.

At the surface, a stalled front will be over the Carolinas and GA on
Sunday morning, with abundant moisture along its length. Although
the boundary weakens on Monday, the associated moisture persists
while surface ridging extends southwest along the eastern seaboard.
On Monday and Monday night, increasing isentropic upglide, and
upslope flow into the Blue Ridge, should support increasing
precipitation, providing that activity related to the southeastern
surface low does not limit moisture from reaching our area.
Temperatures will exhibit a reduced diurnal range due to moisture and
cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At 200 AM Saturday: On Tuesday morning an upper ridge will extend
from the plains to the east coast, while an upper low will be over
the northeast Gulf Coast. The upper pattern deamplifies toward the
end of the week, leading to nearly zonal upper flow over the
northern tier of states, while the southeastern upper low drifts
slowly inland over AL.

At the surface, a surface ridge will remain in place along the
eastern seaboard on Tuesday, while a surface low will be along the
northeast Gulf Coast. The models show copious atlantic moisture
streaming toward the southern Blue Ridge, which would support robust
precipitation production, but some uncertainty remains on what
affect convection associated with Gulf low might have in limiting
moist inflow. This pattern remains largely the same through Friday.
A reduced diurnal temperature range will persist due to clouds and
moisture. Temperatures will continue to exhibit a reduced diurnal
range due to moisture and cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT: Winds are hovering right at W this afternoon and so have
started the TAF just on the N side. Winds will be LGT/VRB overnight
but by Sunday AM should swing around to the SE, remaining generally
SE for several days. Kept TEMPO TSRA for this evening with VCSH and
will monitor convective development. Cannot rule out fog/low stratus
Sunday morning and kept MVFR fog with hint of SCT stratus. As the
front slides into the area, precipitation chances pick up during the
day on Sunday and introduced PROB30 TSRA starting 13z, but this
timing will have to be refined in subsequent issuances.

Elsewhere: Overall similar trend to KCLT, but with higher TSRA
chances for this afternoon especially KAVL. Expect mountain valley
fog/low stratus Sunday morning and included another round of LIFR
conditions at KAVL with IFR at KHKY, but could easily be lower
especially with the LGT/VRB winds expected overnight. PROB30 TSRA
everywhere starting Sunday AM.

Outlook: A frontal boundary will drop into the area on Sunday and
linger into Monday - with a wet pattern returning through the
upcoming week. The associated restrictions could be widespread at
times.

Confidence Table...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     Low   59%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  83%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     Low   59%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     Med   66%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     Med   66%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...HG/TDP
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...TDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
351 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ001>003-072000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
351 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. MOISTURE ALONG A STALLED FRONT
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
..MONDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
..TUESDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
..WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
..THURSDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
..FRIDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ018-026-028-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-502-504-506-508-510-
SCZ004>010-072000-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-GREATER CALDWELL-
GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-
351 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. MOISTURE ALONG A STALLED FRONT
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
..MONDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ029-NCZ082-SCZ011>014-019-072000-
ELBERT-UNION-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
351 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. MOISTURE ALONG A STALLED FRONT
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY.
..MONDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

GAZ018-062030-
STEPHENS GA-
354 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT STEPHENS COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM
EDT...

AT 354 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
TOCCOA...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TOCCOA...MARTIN...AVALON...EASTANOLEE AND BOYDVILLE.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 8336 3469 8334 3468 8334 3468 8332
      3467 8332 3467 8331 3464 8327 3448 8318
      3447 8338 3446 8340 3447 8342 3448 8346
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 353DEG 9KT 3461 8336

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

GAZ017-018-062030-
STEPHENS GA-HABERSHAM GA-
401 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN STEPHENS AND
CENTRAL HABERSHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 400 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES EAST OF CLARKESVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... CLARKESVILLE...MOUNT
AIRY...CORNELIA...DEMOREST...BOYDVILLE...TURNERVILLE AND HOLLYWOOD.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3469 8352 3469 8337 3452 8336 3452 8354
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 001DEG 10KT 3462 8345

08