Alert archive / North Carolina / Special Weather Statements in 2016
Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this special weather statement at Jul 5, 2016, 12:49 PM EDT for Buncombe County, North Carolina. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 5, 2016, 12:49 PM EDT (16:49 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 5, 2016, 1:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 41 min
- Issued by
- NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
County Buncombe County, NC
The radar
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 4.8 hours before the alert went out and 267 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 427 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -108 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1117 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 30 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 72 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 97 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 0.8
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 5, 10:56 AM EDT, 1 hour 53 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 5, 10:56 AM EDT, 1 hour 53 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1056 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will approach the southern Appalachians
from the west late today and drift east across the region tonight. A
pattern of warm and unstable air will then continue across the
region the rest of the week and into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1040 AM, an area of garden-variety convection is poised to
move into the western part of the forecast area over the next hour.
This activity originated across the TN Valley earlier this morning,
aided by a slow-moving mid-level short wave trough. However, as
convection moves farther away from this feature, it will become
increasingly reliant upon cell regeneration along a relatively weak
cold pool in order to maintain itself. The air mass across our area
is destabilizing quite nicely late this morning, esp across the
Piedmont, where dewpoints in the lower 70s, along with air temps
that were already pushing 90 were resulting in sbCAPE AOA 2000 J/kg.
This would seem to be good news for the rain-starved Piedmont areas.
However, dewpoints have tended to lower during the past couple of
afternoons thanks to relatively deep mixing and a very dry ground.
This may well be the case again today. Indeed, the latest HRRR
actually suggests this initial area of convection will begin to fall
apart shortly after entering the area. Therefore, pops will be
maintained in the likely range across the mtns, increased to likely
across the upper Savannah River Valley, but maintained in the chance
category east of those areas.
Deep layer shear is somewhat respectable for the time of year,
generally in the 15-25 kts range. High freezing levels should
preclude much of a severe hail threat, but a threat for damaging
microbursts will exist, especially if convection is able to attain
some degree of clustering/organization along outflows.
Very warm mid 90s plus max temps are expected over much of the
foothills and piedmont with heat index values peaking around 103 in
the lower piedmont. Will mention both the heat and marginal severe
threats in the HWO.
Convective coverage should slowly taper off tonight as the shortwave
moves gradually east. Low condensation pressure deficits are likely
in the mountains behind the shortwave and valley fog is expected.
Mild min temps some 5 to 8 degrees above climo will continue.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
At 230 AM Tuesday: On Wednesday morning nearly zonal upper flow will
be over the souther tier of the USA, with the models showing vort
lobe crossing the southern Appalachians that is slightly more robust
in the GFS than the ECMWF. This feature slowly crosses our area
during the day, followed by a weaker vort lobe on Thursday. On
Thursday night an even weaker vort lobe reaches the southern
Appalachians.
At the surface, on Wednesday morning the remains of a cold front
will be stalled near the VA and NC border, then south along the blue
ridge into GA, while an upper trough will be in place of the eastern
seaboard. Low level moisture, instability, and modest shear will
support convective development. Although little will be left of the
front by Thursday, moisture will remain over the area, particularly
over the mountains. Model time heights show variation in the depth
of the moist layer and shear through the day, leaving some question
as to convective modes and precipitation amounts. Temperatures will
run around five degrees above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At 230 AM Tuesday: On Friday and Saturday the models show
amplification of the upper patter taking place, resulting in a ridge
over the plains, and a trough over the eastern seaboard. By Monday
the upper ridge reaches the MA RIver Valley, while the trough Moves
off the east coast. The models show an upper vort lobe approaching
the Appalachians, but vary on its location and strength, with the
weaker GFS feature the northern Gulf States, and the stronger ECMWF
feature over eastern KY.
At the surface, the models show an upper trough remaining along the
eastern seaboard, with the ECMWF trough much more robust than that
of the GFS. Moisture will be present along the southern periphery of
the trough over the western Carolinas and northeast GA. A cold front
approaches from the northwest on Saturday, stalling over the our area
on Sunday and Monday. Instability appears to be present through the
period, perhaps a bit more subdued on Monday. Modest shear will be
present early on, decreasing toward the end of the forecast. Model
time heights show continue to show some variation with the depth of
moisture, leading to remaining uncertainty on convective modes.
Temperatures will continue to run around five degrees or so above
normal.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere, upstream radar is showing better convective
development around daybreak from central TN to northern AL and this
should move into the region through the day ahead of an approaching
shortwave. Profiles remain warm but the better forcing should yield
vicinity thunder most areas by afternoon with TEMPO/PROB conditions
expected by late day. Will feature the earliest timing at KAVL and
latest at KCLT. Otherwise, expect mainly SCT VFR cumulus with
heating and BKN lowering VFR under/near any TSRA. Winds will be
mainly SW with low end afternoon gusts with mixing, turning more NW
at KAVL toward evening. MVFR clouds may sneak into KAVL later
tonight on moist NW flow into the French Broad valley. Fog will be
spotty and dependent on which locations get rain today.
Outlook: A diurnal pattern of pulse thunderstorms will continue the
rest of the week. Fog and low stratus will be possible each morning
in the mountain river valleys and also in locations that receive
heavy rainfall from diurnal thunderstorms.
Confidence Table...
15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 100% High 100% High 100% Med 64%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 83%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HGHazardous weather outlook, Jul 5, 5:01 AM EDT, 7 hours 48 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 501 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068-069-501>510- SCZ001>003-060915- RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY- MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON- CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL- BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK- OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS- 501 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE. GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ070>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-060915- STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION- GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG- CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 501 AM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 TO 103 DEGREES DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE. 07
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 5, 12:23 PM EDT, 26 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1223 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016
NCZ052-059-062-063-051715-
HAYWOOD NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-MACON NC-
1223 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT JACKSON...SOUTHERN HAYWOOD AND
CENTRAL MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM EDT...
AT 1222 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF SYLVA TO 3 MILES NORTHEAST
OF FRANKLIN...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FRANKLIN...SYLVA...WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...CULLOWHEE...LAKE
JUNALUSKA... CLYDE...MAGGIE VALLEY...BALSAM AND WEBSTER.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
LAT...LON 3533 8340 3533 8334 3540 8335 3550 8328
3555 8277 3547 8280 3544 8278 3542 8275
3541 8275 3539 8278 3532 8283 3531 8288
3529 8292 3524 8293 3519 8299 3517 8298
3516 8300 3513 8298 3510 8302 3516 8351
TIME...MOT...LOC 1622Z 268DEG 34KT 3545 8318 3522 8335
CDGSpecial weather statement, Jul 5, 12:49 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1249 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 NCZ048-052-053-051730- HAYWOOD NC-BUNCOMBE NC-MADISON NC- 1249 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MADISON... NORTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE AND NORTHEASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT... AT 1249 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF WAYNESVILLE...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF CLYDE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...WEST ASHEVILLE...NORTH ASHEVILLE...WOODFIN... WEAVERVILLE...BILTMORE FOREST...UNC-ASHEVILLE...LEICESTER...ENKA AND CANTON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. LAT...LON 3557 8299 3575 8299 3579 8254 3552 8254 TIME...MOT...LOC 1649Z 270DEG 18KT 3566 8290 CDG
The office that day
Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 12:23 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Jackson, Macon | 52 min |
| Jul 5, 1:15 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Rutherford | 45 min |
| Jul 5, 1:17 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Transylvania | 58 min |
| Jul 5, 1:24 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Buncombe | 51 min |
| Jul 5, 1:47 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Henderson, McDowell | 43 min |
| Jul 5, 2:02 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Buncombe, McDowell, Rutherford | 43 min |
| Jul 5, 2:28 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Burke, Catawba, Cleveland, Lincoln, Rutherford | 47 min |
| Jul 5, 2:47 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Lincoln | 28 min |
| Jul 5, 2:53 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Alexander, Burke, Caldwell, Catawba | 37 min |
| Jul 5, 3:24 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Lincoln | 36 min |
| Jul 5, 3:26 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Iredell | 34 min |
| Jul 5, 3:59 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Cabarrus, Davie, Iredell, Rowan | 46 min |
| Jul 5, 4:18 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Cabarrus, Gaston, Mecklenburg | 42 min |
| Jul 5, 4:44 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Union | 46 min |
| Jul 5, 5:02 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Gaston, Mecklenburg | 43 min |
| Jul 5, 2:32 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Abbeville, Greenwood | 58 min |
| Jul 5, 3:01 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Greenville | 29 min |
| Jul 5, 3:46 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Cherokee | 29 min |
| Jul 5, 1:11 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Hart | 64 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in North Carolina, 2016Every special weather statement in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.