Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
251 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of showers and thunderstorms will develop across the
forecast area today and tomorrow in advance of a cold front.
Following the frontal passage early Monday, dry high pressure will
overspread the region and persist into late week, resulting in
abnormally dry and stable weather through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday:  Scattered convection continues to
highlight the wx this afternoon amongst a relatively unstable
airmass where latest spc mesoanalysis favors upwards of 1.5k-2.5k
j/kg sbcape regionwide, with the highest amounts further east where
differential heating is maximized.  Thus, continued to favor CAM
guidance trends for pops this afternoon/evening which yields likely
levels over much of the upper Savannah River valley as well as all
of the western NC high terrain.  Pops do lower a bit further east
despite the improved heating as the departing ridge axis could still
delay/deter convection.  Soundings favor an environment for deeper
convection than that of days past therefore a few strong/severe
thunderstorms are definately possible with large hail and damaging
winds being the primary concern.  Guidance favor prolonged activity
into the evening hours where pops remain somewhat elevated, before
falling gradually from the east through the overnight.

Things get a bit more interesting into Sunday as the primary h5
vortex responsible for the flooding over TX shifts east while
another sharp trof and associated surface cold front approach the
mid MS and OH river valleys.  The two primary upper features look to
phase into one nearly full latitude trof by Sunday morning as the a
fore mentioned cold front sweeps through the Bluegrass region into
the TN valley, eventually impacting the NC high terrain by mid/late
afternoon with the potent upper shortwave tied to it.  All in all,
spc has placed the entire fcst area in the slight risk for severe
thunderstorms as enough instability and shear will be in place for a
more widespread convective event with damaging winds and large hail
being the primary threats.  Pops are respective of this with likely
levels spread over the entire fcst area through the mid/late
afternoon hours as the warm sector becomes active.  Temperatures on
Sunday will be a bit cooler than today as the mid levels moisten
leading to greater sky coverage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Saturday, the latest short term guidance has continued
its trend of less progression with an initial short wave trough/
associated occluded front early in the period. In fact, the pattern
kind of comes to a screeching halt by Sunday night, as an upper low
develops between the Great Lakes and Hudsons Bay, and more short
wave energy digs southeast along the western periphery of this
vortex. Therefore, while guidance generally agrees in sweeping the
deeper moisture east of the area Sunday evening (bringing an end to
deep convective chances), there is a hint of a surface trough/
frontal remnant that lingers in the area through the period. In
fact, the latest guidance depicts a decent amount of instability
across the southern Piedmont zones Monday afternoon, albeit without
a great deal of qpf response. Pops have been nudged up into the
slight chance range for diurnal convection Monday PM.

The short term weather is further complicated by expected tropical
cyclone development across the Gulf of Mexico early in the week,
which the global models agree in tracking across the northern
peninsula/eastern panhandle of Florida. This could pass close enough
to the CWA to spread some moisture into the southern zones Mon/Mon
night. Low pops have therefore been continued through early Tue
across those areas. With the lower thickness values expected to
remain north of the area, Monday should be another rather hot day,
with temps in the mid-80 to near 90 expected in the Piedmont,
although the air mass should be quite a bit drier than what we are
currently experiencing. Otherwise, temps are expected to be fairly
close to climo through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 2 PM EDT Saturday, the medium range fcst picks up at 00z on
Wednesday with broad upper trofing over the eastern CONUS and steep
ridging over the west. The upper trof axis is expected to rotate
over the fcst area on Wednesday and lift offshore early Thursday.
The upper ridge will gradually slide farther east and begin to build
over the region by the end of the period early next weekend.

At the sfc, Canadian high pressure will be overspreading the region
by early Wednesday as what's left of the Gulf of Mexico tropical low
moves off the Carolina Coast. Over the next couple of days, the high
will slide southeast and settle over the fcst area. By late
Fri/early Sat, the long range models bring some sort of weak
backdoor cold front to our doorstep with reinforcing high pressure
behind the front. As for the sensible fcst, conditions should remain
dry with temps rebounding thru the period. By Friday, highs will
likely be at or above 90 degrees for most of the lower elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Vfr through the vast majority of the fcst
cycle aside for any restrictions associated with afternoon/evening
tsra.  Tsra chances will continue to increase with heating this
afternoon, likely aided by a weakening upper ridge.  Thus tafs carry
tsra tempos through the late afternoon with prevailing shra/tsra
through early/mid evening.  All weather is removed before midnight
leading to sct/bkn mid clouds for the overnight hours.  Also
included low stratus/fog once again at KAVL/KAND given persistence
of the patter and recent days occurrence.  Low vfr cu will redevelop
on Sunday as further improved instability and synoptic forcing will
lead to another active day.  Winds are expected to remain generally
out of the south around 5-8kts with some gusts possible adjacent to
any tsra.

Outlook...A cold front will sweep across the western Carolinas on
Sunday...possibly becoming stationary east of the forecast area
during the early week. Another cold front, considerably drier, will
push across the region on Tuesday. In the wake of the cold front, a
Canadian air mass will settle over the CWA into next weekend.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  99%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Med   63%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  96%     High  94%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High  99%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  96%     High  98%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the schedule TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CDG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
635 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-051045-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
635 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
GUSTY WINDS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING...BUT THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ001>014-019-051045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
635 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
GUSTY WINDS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING...BUT THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
144 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

SCZ010-041815-
ANDERSON SC-
144 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
ANDERSON COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 143 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTH OF HARTWELL...OR NEAR REED CREEK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE HARTWELL...NORTHLAKE...SANDY SPRINGS AND TOWNVILLE.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LAKE HARTWELL IS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
MOVE TO SHORE IMMEDIATELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3446 8286 3446 8287 3447 8287 3448 8288
      3449 8291 3448 8292 3449 8294 3460 8287
      3464 8283 3462 8263 3444 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 212DEG 16KT 3446 8290

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
146 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

GAZ017-018-041815-
STEPHENS GA-HABERSHAM GA-
146 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN STEPHENS AND
SOUTHEASTERN HABERSHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 145 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLARKESVILLE...OR NEAR MOUNT AIRY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TOCCOA...CORNELIA...MOUNT AIRY...BOYDVILLE AND HOLLYWOOD.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3471 8339 3457 8320 3447 8342 3448 8347
      3449 8351 3451 8354
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 224DEG 20KT 3452 8345

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

NCZ051-052-059-041830-
HAYWOOD NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-SWAIN NC-
154 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
JACKSON...EAST CENTRAL SWAIN AND WEST CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL
230 PM EDT...

AT 152 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHWEST OF SYLVA...OR NEAR SMOKY MOUNTAINS-OCONALUFTEE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...SMOKY MOUNTAINS-OCONALUFTEE...
SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BALSAM MOUNTAIN...MAGGIE VALLEY...CHEROKEE AND SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-CATALOOCHEE.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3547 8326 3553 8335 3568 8318 3554 8306
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 227DEG 17KT 3550 8329

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

SCZ011-019-041945-
ABBEVILLE SC-GREENWOOD SC-
310 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
GREENWOOD AND NORTHEASTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

AT 310 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTHEAST OF ABBEVILLE...OR 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HODGES...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... ABBEVILLE...GREENWOOD...WARE
SHOALS...DONALDS...COKESBURY...HODGES...SHOALS JUNCTION...LAKE
GREENWOOD AND PROMISED LAND.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3418 8241 3448 8232 3447 8231 3445 8228
      3440 8224 3440 8223 3438 8221 3437 8218
      3433 8217 3433 8215 3432 8213 3431 8212
      3431 8211 3430 8209 3411 8221
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 202DEG 26KT 3423 8228

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
326 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

NCZ033-050-042000-
AVERY NC-MITCHELL NC-
326 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN MITCHELL AND
AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 326 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTH OF SPRUCE PINE...OR NEAR BAKERSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... SPRUCE PINE...NEWLAND...BANNER
ELK...ELK PARK...BAKERSVILLE...BEECH MOUNTAIN IN AVERY
COUNTY...CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...SEVEN DEVILS AND B.R. PARKWAY-
LINVILLE FALLS TO GRANDFATHER.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 8190 3623 8191 3621 8190 3619 8188
      3619 8186 3616 8183 3611 8181 3609 8176
      3608 8176 3589 8209 3598 8220 3601 8220
      3602 8224 3612 8214 3611 8213 3610 8208
      3613 8205 3612 8203 3628 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 227DEG 23KT 3601 8210

07

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