Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

302 
WWUS52 KGSP 180116
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
916 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

NCC045-161-180215-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-160718T0215Z/
RUTHERFORD NC-CLEVELAND NC-
916 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD AND WESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTIES...

AT 916 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SHELBY...OR NEAR POLKVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FOREST CITY...BOILING SPRINGS NC...BELWOOD...LAWNDALE...FALLSTON...
POLKVILLE...ELLENBORO...LATTIMORE...MOORESBORO AND BOSTIC.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN IN THE WARNED
AREA. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT AND INTENSE LIGHTNING. TURN OFF
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. DO NOT USE CORDED TELEPHONES. DO NOT TAKE A
BATH OR SHOWER.

THIS STORMS IS ALSO PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOODING OF
DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. SMALL STREAMS WILL
RISE RAPIDLY. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER IS FLOWING OVER
THE ROAD.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL
FREE...1...800... 2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK
PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3551 8151 3547 8148 3543 8146 3537 8142
      3518 8177 3525 8191 3545 8192 3555 8177
      3556 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 235DEG 13KT 3543 8166 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

NED

231 
WWUS52 KGSP 180134
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
934 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

NCC045-161-180215-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-160718T0215Z/
RUTHERFORD NC-CLEVELAND NC-
934 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND CENTRAL CLEVELAND COUNTIES...

AT 933 PM EDT...A RAIN SHOWER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF SHELBY...OR NEAR LAWNDALE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELWOOD...LAWNDALE...FALLSTON...POLKVILLE...ELLENBORO...LATTIMORE...
MOORESBORO...CASAR...KINGSTOWN AND SUNSHINE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN IN THE WARNED
AREA. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORMS IS ALSO PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOODING OF
DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. SMALL STREAMS WILL
RISE RAPIDLY. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER IS FLOWING OVER
THE ROAD.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL
FREE...1...800... 2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK
PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3551 8151 3547 8148 3543 8146 3537 8142
      3528 8174 3528 8180 3548 8188 3550 8184
      3555 8176 3556 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 0133Z 247DEG 13KT 3543 8159 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

NED

837 
WWUS52 KGSP 180205
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1005 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

NCC045-161-180214-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-160718T0215Z/
RUTHERFORD NC-CLEVELAND NC-
1005 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND
CENTRAL CLEVELAND COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND HAS EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3551 8151 3547 8148 3543 8146 3537 8142
      3528 8174 3528 8180 3548 8188 3550 8184
      3555 8176 3556 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 239DEG 15KT 3550 8145 

$$

NED

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
818 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will remain stalled just to the south of the
area through the weekend. Another weak front will approach the region
on Tuesday, keeping the area in a typical summertime pattern of afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 755 PM, scattered convection erupted over the heart of the
Upstate over the past couple of hours. Pops have been increased to
solid chance across the Lakelands for the next couple of hours. An
isolated microburst will remain possible with the strongest storms,
with heavy rain still being a concern due to slow cell motions.

Otherwise, upper heights will continue to rise as a large
anticyclone builds across the Mississippi Delta region while nearly
zonal flow prevails across the northern OH valley into the Great
Lakes.  At the surface and closer to home, lee troffing will
prevail across portions of northeast GA and the western Carolinas as
high pressure remains centered over the western Atlantic. Pops will
fall off tonight as heating is lost leading into a mostly clear
night.  Guidance once again favors dense mtn valley fog as well as
patchy dense fog over the fthills/piedmont, thus such was included
in the fcst.  Monday doesn't look all that different than today,
with the exception of further H5 height rises. Therefore pops on
Monday are reflective of such by way of only mid range chance pops
over the high terrain, with slight chances once again favored
along/east of I77.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
of 235 PM EDT Sunday: Our forecast area will be caught on the
eastern edge of a "ring of fire" associated with a large sprawling
high pressure system in the central part of the county. Meanwhile a
broad upper level trough, located from the western Great Lakes to
the New England states, will move very little.

The models are suggesting a couple of scenarios with our region in a
semi northwesterly flow aloft. One of which is a series of short
waves which will be dropping southeastward across the area Monday
night through Wednesday. However the timing differences in the
models are large, and also may be tied into convection, from
upstream storms expected in the first half of the new work week.

We decided to side with the idea of left over showers and storms on
the wane Monday evening...near the lee side trough and orographic
enhancement. A cold front will then settle toward our region in the
predawn hours Tuesday, and then inch south through our forecast area
through Wednesday. With plentiful moisture in place, we increased
the chance of showers and thunderstorms, from the predawn hours in
mainly the North Carolina mountains, and then across the region
Tuesday.

The idea then from that point forward was to refocus showers and
thunderstorms to south, with the front.

Currently Tuesday appears to have the best shot for coverage of
showers and thunderstorms. We have kept most of the precipitation
chances in the southern one half of our region Wednesday.

Meanwhile we are close to the temperature profile from the suite of
model guidance through this part of the forecast cycle.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Sunday...the medium range fcst picks up at 00Z on
Thursday with very broad upper ridging over the central CONUS
and a lingering upper trof off the New England Coast. The trof
is slow to move farther offshore, but eventually does by the start
of the weekend. At the same time, the ridge tries to spread farther
east early in the period, but makes little progress and begins to
flatten out by Friday. For the remainder of the period, heights
slowly fall over the SE region as the ridge gradually flattens.
At the sfc, relatively dry high pressure will be centered to our
north to start the medium range. The high is expected to slowly
slide eastward and eventually merge with the prevailing Bermuda High
by the start of the weekend. This will bring southerly, relatively
moist flow back to the region by the end of the work week. The models
suggest that another weak cold front could approach the fcst area late
Saturday into early Sunday, however it currently looks pretty diffuse.
As for the sensible fcst, no notable changes were needed with less
than climo POPs for Thurs and Fri and near climo POPs for the weekend.
Temps should start out around normal and steadily warm each day.
By Sunday, I have highs in the upper 90s for most of the lower
elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT:  Convection has behaved in staying away from the terminal
this evening, and expect this trend to continue through the night.
Could see some marginal MVFR fog develop toward daybreak, and this
trend has been continued in from the inherited TAF, albeit pushed a
couple of hours later. Otherwise, light S winds should persist
through the period. Chances for convection tomorrow afternoon appear
to be more or less similar to today, so convection is omitted for
the time being.

Elsewhere: Chances for convection are dwindling, although showers
will be in the vicinity of the Upstate SC terminals and KHKY for the
first couple of hours of the forecast period. Otherwise, the main
concern will revolve around the potential for development of fog
and/or low stratus, especially at KGMU/KGSP (which saw brief heavy
rain this afternoon), and at KAVL. Still expect LIFR conditions to
develop at KAVL, but these conditions have been pushed later, as
trends do not favor the early onset that was seen last night. Will
also advertise MVFR fog at all other sites, but would not rule out
some localized/brief IFR or LIFR conditions near KGMU/KGSP toward
daybreak. Otherwise, scattered convection will develop once again
Monday afternoon, so PROB30s for TSRA are carried at all sites.

Outlook...Fairly typical midsummer weather with afternoon showers
and thunderstorms expected each day. A front will sag into the area
on Tuesday, which may result in the most active day of the week.
Morning fog and low stratus will be possible each day in the
mountain valleys and also in locations that receive heavy rainfall
in the preceding PM.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  93%     High  97%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High  80%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     Med   63%     Med   77%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  94%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High  94%     High  97%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/JDL
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
505 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-181215-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
505 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNDOWN. HOWEVER UNTIL THEN A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS. ONE OR TWO STORMS MIGHT EVEN BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

STUREY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
731 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

SCZ006-010-012-180000-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-LAURENS SC-ANDERSON SC-
731 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL LAURENS...
SOUTHEASTERN GREENVILLE AND EAST CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 800
PM EDT...

AT 731 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES NORTHEAST OF ANDERSON...OR NEAR WILLIAMSTON...MOVING SOUTH AT
15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELTON...WILLIAMSTON...HONEA PATH...WEST PELZER...FORK SHOALS AND
PRINCETON.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3435 8255 3465 8254 3469 8230 3451 8220
      3446 8231 3448 8232 3440 8244
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 358DEG 11KT 3459 8243

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
801 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

SCZ019-180030-
GREENWOOD SC-
801 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY
UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 801 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES SOUTH OF GREENWOOD...OR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF TROY...MOVING
SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TROY...BRADLEY AND CALLISON.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 8207 3399 8210 3399 8215 3397 8217
      3398 8220 3399 8222 3402 8224 3397 8231
      3400 8232 3408 8230 3410 8210 3398 8206
      3397 8206
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 353DEG 5KT 3402 8220

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
811 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW CALLISON           34.05N 82.18W
07/17/2016                   GREENWOOD          SC   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORT OF ROOF BLOWN OFF HOUSE ON BREEZEWOOD ROAD.

0747 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW GREENWOOD          34.14N 82.20W
07/17/2016                   GREENWOOD          SC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES BLOWN DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF BRIARWOOD AND
            ALEXANDER ROADS.

0749 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE VERDERY            34.09N 82.21W
07/17/2016                   GREENWOOD          SC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE BLOWN DOWN ON WHITEHALL ROAD.

&&

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
815 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

NCZ508-510-180045-
GREATER RUTHERFORD NC-EASTERN POLK NC-
815 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD AND
SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

AT 815 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTHWEST OF FOREST CITY...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF
SPINDALE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... FOREST
CITY...RUTHERFORDTON...SPINDALE...HARRIS...GREEN CREEK...CAROLEEN
AND HENRIETTA.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3535 8177 3518 8184 3519 8204 3521 8215
      3536 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 029DEG 13KT 3526 8195

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
852 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE RUTHERFORDTON     35.32N 81.94W
07/17/2016                   RUTHERFORD         NC   911 CALL CENTER

            COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORTS SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN SOUTH
            OF RUTHERFORDTON.

&&

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
900 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E BRADLEY             34.06N 82.18W
07/17/2016                   GREENWOOD          SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SCHP REPORTED A TREE DOWN AT BREEZEWOOD RD AND ROCK
            HOUSE RD

0730 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E BRADLEY             34.05N 82.19W
07/17/2016                   GREENWOOD          SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SCHP REPORTED A TREE DOWN AT WHITEHALL RD AND ROCK
            HOUSE RD

&&

KRENTZ