Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
240 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will stall out over the area tonight, bringing increased
chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms. The front dissipates
over the region tomorrow with subtropical high pressure building back in
for the rest of the week and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 PM EDT Tuesday...deep convection has developed near the
higher terrain of the central and southern mountains of NC, and to
the east of a lee trof over the Midlands of SC. Convection should
grow in coverage from there. The convective environment is a bit
more favorable over a larger area than the last few days, with the
SPC mesoanalysis showing sbCAPE greater than 2000 J/kg and dCAPE
greater than 800 J/kg across the entire area. Thus...a few storms
are expected to become severe with wet microbursts producing
damaging wind gusts. Most of the activity will diminish toward
sunset. Some of the models suggest a second round late this evening
coming down from the N, but this does not seem as likely.

The upper pattern will gradually amplify thru tonight with the large
and sprawling upper anticyclone over the Srn Plains and an upper
trof along the east coast providing a NNW flow. Not too much in the
way of mid/upper support in the big picture, and the models do not
show any upstream development that might send out an outflow
boundary. Thus, expect the overnight hours and Wednesday to be quiet
relative to the past few days. Fcst soundings show some instability
atop a strong cap early in the day, but as temps rise and the
boundary layer deepens and moisture mixes out, most of that bouyancy
is eliminated.  That does not suggest much of a chance for precip
outside the mtns, so precip prob was kept at or below climo. Temps
should be very similar to today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tue: Expansive upper ridge will remain over the
southern Plains for the latter half of the work week, retrograding
bit as waves progress eastward in the northern stream. The Bermuda
High will remain the dominant feature over the Southeast coast,
though it is suppressed slightly as a trough settles over the
Northeast Friday. Low level winds will remain southerly, but
veer to SW over the course of the forecast period. Overall the
pattern looks routine for July, with PoPs forced by the diurnal
instability cycle, and t-storms remaining disorganized/pulsey on
account of small shear parameters. Temps will warm a bit further
Friday with an uptick in thicknesses, with maxes reaching category
or two above normal. Dewpoints appear likely to mix out enough to
keep heat indices around 100 at most during this period.

Latest NAM does not seem to be generating any MCS activity over
the Midwest Wed or Thu nights as it has on some previous runs,
but it is still not out of the question that such a storm could
develop and be carried into the upper TN Valley or southern
Appalachians. We'll keep an eye on the situation upstream.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...the medium range fcst picks up at 00Z on
Saturday with broad upper ridging over the central CONUS and a
low amplitude upper trof digging down over northern New England.
Over the weekend, as the polar jet becomes more active and moves
farther south, the ridge gradually gets supressed and heights begin
to fall. The period ends early next week with relatively zonal flow
over the SE region and the ridge persisting over the Western CONUS.
At the sfc, we still expect to be under the prevailing Bermuda High
for the whole period. This should keep light, southerly flow over the
region each day with near climo summertime POPs and very warm temps.
Heat indices climb to advisory levels over much of the lower elevations
for Saturday and Sunday and get very close on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT...VFR through the period outside of thunderstorms. Radar
shows that a few showers have developed to the NW over the NC
Foothills near a cloudy/clear boundary from earlier in the day. Not
much development to these showers yet so there is no immediate push
to include this in the fcst. The models still look to be on track
with the most likely period that thunderstorms would move across the
airport closer to the 21Z to 23Z time frame. That will be handled
with a TEMPO group. The latest guidance really does not favor much
activity after the late afternoon peak, so the VCSH will be run into
the late evening instead of including a PROB30 later on. Wind should
have a northerly component through the period and will be light away
from thunderstorm outflows. Could have some low cloud/fog
restrictions toward daybreak IF precip falls. This was left out of
the TAF for the time being. Wednesday should be quiet thru 18Z.

Elsewhere: same situation with slightly different timing on a TEMPO
for thunderstorms this afternoon. A fog restriction is possible
again in the Fr. Broad Valley near KAVL around daybreak Wednesday.
Other restrictions will depend on thunderstorm activity.

Outlook: Expect fairly typical midsummer weather with afternoon
showers and thunderstorms during the middle and latter part of the
week. Morning fog and low stratus will be possible each day in the
mountain valleys and also in locations that received heavy rainfall
in the preceding afternoon/evening.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  87%     High  91%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  94%     High  94%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
413 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-
200815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-ALEXANDER-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-
HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
413 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVERS AND
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-
200815-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-
LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
413 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVERS AND
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...EXCESSIVE HEAT POSSIBLE. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 108 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
..SUNDAY...EXCESSIVE HEAT POSSIBLE. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST
DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR
POSSIBLY SEEING HEAT INDEX VALUES 105 DEGREES OR GREATER.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ010-NCZ062-063-SCZ001-191815-
RABUN GA-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-MACON NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RABUN...SOUTH
CENTRAL JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN MACON AND NORTH CENTRAL OCONEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 140 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES NORTHEAST OF CLAYTON...OR NEAR HIGHLANDS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...HIGHLANDS...CASHIERS...PINE
MOUNTAIN...WHITESIDE MOUNTAIN AND BAD CREEK.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3514 8311 3494 8298 3493 8322 3502 8326
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 244DEG 8KT 3501 8317

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
238 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ053-064-065-191915-
BUNCOMBE NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-HENDERSON NC-
238 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...SOUTH CENTRAL BUNCOMBE AND CENTRAL
HENDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 237 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 7 MILES WEST OF HENDERSONVILLE...OR NEAR ETOWAH...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... HENDERSONVILLE...ARDEN...MILLS
RIVER...FLETCHER...ETOWAH...MOUNTAIN HOME... LAUREL PARK...B.R.
PARKWAY-NC ARBORETUM TO EAST ASHEVILLE...ASHEVILLE AIRPORT AND
SKYLAND.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3522 8260 3538 8272 3555 8249 3532 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 238DEG 9KT 3535 8259

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ053-064-065-192000-
BUNCOMBE NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-HENDERSON NC-
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT NORTH
CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA...SOUTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE AND NORTHWESTERN
HENDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 330 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...OR NEAR
MOUNT PISGAH...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNT PISGAH...B.R. PARKWAY-MOUNT PISGAH TO THE NC ARBORETUM AND
CANDLER.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3555 8266 3539 8260 3533 8276 3539 8277
      3541 8275 3542 8275 3543 8276 3544 8278
      3549 8279 3550 8278 3551 8279
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 345DEG 10KT 3546 8273

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
419 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ049-050-192045-
YANCEY NC-MITCHELL NC-
419 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL AND NORTHWESTERN YANCEY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
EDT...

AT 418 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 6 MILES SOUTH OF ERWIN...OR 5 MILES SOUTH OF BANNER
HILL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
POPLAR...GREEN MOUNTAIN...RAMSEYTOWN AND SWISS.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3601 8221 3591 8244 3599 8249 3601 8246
      3607 8242 3609 8240 3612 8236 3612 8232
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 328DEG 17KT 3605 8240

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
428 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCZ503-504-192100-
GREATER BURKE NC-BURKE MOUNTAINS NC-
428 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
BURKE COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 428 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 8 MILES NORTH OF MORGANTON...OR NEAR TABLE ROCK...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORGANTON...TABLE ROCK AND OAK HILL.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3591 8174 3588 8171 3586 8167 3582 8161
      3573 8172 3591 8187 3593 8177
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 328DEG 17KT 3586 8175

NED