Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
805 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Subtropical upper ridging will give way to a weak frontal passage by
midweek with chances for showers and thunderstorms remaining
elevated.  A wedge of high pressure will extend into the region
through late week from the northeast yielding slightly lower
temperatures and lower precipitation chances outside of the
mountains. Another and perhaps more established cold front will push
into the region next weekend allowing for increased precipitation
chances regionwide.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT, thunderstorm coverage has been in a lull early
this evening as the convection that developed on earlier outflows
has weakened. Additional convection is forming upstream over eastern
KY and the western Virginias and the steering flow should permit
this to approach the NW NC piedmont through late evening. Will keep
fairly solid chances going for most areas through 06z given the
ongoing scattered development over the high terrain/northern
foothills and the expected arrival of the weakening upstream
activity. Min temps appear on track with mild lows expected
overnight along with mountain river valley fog and low stratus.

Otherwise, a weak upper trough along the eastern seaboard will
slowly push east tonight through tomorrow. A lee trough/weak
surface front will remain in place across the area, and this will
combine with the continued high levels of moisture to produce decent
diurnal coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the period.
Given the moisture, we should see very little change to lows tonight
and highs tomorrow, maybe a degree cooler for highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Monday: On Wednesday, the CWA will remain under a
weakness between a H5 ridge centered over TX and a weaker ridge over
the Carribean. The GFS indicates that low pressure will develop
across the central and western Carolinas. The ECMWF indicates that a
sfc low will exists close to the mouth of the Savannah River, with
sfc ridging across the western Carolinas. The forecast environment
should feature plenty of llvl moisture and marginal instability.
PoPs will increase through the afternoon, peaking at a chc east in
high chc over the ridges. High temperatures are forecast to range
from the mid 80s within the mtn valleys to low 90s across the upper
Savannah River valley.

On Thursday, weak sfc ridging will continue across the CWA as low
pressure spreads from the deep south NE across the coastal plain.
Cloud cover and early trigger of SHRA/TSRA will limit high
temperatures in the low 80s across the mtns to upper 80s east of the
mtns. Convection should likely linger well into the evening, fading
to schc during the late Thursday night to early Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM Monday...the medium range begins Friday morning with an
upper ridge sliding off the East Coast and a broad upper trough
progressing toward the eastern third of the CONUS. Friday will mark
a  transition period at the surface as well...as an upslope flow
regime  breaks down and a frontal boundary is pushed toward the
southern Appalachians. Some weak leftover upsloping and the presence
of an old boundary/decent moisture profile will keep pops Friday
afternoon above climo. Saturday will be relatively dry with near-
climo pops...before the front is finally shoved in earnest toward
the forecast area on Sunday. No major model shows a clean frontal
passage, so PWATs will remain elevated and diurnal thunderstorm
chances will remain above average through early next week. Max and
min temps will start near climo on Friday before increasing to a
category above climo over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT: Coverage has waned in the vicinity of KCLT and the upstream
convection has too far to go in diminishing SBCAPE air to permit a
strong thunder chance at the airfield the rest of the night. Will
thus mention only VCSH this evening before dropping precipitation
overnight. VFR conditions will continue with light SW flow and
PROB30 TSRA appears in order again for tomorrow afternoon - perhaps
migrating to a TEMPO as the timing comes more in focus given the
high moisture levels.

Elsewhere: Scattered convection should generally miss the mountain
and foothill TAF sites the rest of the evening. Will ride on VCSH
and then dry conditions overnight. Mountain valley fog and low
stratus are likely once again given the moist profiles and
restrictions will be possible again at KHKY around daybreak as well.
Expect VFR conditions otherwise but with another round of scattered,
or better, thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Winds will remain SW
except more NW at KAVL.

Outlook: Moisture will increase on easterly flow from mid to late
week with associated showers and thunderstorms developing -
especially in the afternoon and evening. Restrictions will be
possible with any afternoon/evening convection as well as each
morning in the mountain valleys where fog and low stratus are likely.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High  97%     High  97%     High 100%
KAVL       High  97%     Low   57%     Med   73%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High  97%     High  97%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High  97%     High  80%     High  91%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...HG/TDP
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...HG/TDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
341 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-021945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
341 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONE OR TWO OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF DAMAGING
WINDS OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
543 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

NCZ082-012215-
UNION NC-
543 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 542 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 7 MILES NORTH OF MONROE...OR OVER UNIONVILLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... MONROE...UNIONVILLE...HEMBY
BRIDGE...FAIRVIEW IN UNION COUNTY...WINGATE... INDIAN TRAIL AND NEW
SALEM.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 8029 3497 8050 3510 8064 3520 8054
      3518 8049 3518 8048 3517 8047 3516 8044
      3517 8042 3516 8041 3518 8037 3517 8036
      3517 8034 3512 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 229DEG 7KT 3509 8051

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
545 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

NCZ068-508-SCZ008-012215-
CLEVELAND NC-GREATER RUTHERFORD NC-CHEROKEE SC-
545 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...SOUTHERN CLEVELAND AND NORTHERN CHEROKEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 544 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FOREST CITY...OR 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MOORESBORO...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... SHELBY...BOILING SPRINGS
NC...BLACKSBURG...GROVER...PATTERSON SPRINGS...
ELLENBORO...LATTIMORE...MOORESBORO...EARL AND HENRIETTA.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3531 8139 3505 8147 3518 8187 3518 8188
      3535 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 284DEG 15KT 3525 8177

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
614 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

NCZ068-012245-
CLEVELAND NC-
614 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
CLEVELAND COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 613 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 9 MILES NORTH OF SHELBY...OR OVER LAWNDALE...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHELBY...BELWOOD...LAWNDALE...FALLSTON...POLKVILLE...WACO...KINGSTOWN
AND CASAR.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3547 8148 3542 8146 3536 8141 3535 8138
      3524 8141 3534 8168 3551 8164 3551 8151
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 282DEG 8KT 3542 8158

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
624 PM EDT MON AUG 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW CLIFFSIDE          35.26N 81.81W
08/01/2016                   RUTHERFORD         NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ONE TREE PARTIALLY BLOCKING THE ROAD AT INTERSECTION OF
            OLD HENRIETTA ROAD AND BYERS ROAD.

&&

OUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
917 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

GAZ017-020145-
HABERSHAM GA-
917 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT WESTERN
HABERSHAM COUNTY UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

AT 916 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF CLARKESVILLE...OR 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HELEN...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLARKESVILLE...CORNELIA...DEMOREST...MOUNT AIRY AND BATESVILLE.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 8364 3471 8364 3473 8362 3475 8363
      3476 8355 3474 8353 3473 8349 3474 8345
      3449 8350 3453 8363 3454 8362 3455 8362
      3458 8364 3461 8365 3462 8364 3466 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 280DEG 5KT 3465 8364

07