Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

163 
WWUS52 KGSP 191843
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
243 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCC175-SCC077-191900-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0171.000000T0000Z-160719T1900Z/
TRANSYLVANIA NC-PICKENS SC-
243 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA AND NORTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTIES...

AT 243 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES NORTHWEST
OF PICKENS...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF JOCASSEE GORGES...MOVING SOUTH AT 5
MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROSMAN...SASSAFRAS MOUNTAIN...SUNSET...ROCKY BOTTOM...
LAKE JOCASSEE...JOCASSEE GORGES AND GORGES STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OVER SMALL
AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORMS IS ALSO PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOODING OF
DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. SMALL STREAMS WILL
RISE RAPIDLY. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER IS FLOWING OVER
THE ROAD.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL
FREE...1...800... 2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK
PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 8293 3501 8291 3503 8292 3505 8290
      3505 8291 3515 8284 3512 8274 3508 8274
      3508 8275 3507 8275 3507 8277 3505 8274
      3494 8275 3500 8294
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 016DEG 6KT 3505 8283 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

NED

307 
WWUS52 KGSP 191859
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

NCC175-SCC077-191909-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0171.000000T0000Z-160719T1900Z/
TRANSYLVANIA NC-PICKENS SC-
259 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TRANSYLVANIA AND
NORTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 300 PM EDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

IF YOU OBSERVED LARGE HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE...PLEASE REPORT IT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL
FREE... 1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK
PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

LAT...LON 3501 8293 3501 8291 3503 8292 3505 8290
      3505 8291 3515 8284 3512 8274 3508 8274
      3508 8275 3507 8275 3507 8277 3505 8274
      3494 8275 3500 8294
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 016DEG 6KT 3505 8283 

$$

NED

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
139 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will approach from the north today, bringing increased
chances for showers and thunderstorms. The front dissipates over the
region Wednesday and subtropical high pressure builds back in for
the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...convective initiation has finally
happened over the higher ridgetops across the NC mountains and near
a cloudy/clear boundary over the NC foothills. Expect convection to
expand from there, but no reason to think coverage will be more than
scattered.

Upper ridge will continue to dominate the central portion of the
country today as a trough deepens down the Eastern Seaboard as the
parent low over Quebec digs southeast. The lee trough that has been
in place over the Carolinas will be reinforced as a weak front dives
down with the trough. Synoptic lift will increase today in the form
of weak PVA as well as jet-level diffluence and an approaching jet
streak. This will combine with increasing instability (with
plentiful boundary layer moisture and typical summertime heating) to
produce another round of convection this afternoon. Steep low-level
lapse rates will be supportive of a few strong to potentially severe
storms or clusters with damaging winds the primary threat, SPC SREF
indicates a large area of dCAPE >1000J/kg developing over the Blue
Ridge by 18z and expanding into the Piedmont through the rest of the
afternoon and evening. As has been the case recently mid-level lapse
rates won't be steep enough to promote much in the way of hail
growth, so expect to see more in the way of heavy rain than hail.
With PW values 1.5-2", this might produce a flash flood threat
especially over the southwest mountains where QPFs are highest (at
least across our area), but as the wave continues to push through it
looks like there should be enough flow aloft to keep storms from
anchoring too long in any one place.

There seem to be two camps when it comes to convective evolution
today, with once camp initiating some isolated thunderstorms along
the Blue Ridge, spreading them south/southeast and then dissipating,
but then simultaneously initiating a much larger complex over
north/central NC and allowing it to propagate south and eventually
southwest, steered more with the 700mb flow. The second camp
indicates less of a large complex and more in the way of
multicellular clusters propagating along outflow boundaries every
which way but generally southeast. In any case, the best
moisture/instability/lift seem to line up better to our east across
the central Carolinas, but certainly enough support for the
continued advertisement of Marginal Risk across most of the area
today.

As for temperatures, highs today will be a battle between
thicknesses and insolation/cloud cover. Definitely have some bust
potential depending on how widespread the cloud cover ends up but
have erred on the side of warmer. Not a whole lot of change in
overnight lows tonight from what we're seeing this morning, but with
the front pushing through, the northern Piedmont along the I-77
corridor might see lows a couple of degrees cooler tonight as
dewpoints drop a couple of degrees late in the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...A gigantic upper ridge will persist across a
large portion of the CONUS during the Short Term, while shallow
troughing lingers over the Northeast states. A weak front will slide
south and basically wash out across the Carolinas on Wednesday. Some
drier air will filter in from the north, and convective coverage
should be near or below climo. Temps will be near normal.

On Thursday, guidance would suggest that perhaps our best chance of
an MCS coming around the ridge and into our area would be late
Wednesday or during the day on Thursday, but this is still a low
probability. Overall, the NAM and GFS suggest that there won't be a
lot of overlap between the high MUCAPE under the ridge and the
better shear around the periphery. At least between the southern
Appalachians and the Great Lakes. Right now, it looks like a Bermuda
high pressure pattern will set up, with a return to climo PoPs and
increasing humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 AM Tuesday...The big story for the medium range will be
the heat. The large upper ridge over the central CONUS will begin to
flatten somewhat, but also expand eastward into the Southeast states
for this upcoming weekend. Weak, but persistent low-level downslope
west-northwesterly flow and overall increasing thicknesses should
result in temps climbing to the upper 90s to around 100 degrees for
Saturday and Sunday. While a little mixing of dewpts is expected,
they are forecast to linger in the upper 60s to lower 70s east of
the mountains during the heat of the day. So heat index values will
likely climb into a range of about 100 to 108 degrees across most of
the piedmont, unless dewpts end up a little lower. Will continue to
mention in the HWO. PoPs will remain near climo for Friday and
Saturday, and perhaps a little higher for Sunday and Monday, as the
ridge starts to retrograde and heights fall over the area slightly.
Monday looks to be not quite as hot as Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT...VFR through the period outside of thunderstorms. Radar
shows that a few showers have developed to the NW over the NC
Foothills near a cloudy/clear boundary from earlier in the day. Not
much development to these showers yet so there is no immediate push
to include this in the fcst. The models still look to be on track
with the most likely period that thunderstorms would move across the
airport closer to the 21Z to 23Z time frame. That will be handled
with a TEMPO group. The latest guidance really does not favor much
activity after the late afternoon peak, so the VCSH will be run into
the late evening instead of including a PROB30 later on. Wind should
have a northerly component through the period and will be light away
from thunderstorm outflows. Could have some low cloud/fog
restrictions toward daybreak IF precip falls. This was left out of
the TAF for the time being. Wednesday should be quiet thru 18Z.

Elsewhere: same situation with slightly different timing on a TEMPO
for thunderstorms this afternoon. A fog restriction is possible
again in the Fr. Broad Valley near KAVL around daybreak Wednesday.
Other restrictions will depend on thunderstorm activity.

Outlook: Expect fairly typical midsummer weather with afternoon
showers and thunderstorms during the middle and latter part of the
week. Morning fog and low stratus will be possible each day in the
mountain valleys and also in locations that received heavy rainfall
in the preceding afternoon/evening.

Confidence Table...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     Med   66%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
413 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-
200815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-ALEXANDER-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-
HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
413 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVERS AND
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-
200815-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-
LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
413 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. SOME STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVERS AND
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...EXCESSIVE HEAT POSSIBLE. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 108 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
..SUNDAY...EXCESSIVE HEAT POSSIBLE. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST
DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR
POSSIBLY SEEING HEAT INDEX VALUES 105 DEGREES OR GREATER.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

GAZ010-NCZ062-063-SCZ001-191815-
RABUN GA-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-MACON NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-
141 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN RABUN...SOUTH
CENTRAL JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN MACON AND NORTH CENTRAL OCONEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 140 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES NORTHEAST OF CLAYTON...OR NEAR HIGHLANDS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...HIGHLANDS...CASHIERS...PINE
MOUNTAIN...WHITESIDE MOUNTAIN AND BAD CREEK.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3514 8311 3494 8298 3493 8322 3502 8326
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 244DEG 8KT 3501 8317

08