Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

297 
WWUS52 KGSP 021919
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

NCC023-035-045-109-021945-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0199.000000T0000Z-160802T1945Z/
BURKE NC-CATAWBA NC-CLEVELAND NC-LINCOLN NC-
319 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN BURKE...SOUTHWESTERN CATAWBA...NORTH CENTRAL
CLEVELAND AND WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES...

AT 318 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF HICKORY...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF ICARD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELWOOD...SOUTH MOUNTAINS STATE PARK...PROPST...VALE...
PLEASANT GROVE AND COOKSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN IN THE WARNED
AREA. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT AND INTENSE LIGHTNING. TURN OFF
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. DO NOT USE CORDED TELEPHONES. DO NOT TAKE A
BATH OR SHOWER.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL
FREE...1...800... 2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK
PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3561 8122 3542 8139 3542 8145 3560 8171
      3573 8158
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 304DEG 14KT 3562 8151 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

07

123 
WWUS52 KGSP 021939
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
339 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

NCC023-035-045-109-021949-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0199.000000T0000Z-160802T1945Z/
BURKE NC-CATAWBA NC-CLEVELAND NC-LINCOLN NC-
339 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BURKE...
SOUTHWESTERN CATAWBA...NORTH CENTRAL CLEVELAND AND WESTERN LINCOLN
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 345 PM EDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3561 8122 3542 8139 3542 8145 3560 8171
      3573 8158
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 304DEG 14KT 3562 8151 

$$

07

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
247 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will keep rain and thunderstorm chances elevated
through the middle of the week, with a cool, moist wedge of high
pressure expected to arrive in the latter half the work week.
Another, stronger frontal boundary will enter the region over the
weekend, keeping higher than normal rainfall chances in the forecast
through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 PM: Latest visible satellite indicated very little CU in
the wake of dissipated morning Piedmont stratus. Upstream, mtns and
foothills are covered with widespread CU congestus and CBs.
Latest sfc analysis indicated that most of the foothills and
Piedmont remained under 2500-3000 J/kg of CAPE, with no analyzed
CIN. I will expect showers and thunderstorms to slide off the high
terrain, with the initial line pushing east by 22z. SCT to NUM cells
may develop within the wake of the line of TSRA across the western
Carolinas and NE GA. The second round of convection will likely
develop ahead of disturbance, currently seen as a circulation in the
visible satellite over the KY/WV line. 12z GFS indicates that the
mid level disturbance will slide east of the southern Appalachians
late this evening. The passage of the feature should allow deep
convection to largely dissipate one to two hours after sunset.
However, isolated convection may linger across many areas overnight
as a weak front slides south over the region.

Tonight, the weak front is expected to become stationary near the
NC/SC line during the late night hours. Calm to light winds and
dissipating debris clouds south of the front will favor the
development of mtn valley fog late tonight. Sfc condensation
pressure deficits fall to 1 to 2 mbs across the mtns, especially
near the TN line. A few pockets of patchy fog is possible east of
the mtns, generally over areas of wet ground. Low temperatures are
forecast to range from the upper 60s within the mtn valleys to low
to mid 70s east.

Wednesday, the stalled front should begin to slide south during the
daylight hours, giving way to ridging high pressure sourced from the
NE. Llvl weak upslope flow should support SHRA/TSRA along the east
facing slopes by mid day Wed. Convection will develop across the
Piedmont from mid day through the afternoon. The combination of
increasing cloud cover and light ENE winds should limit high
temperatures to the low 80s across the I-40 corridor, to the upper
80s across the upstate, areas within the upper Savannah River Valley
will range around 90 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday...The short term forecast will continue to
feature a little more unsettled pattern for the forecast area. The
upper level pattern will change little, with high pressure along the
southern tier of the CONUS, and weak westerly flow across the middle
(including our area). At the surface, a weak wave will linger along
the Carolina coasts, while an area of high pressure around 1021 mb
will set up along the Northeast coast. This will keep a low-level
easterly fetch and upslope flow, and looks to be an in-situ wedge
across the Carolinas. Models have come in cooler for Thursday and
Friday, with solid chance to likely PoPs both days. The increased
cloud cover should limit instability, and shear will remain weak. So
severe threat should remain low. The bigger threat will be locally
heavy rain and isolated flooding, but even that should be limited
due to lack of forcing or flow. I blended in the consensus grids for
temps, resulting in highs in the mid to upper 80s on Thursday and
upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday east of the mountains. Lows will be
generally 3-4 degrees above normal each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...the medium range picks up Saturday morning
with an upper trough situated to the north of the forecast area. At
the surface, an unusual summertime wedge will have have recently
broken down with another surface front on approach from the Ohio
River Valley. Forecast soundings are indicating that some drying
will occur on Saturday, and global models key in on a small slot of
slightly drier air that will pass through the forecast area
Saturday. Convection Saturday will therefore have a predominately
diurnal character and limited coverage outside of the higher
terrain. Saturday will likely be the driest day of the entire
forecast period with pops staying near to just below climo.

Profiles again moisten considerably Sunday as the upper trough digs
farther into the East Coast and a surface frontal boundary pushes
into the area. Models then diverge with the behavior of this front,
as the GFS is considerably faster and more progressive with the
front than the ECMWF. The GFS features a clean frontal passage and
dries the area faster the the ECMWF, which has the front stalling
out over our region. The wetter ECMWF was weighted more heavily due
to better run-to-run consistency over the past few days, so
diurnally-favored pops were kept above climo through the first half
of next week, especially as the influence of a surface Bermuda-type
high becomes established again on Monday. Maximum and minimum
temperatures will be well above climo over the weekend, and will
fall back to slightly above climo early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Latest visible satellite indicated very
little CU in the wake of dissipated morning Piedmont stratus.
Upstream, mtns are covered with widespread developed CU congestus
and CBs. Latest sfc analysis indicated that most of the foothills
and Piedmont remained under 2500-3000 J/kg of CAPE, with no analyzed
CIN. I will expect showers and thunderstorms to slide off the high
terrain, with the initial line pushing east by 22z. SCT to NUM cells
may develop within the wake of the line of TSRA, dissipate one to
two hours after sunset. The calm winds and dissipating debris clouds
will favor the development of mtn valley fog late tonight. Llvl weak
upslope flow should support SHRA/TSRA along the east facing slopes
by mid day Wed.

I will indicate a TEMPO for most sites to indicate TSRA between 20z
to 24z. KAVL should see IFR to VLIFR ceilings and vis, high lighted
with a FM group at 10z and a TEMPO from 10z to 13z.

Outlook: Moisture will increase on easterly flow from mid to late
week with associated showers and thunderstorms developing -
especially in the afternoon and evening. Restrictions will be
possible with any afternoon/evening convection as well as each
morning in the mountain valleys where fog and low stratus are likely.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High  93%     High 100%     High  82%     High  94%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  91%     High  94%
KAVL       High  92%     High  83%     Med   67%     Med   79%
KHKY       High 100%     High  97%     Med   64%     Med   77%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  80%     High  94%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
454 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-030900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
454 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...ELEVATED MOISTURE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRESENT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AMONGST
ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
THIS THREAT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION...HOWEVER THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESIDE ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE WHERE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

CDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1254 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

NCZ033-501-021745-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS NC-AVERY NC-
1254 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN
CALDWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

AT 1253 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A THUNDERSTORM WITH
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEWLAND...OR 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF B.R. PARKWAY-LINVILLE FALLS TO GRANDFATHER. THIS STORM
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN...GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...B.R.
PARKWAY-LINVILLE FALLS TO GRANDFATHER...UPTON...EDGEMONT...GLOBE AND
COLLETTSVILLE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3611 8181 3612 8175 3608 8156 3593 8166
      3589 8173 3593 8175 3593 8178 3595 8178
      3595 8180 3597 8182 3598 8187 3600 8189
TIME...MOT...LOC 1653Z 297DEG 3KT 3602 8178

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

NCZ505>508-021900-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS NC-GREATER RUTHERFORD NC-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS NC-
EASTERN MCDOWELL NC-
233 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
RUTHERFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 233 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARION...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF OLD FORT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... FOREST
CITY...RUTHERFORDTON...MARION...SPINDALE...BOSTIC...SUNSHINE...FERO..
.
SUGAR HILL...THERMAL CITY AND SHINGLE HOLLOW.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3551 8169 3547 8170 3528 8187 3556 8221
      3570 8208
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 308DEG 26KT 3559 8208

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
241 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

NCZ056-504-021915-
GREATER BURKE NC-CATAWBA NC-
241 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN BURKE AND SOUTHWESTERN CATAWBA COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
EDT...

AT 240 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF MORGANTON...OR NEAR DREXEL...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HICKORY...MORGANTON...NEWTON...LONGVIEW...VALDESE...ICARD...DREXEL...
HILDEBRAN...CONNELLY SPRINGS AND RUTHERFORD COLLEGE.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3578 8155 3579 8145 3577 8144 3576 8140
      3576 8138 3577 8136 3569 8123 3556 8138
      3557 8152 3575 8170 3582 8162 3582 8160
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 313DEG 18KT 3581 8162

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

SCZ005-006-010-021930-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-ANDERSON SC-
255 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT EAST
CENTRAL PICKENS...SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE AND NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 255 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING NEAR EASLEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EASLEY...GREENVILLE DOWNTOWN...WELCOME...POWDERSVILLE...PIEDMONT...
WILLIAMSTON...WEST PELZER...DONALDSON CENTER...WEST GREENVILLE AND
MAULDIN.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3474 8270 3489 8258 3476 8226 3454 8245
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 304DEG 14KT 3477 8257

07