Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
243 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will approach from the north early tomorrow, bringing
an increased chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Typical summertime conditions will continue through the workweek
as subtropical high pressure builds over the Southeast states.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Monday...the forecast still appears to be on track
this afternoon. See no reason to make any significant changes.
Scattered showers and storms are expected to keep developing over
the higher terrain, and redeveloping on outflow boundaries into the
early part of the evening. Precip probability will be best over the mtns
and Savannah R basin where low level support will be best thru the
afternoon, but PoP will be limited to the chance range. Otherwise...
will keep an eye on convection well to the north to see if it
approaches the NC mountains later this evening. Will keep a small
chance over the mtns thru the overnight for that possibility.

A gradual change aloft will take place over the next 24 hours that
will see the eastward extension of the upper ridge axis slip farther
south. This shift will expose the western Carolinas, and especially
the Piedmont, to a more favorable environment for deep convection as
the upper flow becomes difluent. Meanwhile...a surface boundary will
drop down from the NNW across the mtns early on Tuesday. We should
have no problems initiating deep convection with sufficient boundary
layer heating around midday, however the lack of mid-level forcing
might limit the coverage across much of the area. Coverage should be
best over the eastern zones as the surface front slips into the
position normally occupied by the lee trof. Some of the storms could
become severe in the afternoon, especially east of the mtns given
the expected profile supporting ample downdraft CAPE. Have no
problems with the marginal risk seen on the Day2 convective outlook,
although I like the chances over the Midlands and Sand Hills and
eastern Piedmont a bit better. Temps will be seasonally warm again,
but heat index should not approach advisory levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday: An enormous upper anticyclone will remain
essentially stationary over the central CONUS over the short-range
period, retrograding ever so slightly. Our area will remain on its
eastern periphery. As the frontal boundary pushes further south
Tuesday night, surface high pressure will push in from the Great
Lakes region. Some instability will linger into the evening as the
boundary slowly departs our area. 4km NAM indicates some activity
may organize along this boundary just to our east Tuesday evening;
it is plausible that could occur a bit further west, so the diurnal
PoPs have been retained well into the night over the lower Piedmont.

The upper trough over the mid-Atlantic coast will deepen Wednesday,
and the 500mb flow will re-orient such that the MCS/MCV track leads
from the upper Mississippi Valley to the southern Appalachians. Most
recent couple runs of the NAM have depicted some remnant activity
diving south to near Louisville on Thursday. We'll have to keep
an eye on the convection-allowing guidance as we approach that
time. For now, it appears activity should be rather routine and
diurnally driven both Wed and Thu aftns, with a focus on the
mountains. Pulse storms or loosely organized multicells would be
most likely to result if the activity is not associated with an
upstream MCS. Max temps Wed will be a degree or so above climo.

As the aforementioned surface high moves offshore and merges with
the Bermuda High by Thursday, the initially northerly low-level
flow will veer around to south again in response. This, combined
with a small vort max (possibly MCV) moving overhead, suggests a
slight rebound in storm coverage. It also will initiate a warming
trend which will continue into the weekend. Max temps will be a
category or so above climo Thu aftn, but dewpoints should mix out
enough to preclude excessive heat headlines at that time.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2 PM Monday...the medium range fcst picks up at 00Z on
Friday with broad and steep upper ridging over the central
CONUS and a lingering upper trof off the east coast. As we go
into the weekend, the ridge gets flattened by various upper level
shortwaves embedded within a broader trof. This acts to steadily
lower heights over the SE region as the northern stream trof
moves over Eastern Canada. The period ends early next week with
relatively zonal flow over our region and the ridge persisting
over the Western CONUS. At the sfc, we expect to be under the
prevailing Bermuda High for essentially the entire period. This
will keep light, southerly flow over the region each day. The models
had been suggesting that another weak cold front could approach
the CWFA late Saturday/early Sunday, however the latest model runs
look weaker and weaker. As for the sensible fcst, no significant
changes were needed with near climo POPs for Fri and the weekend,
and above climo POPs for Monday. Temps should start out at least
a category above normal on Friday with highs in the upper 90s over
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT...prevailing VFR through the period. Some enhanced Cu has
developed across the Piedmont...and a few showers have popped up
near the Charlotte metro area. For this reason, have included a VCSH
through the late afternoon. Will monitor for thunderstorm
development and amend accordingly. Wind has been problematic, with
variable direction between NW and SW. Fortunately, speed has been
light. Will opt for a SW wind to prevail through the afternoon. Only
convective debris will persist overnight. Think the fcst will be
persistent, thus a scattered low stratus deck was introduced at 09Z
and will be kept until 13Z. This could easily be a low MVFR/IFR
ceiling if rain falls near KCLT.  Wind will probably be light NW
again first thing in the morning, and will switch to SW when the lee
trof becomes more dominant with daytime heating. Convection on
Tuesday should hold off until after the end of the period.

Elsewhere...mainly VFR outside the mtns, but low stratus/fog could
develop once again in places where rain falls this afternoon/eve.
Coverage too low to go with anything other than a VCTS at the rest
of the TAF sites. Amendments will be made as sites are threatened.
Otherwise...expect another round of valley fog over the mtns during
the pre-dawn hours.

Outlook: A front will sag into the area on Tuesday afternoon, which
may result in the most active day of the week. Otherwise, fairly
typical midsummer weather with afternoon showers and thunderstorms
expected each day. Morning fog and low stratus will be possible each
day in the mountain valleys and also in locations that received heavy
rainfall in the preceding afternoon/evening.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  89%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  97%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
516 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-
190930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
516 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY
WINDS. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-190930-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
516 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY
WINDS. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...EXCESSIVE HEAT POSSIBLE. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 108 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT FROM THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA SOUTH TO THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
..SUNDAY...EXCESSIVE HEAT POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

GAZ018-SCZ001-004-181915-
STEPHENS GA-GREATER OCONEE SC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-
252 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT EASTERN
STEPHENS AND CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 252 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WALHALLA...OR 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF WESTMINSTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WALHALLA...SENECA AND WESTMINSTER.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 8331 3485 8307 3473 8291 3451 8322
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 302DEG 9KT 3471 8318

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

NCZ064-SCZ001-002-181930-
TRANSYLVANIA NC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-
255 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA...NORTHEASTERN OCONEE AND NORTHWESTERN
PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 254 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF PICKENS...OR NEAR LAKE
JOCASSEE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... DEVILS FORK STATE
PARK...JOCASSEE GORGES...KEOWEE TOXAWAY STATE PARK... LAKE
JOCASSEE...LAKE KEOWEE...GORGES STATE PARK...BAD CREEK...SUNSET...
ROCKY BOTTOM AND NINE TIMES.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3507 8304 3513 8283 3493 8268 3483 8292
      3502 8306 3502 8304 3503 8301 3504 8303
      3505 8304 3505 8306
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 321DEG 11KT 3499 8290

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
307 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

NCZ053-065-505>510-181945-
BUNCOMBE NC-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS NC-GREATER RUTHERFORD NC-
HENDERSON NC-EASTERN POLK NC-POLK MOUNTAINS NC-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS NC-
EASTERN MCDOWELL NC-
307 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD...SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE...SOUTH CENTRAL
MCDOWELL...NORTH CENTRAL POLK AND NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 307 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF RUTHERFORDTON...OR NEAR LAKE
LURE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE LURE...CHIMNEY ROCK STATE PARK...BAT CAVE...SUGAR HILL...SHINGLE
HOLLOW...GLENWOOD...FERO...GERTON AND THERMAL CITY.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3567 8211 3559 8191 3534 8216 3546 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 047DEG 18KT 3549 8220

NED

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