Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
804 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions are expected through the end of the work
week. A cold front will push across the region on Friday, with dry
and cooler high pressure arriving this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At 745 PM, KGSP and TCLT radars indicated a line of thunderstorms
developed along a series of outflow boundaries across the upstate of
SC. These thunderstorms will track north across the KCLT region from
0z to 3z. The far western end of the line will track near KAVL
through 3z as well, with showers lingering well into the night.
Gusty south winds will be likely with the passage of these storms.
The storms should fade as they lift toward the I-40 corridor,
mesoscale analysis indicates a sharp decrease in instability along
and north of a stationary front. Wet ground and clearing debris
clouds will increase the risk of fog developing late tonight.
Visibility could be limited to 3 to 5 SM between 09z to 12z with
fog. Passing h5 trof along with widespread instability should
produce similar to greater TSRA coverage tomorrow afternoon and
evening. Winds should remain from the SW during the daylight hours.

As of 550 PM: I will issue another quick update to increase PoPs
across NE GA...NC mtns...and the upstate through early this evening.
Widespread CAPE and moderate DCAPE will favor the development of
long lasting outflow boundaries to drift across the region...with
cells triggering along the boundaries. This process will continue
across the CWA, until the instability is cut off from the expanding
outflows. I will update temperatures with the latest observations.
KAVL saw its fourth day in a row with highs 91 or more. Today the
high of 92 broke the old record of 90 set in 1981.

As of 240 PM: A weak frontal boundary remains essentially stationary
across the CWFA, dividing hot and very humid subtropical air
from notably drier continental air. This boundary can be seen on
satellite as the northern edge of a Cu field. Southerly flow is
expected to push the boundary north again overnight. Meanwhile, an
upper ridge is seen over the mid-eastern CONUS. A weak shortwave
trough is moving through the ridge, across the Gulf states,
and will move over the Carolinas Wednesday morning. Storms along
and south of the boundary will pose a threat of damaging wind,
mainly on account of SBCAPEs near 2000 J/kg and high DCAPEs well
over 1000 J/kg. Shear is relatively weak but may allow storms to
grow into clusters. SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk in their
Day 1 outlook to cover most of the Upstate.

Confidence in the overnight forecast is somewhat limited given
varying degrees of convection featured during the afternoon. It
appears some of the short range guidance, e.g. 4km NAM, depict
"worked-over" profiles by late evening that would not support
additional precip. However, many SREF members show a modest
amount of elevated instability persisting throughout the night,
and something like that would account for the lingering PoPs
suggested by a guidance consensus. That of course assumes some
source of lift. The incoming trough does not have the dynamics to
expect much intiation from it alone, but weak warm upglide could
also have an effect. I'm handling the situation by reflecting
a very slowly decaying PoP trend tonight. Robust thunderstorms
are not expected to last past the loss of the sfc instability,
however. Moist conditions and convective debris will keep temps
several degrees above normal.

The shortwave axis will be entering the CWFA from the west a little
after daybreak. Models generally key on this and rapidly develop
convection in the morning. The wave is trailed by a broad cold
frontal zone, most notable for enhancing low level convergence as it
moves thru the area during the day. CAPE values peaking below those
Tuesday given slightly cooler conditions. Prog soundings are not as
dry, and shear will remain rather weak, so heavy rain may end up
being our most significant threat given PWAT values remaining 1.9
to 2.0 inches over much of the area per NAM. Max temps will not be
as hot, but still 2-3 degrees above normal. Despite sfc dewpoints
expected to exceed those Tuesday, heat indices will be lower.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...the second half of the week looks
problematic in terms of coverage and strength of deep convection.
The period begins Wednesday evening with lingering showers/storms,
especially over the Piedmont zones. Most of the convection will do
the usual diurnal weakening and be gone by late evening. However,
the models continue to indicate the approach of a wave/vort lobe
from the lower OH valley region after 06Z Thursday. The question is
whether or not this feature will support/drive any thunderstorm
activity south/east of the Ohio River after dark. The model guidance
shows an unstable boundary layer overnight with substantial CAPE,
probably 1000 J/kg or so, across the area to the west of the NC
mountains, which would support keeping convection alive that would
be able to reach the NC mountains in the pre-dawn hours. For that
reason, a chance of precip was retained on the TN border overnight.
Thursday is more of a question, especially in light of the Day 3
slight risk across most of the forecast area. What is interesting
with this part of the forecast is that the operational NAM and GFS
fail to respond with much of any convection on Thursday. In that
regard, the Slight Risk appears to be based on the ingredients seen
in the model guidance, that being a surface boundary dropping down
across the OH valley and toward the Srn Appalachians Thursday
evening, substantial surface-based CAPE ahead of the boundary
(perhaps greater than 2000 J/kg), and what would also be substantial
deep layer shear brought on by a mid-level jetlet. If the
operational models are wrong with their failure to develop storms,
then we could have some kind of severe wind-producing MCS coming at
us from the Cumberland Plateau in the evening hours. An idea worth
letting simmer away on a back burner for now. Precip chances will be
kept modest for the time being for Thursday and Thursday night, and
temps will be seasonally warm. Friday looks a bit less busy and
naturally a bit more uncertain. An upper low dropping down across
the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic will help to bring a
surface boundary down across the region during the day. This will
probably take the form as more of a back-door cold front as it wraps
around the mountains. How far the front gets will determine the
extent of precip coverage and the high temps. For now, a chance of
precip is shown across mainly the NC part of the fcst area.  The
temp will be more tricky, perhaps limited to the mid 80s across the
NW Piedmont but still in the mid 90s in northeast GA ahead of the
southward moving front.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At 230 PM Tuesday: On Friday evening an upper trough will be along
the eastern seaboard, with an upper low moving reaching the NC
coast. The GFS closes off this low near the SC coast by Sunday
evening, while the ECMWF closes off a deeper low off the northeast
NC coast. The GFS low moves to western FL by Sunday evening, while
while the ECMWF low remains in the vicinity of the NC Outer Banks.
By Monday evening the weakening GFS low reaches the AL coast, while
hte stronger ECMWF low moves up the Gulf Stream east of NJ. By mid
week, the models solutions diverge, with the GFS showing a
reamplfied and retrogresses low over the eastern USA, and the ECMWF
showing zonal flow over the same area.

At the surface: On Friday evening high pressure will set up along
the east slopes of the southern Appalachians in the wake of a cold
front, and will linger into Sunday. By Monday a northward return
of the front will allow precipitation to spread inland towards the
mountains, and this pattern persists into Tuesday. Temperatures will
run slightly below normal until Tuesday, when the rise above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT: at 745 PM, KGSP and TCLT radars indicated a line of
thunderstorms developed along a series of outflow boundaries across
the upstate of SC. These thunderstorms will track north across the
KCLT region from 0z to 3z. The far western end of the line will
track near KAVL through 3z as well, with showers lingering well into
the night. Gusty south winds will be likely with the passage of
these storms. The storms should fade as they lift toward the I-40
corridor, mesoscale analysis indicates a sharp decrease in
instability along and north of a stationary front. Wet ground and
clearing debris clouds will increase the risk of fog developing late
tonight. Visibility could be limited to 3 to 5 SM between 09z to 12z
with fog. Passing h5 trof along with widespread instability should
produce similar to greater TSRA coverage tomorrow afternoon and
evening. Winds should remain from the SW during the daylight hours.

Outlook...Mostly VFR conditions are expected, except for possible
valley fog in the NC MTNS each morning. Coverage is expected to be
more isolated for Thursday and Friday in the wake of a departing
trough.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  90%     Med   79%     High  92%
KGSP       High 100%     High  89%     High  95%     High  85%
KAVL       High  99%     High  83%     High  94%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High  90%     High  95%     High 100%
KGMU       High  83%     High  88%     High  89%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High  94%     High  90%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...NED/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
322 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-068>072-
082-507>510-SCZ001>014-019-151930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
322 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME
OF THE STORMS WILL GROW LARGE ENOUGH TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-501>506-151930-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
322 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE CLOUD-
TO- GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
759 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

NCZ071-150030-
MECKLENBURG NC-
759 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MECKLENBURG COUNTY
UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 758 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES SOUTHEAST OF UPTOWN CHARLOTTE...OR NEAR SOUTHPARK MALL...MOVING
NORTH AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
UPTOWN CHARLOTTE...SOUTH CHARLOTTE...EAST CHARLOTTE...MATTHEWS...MINT
HILL...FREEDOM PARK...THE ARBORETUM...THE PLAZA...SOUTHPARK MALL AND
HIDDEN VALLEY.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3521 8061 3506 8073 3505 8075 3509 8086
      3529 8084
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 200DEG 10KT 3515 8079

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
801 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

NCZ051-052-059-150030-
HAYWOOD NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-SWAIN NC-
801 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...
NORTHEASTERN SWAIN AND WEST CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM
EDT...

AT 801 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARYVILLE TO 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BRYSON CITY TO NEAR SYLVA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SYLVA...WAYNESVILLE...CHEROKEE...MAGGIE VALLEY...DILLSBORO...SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-OCONALUFTEE...SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BALSAM MOUNTAIN...SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-NEWFOUND GAP.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3557 8371 3557 8363 3558 8360 3556 8358
      3556 8350 3561 8345 3562 8340 3566 8335
      3567 8333 3566 8330 3569 8326 3572 8325
      3570 8319 3551 8297 3534 8325 3547 8345
      3556 8372
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 226DEG 20KT 3560 8367 3551 8340 3540 8320

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
809 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHESNEE                 35.15N 81.86W
06/14/2016                   SPARTANBURG        SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY OFFICIAL REPORTED A SWATH OF TREES BLOWN DOWN FROM
            SPARTANBURG TO BOILING SPRINGS...TO CHESNEE.

&&

KRENTZ

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