Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

823 
WWUS52 KGSP 152102
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
502 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

NCC059-159-152112-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-160615T2145Z/
ROWAN NC-DAVIE NC-
502 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ROWAN AND SOUTHEASTERN DAVIE
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3568 8033 3550 8065 3551 8070 3560 8076
      3567 8077 3577 8074 3591 8049 3584 8043
      3583 8046 3584 8048 3583 8049 3581 8047
      3579 8048 3577 8045 3574 8046 3572 8042
      3572 8034 3571 8032
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 234DEG 16KT 3569 8061 

$$

RWH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
338 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions are expected through the end of the work
week with continued chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
A cold front will push across the region on Friday with an
abnormally dry and cool high pressure arriving this weekend. The
first half of next week will remain dry as high pressure dominates
through early Wednesday with the next chance for rainfall arriving
Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 PM: A weak low- to mid-level trough is present over
the region, with light southwesterly flow present near the
surface. The trough may have the effect of slightly enhancing lift
via convergence, but PoPs thru the rest of the day will be much
more dependent on convective trends. 1500-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE is
shown over the Piedmont per mesoanalysis. Cells initiated over the
Blue Ridge in late morning and have slowly spread out from there,
mostly to the east following the mean flow. This agrees with the
general expectation of the latest HRRR and HiRes WRF-Window runs,
which place most of their QPF over the NC Piedmont, and the Upstate
east of Greenville. Profiles are rather moist (evidenced by PWAT
values very close to 2 inches) and deep shear values are similar
to what they were Tuesday (15-20 kt). A couple of storms so far
have grown tall enough to possibly produce 35-45 mph wind gusts,
but rainfall rates have been the main concern. SPC just issued
a Mesoscale Discussion to highlight the potential for a few
wet downbursts, and expects that some multicell clusters could
develop. I would agree with that, though I personally think the
threat of heavy rain and potentially minor flooding from any such
clusters is of more interest than the wind. This particularly given
that the same mesoanalysis shows DCAPE under 700 J/kg over our area.

Convection should gradually wane tonight, though winds only slowly
begin to turn downslope as the aforementioned trough moves east,
and moisture remaining abundant. Lingering elevated instability may
be realized as MCVs from Ohio/Tenn valley convection drift toward
the Appalachians through early morning. PoPs will trend down slowly
as a result. Patchy fog is likely wherever a good soaking occurs
this afternoon/evening. Mins will be about or slightly warmer than
those Wed mrng.

For Thursday, winds will veer further to northwest/downslope,
and appreciably drier air will advect in above the surface. Model
QPF is generally nil for the daytime hours. The downsloping will
allow temps to warm back to values like we saw early in the week,
as high as the mid-90s. Dewpoints will mix out several degrees
lower than Wednesday's values on account of the dry air aloft, but
will still be typically June-like. NAM and GFS depict instability
developing in the afternoon; the NAM values are high enough that
updrafts would seem to be strong enough to easily overcome the
subsidence produced by downsloping. For this reason I have kept a
slight chance for thunder in the forecast. SPC has us in the Day 2
slight risk area, actually for the (questionable) potential of an
MCS impacting the CWFA Thu night, but there indeed would appear
to be some risk for damaging winds if soundings do destabilize
and dry as much as the NAM shows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday: The short term period begins Thursday
evening with a positively-tilted 500mb shortwave trough diving SE
into the middle Appalachians as the attendant cold front moves
across the Ohio Valley.  The cold front will move into the forecast
area early Friday morning and will slowly propagate through the SC
Upstate into early Friday afternoon.  As it approaches and moves
through the region late Thursday night into early Friday morning
there appears to be enough elevated instability to cause a few
showers and thunderstorms to develop in the NAM especially in the
mountains where the NWly flow will promote some upslope forcing.
However, the NAM continues to be an outlier amongst synoptic and CAM
guidance and downslope flow to the lee of the mountains should keep
frontal precip chances low.  Therefore, chance pops are maintained
near the TN border in anticipation of lingering convection and
isolated to widely scattered showers Thursday night into early
Friday.  We will continue to monitor the latest trends in the
guidance regardless.

Both the GFS and the NAM are introducing a large area of light
rainfall associated with the shortwave energy behind the front
during the afternoon, primarily focused in NC, and have obliged with
slight chance to chance pops.  However, as the shortwave is absorbed
into a longwave trough off the Atlantic coast late Friday, most of
SC and NE GA should stay dry through Friday as precip chances wane
across the entire area into early Saturday morning.

There is good agreement amongst the model guidance that the trough
axis will stay along or just off the Atlantic coast, promoting
stable, deep-layer northeasterly flow through the weekend. The
northeasterly flow will promote strong cold air advection whose
source will be a dry high pressure centered over southern Ontario
which slides down the East Coast during the weekend. The pattern
change will provide us with much cooler weather this weekend with
high temperatures running 5-8 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As if 230 PM EDT Wednesday: The extended period begins Saturday
evening with cool and dry surface high pressure centered over VA.
Aloft, the region is between a closed low off the Atlantic coast
with deep ridging setting up over the southern Rockies.  This
pattern will largely persist through Tuesday until a northern-stream
longwave trough approaches the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S.
Wednesday into Thursday.  An attendant surface cold front approaches
the OH Valley on Wednesday, increasing pops across the area and
reintroducing shower and thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon
and evening.  Temperatures will quickly rebound to near or
slightly-above normal Monday through Wednesday as heights begin to
build aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: SHRA/TSRA will propagate ewd off the Blue
Ridge this afternoon, with the best chances for impacts at KHKY
and KCLT. However a mentionable chance exists at all sites. A
small threat of strong wind gusts exists, but the more likely
impact would be very heavy rain producing IFR vsby. Tonight some
showers may linger as shortwave passes overhead, allowing any
remnant buoyancy to be realized within what will still be a very
moist environment. Veering winds to WSW should occur late in the
period, perhaps into the NW quadrant after daybreak if lee trough
does not develop as anticipated.

Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions are expected. Afternoon SHRA and
TSRA are expected to be more isolated in coverage for Thursday
and Friday in the wake of a departing trough. Dry high pressure
builds in for the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High  91%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  91%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  91%     High 100%     Med   65%     High  92%
KHKY       High  91%     High 100%     High  96%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  92%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...JMP
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...Wimberley

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-162015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
401 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL PRODUCE
CLOUD- TO- GROUND LIGHTNING... GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1204 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

NCZ053-064-065-151630-
BUNCOMBE NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-HENDERSON NC-
1204 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

...A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL BUNCOMBE AND NORTHWESTERN HENDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM
EDT...

AT 1203 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER 10
MILES NORTHEAST OF BREVARD...OR 5 MILES WEST OF MILLS RIVER...MOVING
EAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... HENDERSONVILLE...ARDEN...MILLS
RIVER...FLETCHER...ETOWAH...MOUNTAIN HOME... LAUREL PARK...ASHEVILLE
AIRPORT...SKYLAND AND MOUNT PISGAH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3553 8252 3526 8245 3527 8272 3541 8275
      3542 8275 3543 8276 3544 8276
TIME...MOT...LOC 1603Z 258DEG 5KT 3537 8266

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1226 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

NCZ509-510-151700-
EASTERN POLK NC-POLK MOUNTAINS NC-
1226 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT POLK COUNTY UNTIL 100 PM EDT...

AT 1226 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLUMBUS...TRYON...MILL SPRING...LAKE ADGER AND GREEN CREEK.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3540 8213 3534 8208 3533 8206 3520 8200
      3519 8206 3520 8225 3519 8230 3529 8234
      3531 8233 3531 8231 3537 8228 3540 8223
      3540 8218 3541 8217 3541 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 1626Z 248DEG 8KT 3528 8224

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
116 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

NCZ065-509-510-151745-
HENDERSON NC-EASTERN POLK NC-POLK MOUNTAINS NC-
116 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT WESTERN
POLK AND SOUTHEASTERN HENDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

AT 116 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HENDERSONVILLE...OR NEAR
SALUDA...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... COLUMBUS...FLAT
ROCK...TRYON...SALUDA...EAST FLAT ROCK...TUXEDO...DANA... LAKE ADGER
AND MILL SPRING.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3535 8214 3520 8221 3520 8229 3519 8232
      3519 8235 3518 8237 3519 8238 3520 8238
      3521 8239 3518 8243 3521 8248 3538 8240
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 288DEG 5KT 3527 8236

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
149 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

NCZ504-506-508-151815-
GREATER BURKE NC-GREATER RUTHERFORD NC-EASTERN MCDOWELL NC-
149 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN
BURKE...NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES
UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 149 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A THUNDERSTORM WITH
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL NEAR MARION...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORGANTON...MARION...GLEN ALPINE...SOUTH MOUNTAINS STATE PARK...LAKE
JAMES...LAKE JAMES STATE PARK...OAK HILL...NEBO...DYSARTSVILLE AND
GLENWOOD.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3585 8171 3559 8161 3559 8165 3557 8173
      3554 8200 3566 8205 3571 8203 3575 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 252DEG 17KT 3565 8195

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
203 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

NCZ501-502-151830-
GREATER CALDWELL NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS NC-
203 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CALDWELL COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM
EDT...

AT 203 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHWEST OF LENOIR...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF GAMEWELL...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LENOIR...SAWMILLS...GAMEWELL...HUDSON...CAJAH'S MOUNTAIN...CEDAR
ROCK... LAKE RHODHISS...UPTON...PATTERSON AND EDGEMONT.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3600 8136 3578 8147 3578 8156 3582 8159
      3582 8162 3585 8164 3588 8171 3592 8175
      3593 8178 3595 8178 3595 8179 3608 8173
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 292DEG 16KT 3597 8169

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
222 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

NCZ035-151845-
ALEXANDER NC-
222 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ALEXANDER COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM
EDT...

AT 221 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TAYLORSVILLE...STONY POINT...HIDDENITE...VASHTI...MILLERSVILLE AND
ELLENDALE.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 8100 3596 8100 3586 8104 3581 8114
      3583 8114 3582 8120 3582 8122 3596 8132
      3604 8119 3603 8117 3604 8113 3603 8107
      3605 8103
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 239DEG 18KT 3592 8119

07