Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
751 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The warm and unstable airmass in place over the area will persist
into the weekend providing ample chances for widespread showers and
thunderstorms. A weak cold front will approach from the northwest
over the weekend and stall near the area through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 730 PM Thursday: After coordination with SPC, went ahead with
a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the western NC counties where low
level shear combined with modest CAPE should allow for some
continued organization of the MCS, even as the mountains continue to
tear it apart. Severe threat is low-end but there nonetheless and
felt it better to have the watch out than not. Otherwise updates for
the early evening are mainly for aviation grids. Will need to make
some significant pop updates soon to account for updated radar
trends.

For tomorrow, the upper ridge is expected to begin building into the
area from the southwest. The main impact of this will be to increase
thickness values. Combined with a decent westerly downslope flow,
temperatures are expected to be very hot tomorrow, likely reaching
the century mark across much of the upper Savannah River Valley. The
warming mid-level temps will also tend to make the atmosphere less
supportive of deep convection, especially across the southern part
of the area, where pops will be advertised at less than slight
chance. Slight to low chances will be advertised across the north.
Dewpoints are expected to mix out somewhat in the westerly flow/
deep boundary layer regime. Thus, heat indices are generally
expected to top out at less than advisory criteria (105 outside the
mtns), but some portions of the upper Savannah River Valley and the
SC Lakelands will be close.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday:  The short term fcst period kicks off on
Friday evening amidst deep layer ridging as an elongated H5
anticyclone remains draped across the southeast states, while a
close upper low and associated trof swing through the great lakes
region perhaps flattening the southern ridge a tad.  At the surface,
high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will be providing ample
subsidence across much of the southeast, northward over the southern
Appalachians, while a weak cold front sweeps through the northern OH
valley.

Pattern evolution through the Saturday favors said cold front
sliding into the western NC high terrain by mid/late morning, before
stalling out.  Downsloping flow over the piedmont looks to be the
primary weather feature on Saturday as skies remain mostly sunny
ahead of the stalled front while llv subsidence keeps convection at
bay amongst temperatures in the upper 90s.  Profiles do exhibit
steep low/mid level lapse rates across the entire fcst area which
would support strong/severe convection, if the cap breaks.  However,
those same soundings favor much stronger subsidence across the
piedmont, and therefore warranting non mentionable pops, increasing
to chance levels over the mtns where upslope and frontal convergence
could initiate convection.

Meanwhile, a secondary/strong cold front looks to back door into the
region overnight into Sunday ahead of a sprawling area of high
pressure moving into/across the southern Great Lakes region.  At
this point operational guidance tends to diverge a bit regarding the
eventual evolution/outcome of this front.  The GFS centers the
surface anticyclone further south and thus is more aggressive with
the fropa pushing it south of the fcst area into the Midlands before
stalling out late in the day.  On the other hand, the ECMWF favors a
more northern centering of the sfc ridge and thus stalls the front
atop the fcst area.  Either way the front will most likely become a
focus for convection, the question is where does it set up.  Will
likely hedge with regards to the fcst thereby favoring chance pops
south of I40, tapering downward further north.  Temperatures on
Sunday will remain above normal, however nearly 5 degrees cooler
than that of Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 210 PM Thursday: the medium range fcst picks up at 00z on
Monday with lingering upper trofing over Northern New England and
steep upper ridging centered over the Central CONUS. The models also
generate an embedded upper shortwave on Sunday and move the feature
over the fcst area early Monday. Over the next couple of days, the
ridge axis will slide over the Eastern CONUS while a large cutoff H5
low follows in its wake but remains far to our NW. At the surface,
deep layer moisture is expected to be over the CWFA by early Monday
as a weak frontal boundary stalls out to our east. Once the boundary
washes out on Tuesday, we'll be left under weak southerly flow from
the Bermuda High that will provide ample chances for scattered to
widespread convection each day/evening. Temperatures should remain
near normal if not a few degrees above each day of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere except KAVL: VFR through the period with the
exception of possible brief MVFR fog at daybreak at KHKY. Could see
some low-end gusts early in the period but winds will die down to
5kt or so overnight. Will monitor trends of slowly dissipating MCS
to see if -SHRA makes it east but confidence not particularly high.
SW winds pick up again tomorrow with low-end gusts. Convection
chances not high enough to introduce PROB30 for Friday afternoon at
this time.

At KAVL: MCS pushing through at TAF time and have continued VCTS
with TEMPO TSRA through 02z. Up-valley winds expected overnight and
should pick up tomorrow with low-end gusts.  Continued previous
trend of brief daybreak MVFR fog but should be short-lived if it
occurs at all. As with other sites, convection chances not high
enough to introduce PROB30 for Friday afternoon at this time.

Outlook: A mainly diurnal pattern of showers and thunderstorms will
continue into the weekend. Fog and low stratus will be possible each
morning in the mountain river valleys and also in locations that
receive heavy rainfall from diurnal thunderstorms. A frontal
boundary may stall across the terminal area early next week to keep
the weather active.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Med   66%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-07

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      95 1993     62 1940     70 1948     50 1972
   KCLT     100 1993     65 1979     78 1881     55 1972
                1954
                1930
   KGSP     100 1993     66 1979     75 1977     58 1972
                1986                    1930        1892
                1888

RECORDS FOR 07-08

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      96 1988     63 1909     69 1969     50 1972
   KCLT     101 2012     75 1950     81 1881     58 1892
                2010
   KGSP     101 1986     72 1896     76 2012     57 1913
                1888                    1931

RECORDS FOR 07-09

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      93 1986     64 1979     71 1980     49 1896
   KCLT     101 1986     71 1908     78 1986     57 1891
   KGSP     100 1993     67 1979     78 1930     55 1896
                1986
                1977

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/TDP
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...TDP
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
327 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-081930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-
327 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-501>506-081930-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-
327 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE STRONG PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ068>072-082-507>510-SCZ001>014-019-081930-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
327 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

HEAT INDICES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES AND APPROACH 105 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...EXCESSIVE HEAT POSSIBLE. APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL
EXCEED 100 DEGREES AND APPROACH 105 DEGREES.
..SATURDAY...EXCESSIVE HEAT POSSIBLE. APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL
EXCEED 100 DEGREES AND APPROACH 105 DEGREES.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO OUR OFFICE.

CDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
734 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

SCZ013-014-080015-
UNION SC-CHESTER SC-
734 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN UNION AND WESTERN
CHESTER COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

AT 733 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHESTER TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST
OF UNION...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... UNION...MONARCH
MILL...JONESVILLE...LOCKHART...CARLISLE...CHESTER STATE
PARK...ADAMSBURG...LEEDS...CORNWELL AND SANTUC.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3461 8157 3487 8175 3490 8172 3483 8146
      3482 8147 3482 8140 3481 8135 3456 8109
      3457 8142 3455 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 321DEG 17KT 3468 8129 3483 8168

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
744 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW RICHBURG          34.69N 81.07W
07/07/2016                   CHESTER            SC   911 CALL CENTER

            COUNTY COMMS REPORTS SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
            ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCALES
            NEAR EDGEMOOR...RICHBURG AND GREAT FALLS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
757 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROBBINSVILLE            35.32N 83.81W
07/07/2016                   GRAHAM             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
758 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRYSON CITY             35.43N 83.45W
07/07/2016                   SWAIN              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
808 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FRANKLIN                35.18N 83.38W
07/07/2016                   MACON              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            A FEW TREES DOWN...INCLUDING ONE ON A RESIDENCE.

&&

TPALMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
813 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

GAZ010-017-080045-
RABUN GA-HABERSHAM GA-
813 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HABERSHAM AND RABUN
COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

AT 813 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES WEST OF CLAYTON...OR NEAR MOCCASIN CREEK STATE PARK...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... CLAYTON...MOUNTAIN
CITY...TIGER...TALLULAH FALLS...LAKEMONT...LAKE RABUN... MOCCASIN
CREEK STATE PARK...MOCCASIN CREEK STATE PARK...LAKE BURTON AND BLACK
ROCK MOUNTAIN STATE PARK.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 8365 3485 8366 3491 8362 3492 8360
      3494 8360 3495 8355 3498 8355 3495 8314
      3488 8321 3488 8324 3482 8327 3482 8331
      3481 8330 3479 8332 3476 8332 3473 8335
      3469 8334 3467 8337 3460 8340 3481 8366
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 296DEG 31KT 3486 8355

ARK