Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
501 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop across the
forecast area today and tomorrow in advance of a cold front.
Following the frontal passage early Monday, dry high pressure will
overspread the region and persist into late week, resulting in
abnormally dry and stable weather through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 500 PM Saturday: Main changes for the late afternoon update
are to adjust PoPs for current radar trends and updates to CAM
guidance, especially to increase PoPs across the Upstate. CAM
guidance all in agreement that we should see a lull later this
evening, say 02-03z or so, after this first round of convection goes
through, with a slug of moisture moving into southwest zones around
midnight and spreading across the area overnight. HRRR is especially
aggressive with this, though confidence as we get later in the
overnight period decreases of course, so just trended PoPs into the
previous forecast toward daybreak. Will evaluate further through the
evening.

Otherwise, things get a bit more interesting into Sunday as the
primary h5 vortex responsible for the flooding over TX shifts east
while another sharp trof and associated surface cold front approach
the mid MS and OH river valleys.  The two primary upper features
look to phase into one nearly full latitude trof by Sunday morning
as the a fore mentioned cold front sweeps through the Bluegrass
region into the TN valley, eventually impacting the NC high terrain
by mid/late afternoon with the potent upper shortwave tied to it.
All in all, spc has placed the entire fcst area in the slight risk
for severe thunderstorms as enough instability and shear will be in
place for a more widespread convective event with damaging winds and
large hail being the primary threats.  Pops are respective of this
with likely levels spread over the entire fcst area through the
mid/late afternoon hours as the warm sector becomes active.
Temperatures on Sunday will be a bit cooler than today as the mid
levels moisten leading to greater sky coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Saturday, the latest short term guidance has continued
its trend of less progression with an initial short wave trough/
associated occluded front early in the period. In fact, the pattern
kind of comes to a screeching halt by Sunday night, as an upper low
develops between the Great Lakes and Hudsons Bay, and more short
wave energy digs southeast along the western periphery of this
vortex. Therefore, while guidance generally agrees in sweeping the
deeper moisture east of the area Sunday evening (bringing an end to
deep convective chances), there is a hint of a surface trough/
frontal remnant that lingers in the area through the period. In
fact, the latest guidance depicts a decent amount of instability
across the southern Piedmont zones Monday afternoon, albeit without
a great deal of qpf response. Pops have been nudged up into the
slight chance range for diurnal convection Monday PM.

The short term weather is further complicated by expected tropical
cyclone development across the Gulf of Mexico early in the week,
which the global models agree in tracking across the northern
peninsula/eastern panhandle of Florida. This could pass close enough
to the CWA to spread some moisture into the southern zones Mon/Mon
night. Low pops have therefore been continued through early Tue
across those areas. With the lower thickness values expected to
remain north of the area, Monday should be another rather hot day,
with temps in the mid-80 to near 90 expected in the Piedmont,
although the air mass should be quite a bit drier than what we are
currently experiencing. Otherwise, temps are expected to be fairly
close to climo through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 2 PM EDT Saturday, the medium range fcst picks up at 00z on
Wednesday with broad upper trofing over the eastern CONUS and steep
ridging over the west. The upper trof axis is expected to rotate
over the fcst area on Wednesday and lift offshore early Thursday.
The upper ridge will gradually slide farther east and begin to build
over the region by the end of the period early next weekend.

At the sfc, Canadian high pressure will be overspreading the region
by early Wednesday as what's left of the Gulf of Mexico tropical low
moves off the Carolina Coast. Over the next couple of days, the high
will slide southeast and settle over the fcst area. By late
Fri/early Sat, the long range models bring some sort of weak
backdoor cold front to our doorstep with reinforcing high pressure
behind the front. As for the sensible fcst, conditions should remain
dry with temps rebounding thru the period. By Friday, highs will
likely be at or above 90 degrees for most of the lower elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Updated the KCLT TAF for 21z to delay
TEMPO TSRA until 22z (previously 21z) and remove the prevailing TSRA
at 01z. Otherwise no significant changes. VFR through the vast
majority of the fcst cycle aside for any restrictions associated
with afternoon/evening tsra. TSRA chances will continue to increase
with heating this afternoon, likely aided by a weakening upper
ridge. Thus tafs carry tsra tempos through the late afternoon with
prevailing shra/tsra through early/mid evening. All weather is
removed before midnight leading to sct/bkn mid clouds for the
overnight hours.  Also included low stratus/fog once again at
KAVL/KAND given persistence of the patter and recent days
occurrence.  Low vfr cu will redevelop on Sunday as further improved
instability and synoptic forcing will lead to another active day.
Winds are expected to remain generally out of the south around 5-
8kts with some gusts possible adjacent to any tsra.

Outlook...A cold front will sweep across the western Carolinas on
Sunday...possibly becoming stationary east of the forecast area
during the early week. Another cold front, considerably drier, will
push across the region on Tuesday. In the wake of the cold front, a
Canadian air mass will settle over the CWA into next weekend.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  98%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Low   44%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  89%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High  98%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High  98%     High  92%     High  92%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/TDP
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG/TDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
635 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-051045-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
635 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING...BUT THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-051045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
635 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
GUSTY WINDS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING...BUT THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
613 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

NCZ056-069-070-042245-
CATAWBA NC-GASTON NC-LINCOLN NC-
613 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
CATAWBA...NORTHWESTERN GASTON AND LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM
EDT...

AT 613 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTH OF LINCOLNTON...OR NEAR HIGH SHOALS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHERRYVILLE...DALLAS...STANLEY...WESTPORT...H
IGH SHOALS...BOGER CITY...IRON STATION AND DENVER.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3543 8096 3542 8096 3526 8126 3540 8140
      3565 8111 3551 8096 3550 8096 3549 8095
      3547 8095 3546 8094 3545 8094
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 229DEG 14KT 3538 8127

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
630 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

NCZ035-036-056-057-042300-
ROWAN NC-IREDELL NC-CATAWBA NC-ALEXANDER NC-
630 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
ROWAN...CENTRAL CATAWBA...CENTRAL IREDELL AND SOUTHEASTERN ALEXANDER
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 630 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES NORTHEAST OF NEWTON...OR OVER CLAREMONT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STATESVILLE...NEWTON...CONOVER...TROUTMAN...STONY
POINT...CLAREMONT... CATAWBA...HARMONY...LOOKOUT SHOALS LAKE AND ST.
STEPHENS.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3592 8070 3585 8071 3585 8070 3586 8069
      3585 8067 3584 8067 3584 8065 3581 8062
      3559 8117 3574 8129 3604 8079
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 238DEG 26KT 3571 8116

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
631 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

SCZ014-042300-
CHESTER SC-
631 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CHESTER
COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 631 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHESTER...OR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF BLACKSTOCK...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... GREAT FALLS...FORT
LAWN...RICHBURG...FISHING CREEK RESERVOIR...CORNWELL AND BLACKSTOCK.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 8089 3463 8090 3455 8087 3454 8088
      3455 8097 3456 8114 3464 8119 3480 8088
      3475 8088 3470 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 246DEG 18KT 3459 8107

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
701 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

SCZ014-042330-
CHESTER SC-
701 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CHESTER
COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

AT 700 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CHESTER...OR NEAR CHESTER STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHESTER...RICHBURG...LOWRYS...CHESTER STATE PARK...CORNWELL AND
BLACKSTOCK.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3456 8123 3466 8136 3482 8124 3482 8114
      3468 8096 3456 8117
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 223DEG 8KT 3466 8123

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
710 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

SCZ012-013-042345-
UNION SC-LAURENS SC-
710 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL LAURENS
AND CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 710 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES SOUTHWEST OF UNION...OR 7 MILES EAST OF CLINTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
UNION...MONARCH MILL...BUFFALO...ROSE HILL STATE PARK...JONESVILLE...
CLINTON...SANTUC...CROSS KEYS AND SEDALIA.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3450 8188 3484 8167 3474 8149 3472 8148
      3472 8145 3468 8145 3465 8144 3450 8159
      3453 8162 3453 8164 3452 8165 3446 8170
      3445 8172 3442 8174
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 213DEG 16KT 3452 8175

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
713 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

NCZ036-037-042345-
DAVIE NC-IREDELL NC-
713 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN IREDELL
AND NORTHWESTERN DAVIE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

AT 713 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTH OF STATESVILLE...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOVE VALLEY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... HARMONY...LOVE VALLEY...UNION
GROVE...TURNERSBURG...SHEFFIELD AND OLIN.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3605 8057 3582 8086 3593 8102 3597 8100
      3606 8093
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 220DEG 24KT 3594 8089

07