Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
741 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and unstable airmass will persist across the area into the
weekend with thunderstorms possible each afternoon and evening.
A weak cold front will move into the area from the northwest early
Sunday and become stationary through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 730 PM Friday: Early evening updates are mainly for aviation
purposes, but did make another round of adjustments to pops to
account for current trends and slowly catching-up CAMs. Severe
tstorm watch out currently and radar is lit up with convection, with
a few storms that have broken containment moving toward the more
unstable air in the Piedmont. Have seen some nasty wind gusts with
the MCS crossing the mountains, including an 87mph gust at
Grandfather Mountain!

As a personal note, have seen some questions about tornadic
potential for this evening on social media, with "e-sighs" of relief
when responses from the weather enterprise have downplayed the
tornado threat. Make no mistake, straight-line winds can be JUST as
deadly as tornadoes, especially when we're talking 70-80 MPH winds!
Residents across the area should take SVR warnings seriously and not
stand down just because there's little to no tornado threat! If a
tree falls on your house or vehicle, it doesn't matter if the wind
was straight or in circles. Take shelter!

Otherwise, for Saturday, guidance is trying to introduce drier air
into the forecast area by afternoon. In fact, the GFS has little
CAPE depicted along and north of the I-40 corridor tomorrow
afternoon. Indeed, based upon forecast soundings, surface dewpoints
could mix out to the upper 50s. Nevertheless, this is all far from a
certainty. Slight to low chance pops will be advertised during the
afternoon. High temps will once again be well above normal, with the
upper Savannah River Valley once again expected to approach the
century mark. The lower dewpoints should keep heat indices below
advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday:  The short term fcst period initializes on
Saturday evening as a large H5 trof advects eastward atop the Great
Lakes, while a upper anticyclone dominates across the southern
Plains and Four Corners.  At the surface, high pressure centered
over the eastern Gulf will be the prevailing feature across the
southeast while a front/trof associated with the a fore mentioned H5
cyclone slides through the OH valley into the Appalachians region
with sprawling high pressure filling in behind across the Midwest.

Pattern evolution through the short term features eastward advection
of the primary upper ridge, while the surface high complies by way
of eastward advection into the northern OH valley into Sunday,
before moving into the Mid Atlantic region on Monday.  The above
mentioned cold front is fcst to push into the region on Sunday,
likely stalling out through the remainder of the period.  Meanwhile,
guidance continues to highlight wave development to the west across
the Ozarks, sliding east into the TN valley Monday and thus finally
working to lift the front northward as southerly waa increases.  The
primary fcst challenge through the short term will be the eventual
track of this wave as the ECMWF moves it just west of the southern
Appalachians on Monday afternoon, while the GFS ejects it sharply to
the north and thus yielding lower impacts across the cwfa.

All said, the fcst really hasn't changed all that much with chance
pops favored on Sunday along/south of the I85 corridor as well as
across portions of the southern/central NC mtns, with slight chances
further north and east.  The pops on Monday will favor more of an
ECMWF solution with increased levels regionwide, the greatest of
which residing across the mtns in closer proximity to the
approaching surface wave.  Thus, the fcst features widespread high
chances across the mtns on Monday, with low/mid chances over the
remainder of the fcst area.  Temperatures will lower a bit on Sunday
however remain 3-4 degrees above normal, before returning to near
normal levels on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2 PM Friday: the medium range fcst picks up at 00z on Tuesday
with steep upper ridging building over the region from the west and
a persistent closed H5 low moving up the west side of the ridge. Some
of the guidance continues to generate a fairly potent looking H5 shortwave
over the fcst area that is embedded within the ridge. This feature
is expected to dissolve by early Wednesday as the ridge axis moves
north of the Carolinas and a more zonal upper pattern settles over the
region in its wake. Some degree of upper lvl troffing will likely
persist along the central US/Canada border, however it should not
have a significant impact on our synoptic pattern.

At the surface, a lingering weak frontal boundary will lift north of
the CWFA on Tuesday with moist southerly low level flow associated with
the Bermuda High spreading back over the CWFA. Another weak cold front
is expected to approach the CWFA late Thursday/early Friday and bring
additional deep layer moisture to the area for the end of the Medium
Range period. No major changes were needed to the sensible fcst with
slight chance to high-end solid chance POPs each day/evening. Temps have
been showing a warming trend based on the latest guidance with values
expected to remain 2 to 4 degrees above climatology each day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection has blown up across the area and
as MCS barrels its way SE, have added either TEMPO or VCTS or both
for all TAFs, with slight differences in timing. Rapid clearing
overnight after the convection moves through with winds pretty close
to W, but favored just N of W for the KCLT TAF. VFR conditions
expected for now but cannot rule out some fog around daybreak in
typical valleys or areas that received more rain. Added PROB30 for
Upstate TAFs for Saturday afternoon.

Outlook: A mainly diurnal pattern of showers and thunderstorms will
continue into the weekend. Fog and low stratus will be possible each
morning in the mountain river valleys and also in locations that
receive heavy rainfall from diurnal thunderstorms. A frontal
boundary may stall across the terminal area early next week to keep
the weather active.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-08

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      96 1988     63 1909     69 1969     50 1972
   KCLT     101 2012     75 1950     81 1881     58 1892
                2010
   KGSP     101 1986     72 1896     76 2012     57 1913
                1888                    1931

RECORDS FOR 07-09

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      93 1986     64 1979     71 1980     49 1896
   KCLT     101 1986     71 1908     78 1986     57 1891
   KGSP     100 1993     67 1979     78 1930     55 1896
                1986
                1977

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/TDP
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...TDP
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
619 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510-092230-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
619 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE PIEDMONT AND MOUNTAINS
OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF EAST
TENNESSEE INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 60 TO
70 MPH...AS WELL AS HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. IN
ADDITION...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-SCZ001>010-012>014-092230-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-LAURENS-UNION-
CHESTER-
619 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND PIEDMONT EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  IN
ADDITION...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ026-028-029-SCZ011-019-092230-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ABBEVILLE-GREENWOOD-
619 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

REMNANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

CDG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
727 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     TSTM WND GST     GAMEWELL                35.87N 81.60W
07/08/2016  E60 MPH          CALDWELL           NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            TURTLE DOVE RD

&&

CGANT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
736 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GAMEWELL                35.87N 81.60W
07/08/2016                   CALDWELL           NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN NEAR MOBILE HOME PARK ALONG CALICO RD
            AND HARTLAND RD.

&&

CGANT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
746 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     HAIL             5 E BRYSON CITY         35.42N 83.36W
07/08/2016  M0.88 INCH       JACKSON            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&