Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Franklin County, GA, Habersham County, GA, Hart County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Stephens County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Union County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Anderson County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, York County, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
137 PM EDT SAT AUG 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect a weak cold front to enter the region from the northwest
over the weekend then become nearly stationary somewhere over the
southeast through much of next week. Abundant moisture along with
the stalled out front will keep higher than normal rain chances for
much of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM EDT Saturday: Starting to see some showers pop up on
the upwind side of the mountains, and have adjusted pop trends to
lower initially but then trending into going pops this afternoon.
Seeing full sun out there now with the minor exceptions of a little
bit of lingering valley fog, but otherwise today is the sunniest
we'll see through the period. sbCAPE values are already >1500 J/kg
across the Piedmont and rising but mid-level lapse rates are not
supportive of severe convection, so any strong/severe storms this
afternoon will be very isolated. Heavy rain remains the primary
threat and mainly across the mountains, but otherwise just garden-
variety thunderstorms for the most part. Will continue to reevaluate
convective parameters through the day.

Otherwise, 500 mb heights indicate a shortwave departing to the east
while ridging develops from the west. Good insolation will permit
convective triggering to happen first over the higher terrain early
this afternoon, with activity pushing east across the piedmont in
WNW steering flow through late day. 70s dewpoints will contribute to
strong tstms with the possibility of a few severe, and training of
any cells may lead to localized heavy rain issues. Max temps should
run at least a category above climo.

A surface boundary will settle southward toward the northern tier of
the forecast area tonight. Overnight showers be isolated at best
given the relative lull in the forcing. Mild mins will remain 5 to 9
degrees above climo values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
At 200 AM Saturday: On Sunday morning an upper ridge will be over
the plains, an upper trough will be along the east coast and the
models depict a weak upper low over N FL. The pattern progresses
such that by Tuesday morning the upper ridge expands to eastward and
links up with a ridge east of the Bahamas, while the weak upper low
meanders about near the border of FL and GA.

At the surface, a stalled front will be over the Carolinas and GA on
Sunday morning, with abundant moisture along its length. Although
the boundary weakens on Monday, the associated moisture persists
while surface ridging extends southwest along the eastern seaboard.
On Monday and Monday night, increasing isentropic upglide, and
upslope flow into the Blue Ridge, should support increasing
precipitation, providing that activity related to the southeastern
surface low does not limit moisture from reaching our area.
Temperatures will exhibit a reduced diurnal range due to moisture and
cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At 200 AM Saturday: On Tuesday morning an upper ridge will extend
from the plains to the east coast, while an upper low will be over
the northeast Gulf Coast. The upper pattern deamplifies toward the
end of the week, leading to nearly zonal upper flow over the
northern tier of states, while the southeastern upper low drifts
slowly inland over AL.

At the surface, a surface ridge will remain in place along the
eastern seaboard on Tuesday, while a surface low will be along the
northeast Gulf Coast. The models show copious atlantic moisture
streaming toward the southern Blue Ridge, which would support robust
precipitation production, but some uncertainty remains on what
affect convection associated with Gulf low might have in limiting
moist inflow. This pattern remains largely the same through Friday.
A reduced diurnal temperature range will persist due to clouds and
moisture. Temperatures will continue to exhibit a reduced diurnal
range due to moisture and cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT: Winds are hovering right at W this afternoon and so have
started the TAF just on the N side. Winds will be LGT/VRB overnight
but by Sunday AM should swing around to the SE, remaining generally
SE for several days. Kept TEMPO TSRA for this evening with VCSH and
will monitor convective development. Cannot rule out fog/low stratus
Sunday morning and kept MVFR fog with hint of SCT stratus. As the
front slides into the area, precipitation chances pick up during the
day on Sunday and introduced PROB30 TSRA starting 13z, but this
timing will have to be refined in subsequent issuances.

Elsewhere: Overall similar trend to KCLT, but with higher TSRA
chances for this afternoon especially KAVL. Expect mountain valley
fog/low stratus Sunday morning and included another round of LIFR
conditions at KAVL with IFR at KHKY, but could easily be lower
especially with the LGT/VRB winds expected overnight. PROB30 TSRA
everywhere starting Sunday AM.

Outlook: A frontal boundary will drop into the area on Sunday and
linger into Monday - with a wet pattern returning through the
upcoming week. The associated restrictions could be widespread at
times.

Confidence Table...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     Low   59%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  83%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     Low   59%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     Med   66%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     Med   66%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...HG/TDP
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...TDP

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