Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
257 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will slowly cross our region from west to
east tonight and Wednesday.  A pattern of warm and unstable air will
then continue across the region for the rest of the week and into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A broken line of strong to severe convection is moving across the NC
foothills/SC Blue Ridge and the SC Lakelands this afternoon, with
additional isolated strong activity developing out ahead of it
within an environment characterized by sbCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg
and modest shear (considering the time of year). The strongest
segment, which is producing localized damaging wind gusts is moving
across the NC foothills attm, and this will continue to pose the
most immediate threat of severe weather as it approaches the I-77
corridor over the next couple of hours, encountering more robust
downdraft CAPE as it does so. Likely pops will be carried across the
NC foothills and NW Piedmont over the next couple of hours, with
chances increasing to 40-50 percent across much of the remainder of
the area by late afternoon. Additional activity upstream across
AL/GA is expected to begin wafting into the western zones by the end
of the afternoon, so will allow pops to ramp back up to high
chance/likely across the mtns and far western zones by that time.

Convection is expected to gradually diminish in coverage and
intensity through the evening and into the overnight. However,
chances will continue through the overnight, especially across the
mtns, as a slow-moving mid-level short wave trough approaches the
area from the TN Valley. In fact, there could even be a bit of an
uptick in pops toward daybreak across the western zones.

A consensus of model guidance depicts the aforementioned short wave
traversing the NC zones during the morning/early afternoon, while
the higher resolution operational guidance depicts a secondary vort
max hanging back over the TN Valley during this time, which then
moves over the southern part of the forecast area during the
afternoon. The air mass should once again be quite unstable
tomorrow, and this should support solid chance pops across the
entire area during the afternoon. Localized severe weather will once
again be possible, mainly in the form of damaging winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Tuesday:  The short term fcst period kicks off on
Wednesday evening amidst a departing upper short wave embedded in
nearly zonal flow aloft, while a broad subtropical ridge prevails
over the western Atlantic.  At the surface, ridging beneath the
upper anticyclone is expected to allow for continued southerly
moisture/temperature advection over the southeast states.  Closer to
home, convection looks probable at fcst initialization with mtn
thunderstorms possibly propagating east across the low terrain into
the early/mid evening hours.  Meanwhile, a secondary H5 vortmax and
surface wave across the Ohio valley looks supportive of a MCS that
is fcst to race east/southeast into the evening hours possibly
impacting the NC high terrain overnight into Thursday morning.

Moving along, the pattern on Thursday features a gradual westward
retrograde of the a fore mentioned upper anticyclone, and likewise
elongation of the sfc high.  Meanwhile another H5 wave diving across
the upper Midwest states is progged to strengthen, leading to weak
surface cyclogenesis and thus establishment of a cold front.  As for
northeast Georgia and the Western Carolinas, convection continues to
favor a diurnal trend both on Thursday and Friday as the above
mentioned front isn't expected to arrive until the weekend.  As for
pops, the highest pops will reside across the mtns given profiles
that exhibit the least amount of cin, where as the contrary is
favored across the piedmont, especially on Friday as deep layer
ridging strengthens over the deep south.  Temperatures through the
short term will remain above normal levels for both afternoon highs
as well as morning lows.  Heat index values will also remain
elevated, however shouldn't meet/exceed advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 PM Wednesday: The 500mb pattern amplifies this weekend as
a trough moves east from the Great Lakes to east of New England. The
500mb ridge over the Rockies at 00Z Saturday will gain amplitude and
have an axis roughly over the Mississippi Valley at 00Z Monday. The
trough will be exiting New England to the east Sunday night. A
southern stream 500mb wave is expected to either close as a low or
nearly so as it crosses the SE states in the early half of next week.

At the surface, the cold front will drift south across VA Saturday,
south across the Carolinas Sunday and then stall out on Monday from
TN to near the SC and NC border into Tuesday.  Drier and more stable
air to the north of the front and moist, more unstable air south of
the front. Therefore, chances of convection will depend on where the
front stalls. Unstable air at the start of the medium range Friday
night with over 2000 CAPE at 00Z Saturday over far western zones.
This is consistent with previous model runs. The GFS has pockets of
3000 CAPE over the NC Mtns Saturday PM as the front approaches from
the north. Low to at best moderate CAPE values in the PM hours for
the Sun, Mon and Tues part of the forecast. There will be wind shear
at least on Saturday PM with wind at low levels WSW going to NW at
700mb with more speed shear over NC Mtns as 700mb wind is around
40kts on the ECMWF. The latter part of the forecast depends on what
if any feature forms passing under the ridge.

Temps will be a few degrees above normal Saturday then drop a bit
closer to normal as the front lingers over our area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT: a line of convection is currently moving off the high
terrain, with some isolated activity developing out ahead of it
across the foothills. The air mass only becomes more unstable across
the Piedmont, so see no reason why this activity won't trek near
KCLT by late afternoon/early evening, and tempos for TSRA will be
retained from 20-24Z. In the interim, occl gusts out of the SW in
the upper teens will continue through the afternoon, with higher
gusts possible near thunderstorms. Additional convection will be
possible later into the evening and even the overnight, as activity
currently moving across GA/AL may make a run for the area during
this time. However, this is highly uncertain at this point, and will
just carry a VCSH through the evening. If heavy rain falls at the
terminal this afternoon/evening, some fog/low stratus will be
possible toward daybreak, but confidence is low attm.

Elsewhere: Convection will be possible at all terminals over the
first couple of hours of the forecast period, and tempos have been
included at all sites for that time frame. Additional activity could
then overspread the area from the SW during the late afternoon/
evening, so will keep the goalposts wide for VCTS at all sites, but
limit tempos to KAVL for the time being. Convection will remain
possible through the overnight, with the best chances existing near
KAVL, where a VCSH is maintained. Some fog/low stratus will be
possible toward daybreak, mainly at terminals that see significant
rainfall this afternoon/evening.

Outlook: A diurnal pattern of showers and thunderstorms will
continue the rest of the week. Fog and low stratus will be possible
each morning in the mountain river valleys and also in locations
that receive heavy rainfall from diurnal thunderstorms.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  95%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-508-510-SCZ007>009-013-014-
062015-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-CHESTER-
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND PORTIONS OF UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-
505>507-509-SCZ001>006-010>012-019-062015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-
GREENWOOD-
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO OUR OFFICE.

CDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

NCZ036-069-071-052000-
IREDELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-LINCOLN NC-
324 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG...SOUTH
CENTRAL IREDELL AND SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 324 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES WEST OF HUNTERSVILLE...OR 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WESTPORT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUNTERSVILLE...CORNELIUS...DAVIDSON...WESTPORT...RAMSEY CREEK PARK...
DENVER...LAKE NORMAN...MOORESVILLE AND LOWESVILLE.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

LAKE NORMAN IS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
MOVE TO SHORE IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3541 8092 3540 8096 3541 8109 3548 8112
      3559 8086 3542 8079
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 252DEG 18KT 3545 8102

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
326 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

NCZ035-036-056-052000-
IREDELL NC-CATAWBA NC-ALEXANDER NC-
326 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL CATAWBA...CENTRAL
IREDELL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALEXANDER COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 326 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF TAYLORSVILLE...OR NEAR LOOKOUT SHOALS
LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STATESVILLE...STONY POINT...LOOKOUT SHOALS LAKE...TROUTMAN...OLIN...
TURNERSBURG...SCOTTS...MILLERSVILLE...OXFORD AND HIDDENITE.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3573 8117 3587 8119 3597 8081 3571 8079
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 260DEG 17KT 3580 8109

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
343 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W MARION              35.69N 82.06W
07/05/2016                   MCDOWELL           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES ON STRUCTURE AT US70W CAMPGROUND

&&

CGANT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
346 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

NCZ068-SCZ008-009-052015-
CLEVELAND NC-CHEROKEE SC-YORK SC-
346 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN CLEVELAND...
NORTHWESTERN YORK AND NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM
EDT...

AT 346 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTH OF SHELBY...OR NEAR EARL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHELBY...KINGS MOUNTAIN...BOILING SPRINGS NC...BLACKSBURG...GROVER...
PATTERSON SPRINGS...EARL...SMYRNA...KINGS MOUNTAIN STATE PARK AND
CROWDERS MOUNTAIN STATE PARK.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 8135 3513 8169 3526 8167 3530 8136
      3528 8136 3526 8132
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 277DEG 22KT 3518 8159

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
359 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

NCZ036-037-057-071-072-052045-
DAVIE NC-CABARRUS NC-ROWAN NC-IREDELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-
359 PM EDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTH CENTRAL MECKLENBURG...ROWAN...CABARRUS...IREDELL AND DAVIE
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 359 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF A CLUSTER
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
13 MILES NORTH OF STATESVILLE TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HUNTERSVILLE...
AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUNTERSVILLE...KANNAPOLIS...DOWNTOWN
CONCORD...SALISBURY...STATESVILLE... MOCKSVILLE...NORTHEAST
CHARLOTTE...WEST CONCORD...CORNELIUS AND MOORESVILLE.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...TRY
TO GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY
FROM OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN
INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED
ELECTRONIC DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG
UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORMS APPROACH.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3528 8045 3528 8086 3606 8099
      3604 8049 3606 8046 3601 8042 3599 8042
      3596 8038 3590 8037 3588 8042 3584 8039
      3585 8042 3583 8049 3577 8045 3574 8046
      3571 8033 3568 8033 3559 8021 3551 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 264DEG 32KT 3599 8084 3536 8074

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
414 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW WOODFIN            35.65N 82.60W
07/05/2016                   BUNCOMBE           NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES REPORTED ALONG
            RIVERSIDE DRIVE.

&&

JMP