Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

May 2, 2016Buncombe County, McDowell County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 2, 2016, 2:25 PM EDT for Buncombe County, McDowell County, North Carolina. It was in force for 50 min. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
May 2, 2016, 2:25 PM EDT (18:25 UTC)
Expired
May 2, 2016, 3:15 PM EDT
In force
50 min
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
1.0 in
Wind
60.0 mph

Counties Buncombe County, NC, McDowell County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
May 2, 2:51 PM EDTHAIL 1.752 S Old Fort, NC
May 2, 3:00 PM EDTHAIL 15 S Old Fort, NCQUARTER SIZE HAIL DAMAGING TREE BRANCHES.
May 2, 3:05 PM EDTHAIL 0.883 Sse Old Fort, NC
May 2, 3:15 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG1 Ssw Glenwood, NCTREES DOWN ON ASHWORTH AND GOOSE CREEK RD.
May 2, 3:21 PM EDTHAIL 14 S Marion, NCUP TO 1 INCH HAIL SOUTH OF MARION, NC.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 3 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 26 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
May 2, 2:17 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 6.4 hours before the alert went out and 214 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2016-05-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 670 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2016-05-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 62 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
670 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-73 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
787 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
62 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
45 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

108 
WUUS52 KGSP 021825
SVRGSP
NCC021-111-021915-
/O.NEW.KGSP.SV.W.0030.160502T1825Z-160502T1915Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
225 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
  SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 225 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES EAST OF
  DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...OR NEAR BLACK MOUNTAIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
  MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MARION...BLACK MOUNTAIN...SWANNANOA...OLD FORT...MONTREAT...SUGAR HILL...
  FERO...PLEASANT GARDENS...GLENWOOD AND WOODLAWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN IN THE WARNED
AREA. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...
2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING
HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3582 8208 3558 8191 3552 8216 3553 8217
      3552 8223 3550 8223 3549 8231 3550 8233
      3550 8234 3561 8242 3570 8227 3570 8226
      3573 8219 3576 8217
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 239DEG 14KT 3557 8229 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KRENTZ
2 follow-up statements
781 
WWUS52 KGSP 021846
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
246 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

NCC021-021856-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-160502T1915Z/
BUNCOMBE NC-
246 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3582 8208 3558 8191 3552 8216 3555 8220
      3556 8225 3559 8229 3560 8229 3562 8227
      3565 8229 3567 8228 3569 8229 3573 8219
      3576 8217
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 239DEG 14KT 3561 8220 

$$

NCC111-021915-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-160502T1915Z/
MCDOWELL NC-
246 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY...

AT 246 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MARION...OR NEAR OLD FORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARION...OLD FORT...SUGAR HILL...FERO...GLENWOOD...PLEASANT GARDENS...
MONTREAT AND WOODLAWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN IN THE WARNED AREA.
HAIL CAN CAUSE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO VEHICLES. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT AND INTENSE LIGHTNING. TURN OFF
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. DO NOT USE CORDED TELEPHONES. DO NOT TAKE A
BATH OR SHOWER.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...
2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING
HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3582 8208 3558 8191 3552 8216 3555 8220
      3556 8225 3559 8229 3560 8229 3562 8227
      3565 8229 3567 8228 3569 8229 3573 8219
      3576 8217
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 239DEG 14KT 3561 8220 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

TDP
845 
WWUS52 KGSP 021853
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
253 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

NCC111-021915-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-160502T1915Z/
MCDOWELL NC-
253 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY...

AT 253 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MARION...OR NEAR OLD FORT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARION...OLD FORT...SUGAR HILL...FERO...GLENWOOD...PLEASANT GARDENS...
MONTREAT AND WOODLAWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL CAN CAUSE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO VEHICLES.
STRONG WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT AND INTENSE LIGHTNING. TURN OFF
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. DO NOT USE CORDED TELEPHONES. DO NOT TAKE A
BATH OR SHOWER.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...
2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING
HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE
SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3582 8208 3558 8191 3552 8216 3555 8220
      3556 8224 3559 8229 3560 8229 3562 8227
      3565 8229 3567 8228 3569 8229 3573 8219
      3576 8217
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 252DEG 21KT 3560 8214 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

TDP

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 2, 2:23 PM EDT, 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 2, 2:23 PM EDT, 2 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
223 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND BRING A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS FROM CANADA
THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM...AS EXPECTED...THE REGION IS SEEING CONVECTION
POPPING UP ON RADAR IMAGERY...AS SBCAPE HAS INCREASED TO 1500-2500
J/KG AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS HAVE BEEN MADE. FORCING IS STILL SUBTLE
OVERALL...BUT WILL INCREASE AS THE AFTN AND EVENING PROGRESSES.
THE RAP SHOWS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 20-30 KTS...WITH 30-40 KTS
ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. IN THAT AREA...THE SHEAR AND INSTBY WILL
COMBINE FOR A BETTER SEVERE STORM THREAT...WITH SUPERCELL-LIKE
STORMS POSSIBLE. SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
FROM BUNCOMBE COUNTY NORTH AND EAST UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING. TO
THE SOUTH...GIVEN THE STRONG INSTBY...EXPECT AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AS WELL.

THIS EVENING...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO THE NC MTNS FROM THE WEST...WHILE AN AREA OF DECENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL SET UP WITHIN A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET
STREAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LINGERING ELCAPE OF 800-1500 J/KG
WITH IMPROVING SHEAR. CAMS AREA ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MAXIMUM
OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING. SO POPS ARE MAXIMIZED IN THE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE FROM 0-6Z...THEN START TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THRU DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

TUESDAY...THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL SHIFT EAST...BUT
PERIODS OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DPVA WILL CONTINUE AS A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. A SFC
COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE MORNING...AND
LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-85. BULK SHEAR LOOKS
BETTER THAN MONDAY...BUT THE BETTER CAPE WILL BE TO THE EAST AS DRY
AIR STARTS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST. A DAY 2 MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IS
JUST TO OUR EAST. TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHORT RANGE PART OF THE
FORECAST HOLDS A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO OUR
RECENT ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME. ON TUESDAY...A SURFACE WAVE SHOULD
MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WHICH COMBINED
WITH A DIGGING UPPER TROF SHOULD HELP TO SLOWLY PUSH THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. UPPER FORCING WILL BE WEAK
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY COMES AROUND TO SOMETHING MORE
WESTERLY...WHICH DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
COVERAGE. WE MAY BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED PRECIP COVERAGE BUT
WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY...PRECIP
PROB DIMINISHES AND MOVES EASTWARD WITH TIME. THE FCST REFLECTS THIS
DOWNWARD TREND...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE TO OUR EAST. IN SPITE OF THE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH...THIS MID/UPPER SYSTEM HAS LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE...THUS PRECIP CHANCES WERE CUT BACK IN MOST
PLACES. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME LINGERING CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN ZONES
IN THE EVENING...BUT THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A SMALL CHANCE ONLY
NEAR THE TN BORDER EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
MODELS SUGGEST A RELATIVE LULL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT WAVE
AND THE ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE DROPPING DOWN AROUND THE UPPER LOW
FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY...ACCOUNTING
FOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES NEAR THE TN BORDER. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD BREAK CONTAINMENT AND MOVE OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT IN
THE EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN VORT CENTER. IN ITS
WAKE...PRECIP CHANCES TAPER BACK TO THE NW FLOW UPSLOPE AREAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
PASSES...WITH A COOL-DOWN BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INITIAL
WAVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM MONDAY...THE MAIN STORY FOR THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK
WILL BE THE BIG COOL-DOWN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW
ROLLS DOWN FROM THE GT LAKES AND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE
MODELS HAVE A COOLER TREND FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY SO ABOUT A
CATEGORY WAS CUT OFF...WHICH WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO SOMETHING ON
THE ORDER OF TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD EXPAND
OUTWARD FROM THE TN BORDER DURING THE DAY WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUPPORTING SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...PERHAPS LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE TN BORDER RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
THE COLDEST AIR AT MID LEVELS DRIFTING OVERHEAD EARLY THURSDAY...
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6K FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTERN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE EAST
COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THAT SHOULD SPELL DRY WEATHER
WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY RETURNING TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP RAPIDLY THIS
AFTN...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN. GIVEN
THE SHOTGUN APPEARANCE ON RADAR...TIMING WHEN CELLS WILL IMPACT
STILL TOO UNCERTAIN...SO WILL GO WITH FOUR HOUR TEMPO FROM 18-22Z.
THE INSTBY IS FAIRLY ROBUST...SO GUSTY WINDS AND/OR HAIL THREAT WILL
EXIST WITH THE AFTN ACTIVITY. LATER THIS EVENING...STORMS FROM THE
WEST ARE EXPECT TO CROSS THE AREA...AS MOISTURE AND FORCING SHOULD
SUPPORT CONVECTION WELL PASSED SUNSET. WILL CONTINUE THE PREVAILING
TSRA WITH LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF IN THE 6-9Z TIME FRAME. LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT LATE
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SW DIRECTION THRU THE
PERIOD...WITH A FEW LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN...BUT MAINLY
GUSTS WILL BE WITH CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR TO KCLT ABOVE. HAVE VCTS AND/OR TEMPO FOR TSRA
THIS AFTN...AS RADAR ECHOES ARE BLOSSOMING QUICKLY. MORE STORMS WILL
ENTER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING...WITH MOISTURE AND
FORCING SUPPORTING CONVECTION WELL PAST SUNSET. PREVAILING TSRA AND
PROB30 FOR TS THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WINDS WILL FAVOR A S TO
SW DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD...EXCEPT SWITCHING TO NW AROUND 6Z AT
KAVL AS A FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
GET HUNG UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE THRU 18Z TUESDAY. AS FOR FOG AND/OR
STRATUS...GUIDANCE IS MIXED...BUT I EXPECT THAT IF WE GET WIDESPREAD
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND SOME CLEARING OF MID CLOUDS AND PRECIP ENDS
BEFORE DAYBREAK...MAY SEE MORE IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS. WILL GO
WITH MVFR FOR NOW. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...AFTN SHRA/TSRA EXPECT AGAIN TUESDAY...BUT MOSTLY EAST OF
THE MTNS. DRY AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT THRU
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL SWING THRU THE AREA WED NIGHT
THRU THU...AND WILL BRING SHRA AND TSRA MAINLY TO THE MTNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH  98%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  80%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     MED   71%     HIGH  83%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  80%     MED   75%     HIGH  81%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  91%     HIGH  85%     HIGH  80%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH  89%     MED   70%     HIGH  84%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH  87%     MED   62%     HIGH  86%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...ARK
Hazardous weather outlook, May 2, 5:13 AM EDT, 9 hours 12 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
513 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-058-059-062-063-SCZ001-002-004-005-
010-011-019-030915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-SWAIN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
GREENWOOD-
513 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN
TODAY...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ033-035>037-048>050-052-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510-
SCZ003-006>009-012>014-030915-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-LAURENS-CHESTER-
513 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW POWERFUL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER IN THE FORM OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
FLOODING IF IT OCCURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CHARLOTTE
METRO AREA WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS.
MOST OF THE STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PM

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 2, 1:29 PM EDT, 56 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
129 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

NCZ071-082-021800-
UNION NC-MECKLENBURG NC-
129 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MECKLENBURG AND NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

AT 128 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES WEST OF MONROE...OR NEAR WEDDINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONROE...INDIAN TRAIL...WEDDINGTON...STALLINGS...WESLEY CHAPEL...LAKE
PARK...HEMBY BRIDGE...MARVIN...MATTHEWS AND WAXHAW.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3492 8077 3502 8085 3519 8061 3502 8047
TIME...MOT...LOC 1728Z 240DEG 17KT 3501 8074

KRENTZ
Special weather statement, May 2, 1:58 PM EDT, 27 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
158 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

SCZ009-014-021830-
CHESTER SC-YORK SC-
158 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN YORK
AND NORTH CENTRAL CHESTER COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 157 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 5
MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROCK HILL...OR OVER LESSLIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
55 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCK HILL...LESSLIE...CATAWBA...FORT MILL AND EDGEMOOR.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3490 8088 3487 8088 3486 8087 3484 8087
      3483 8090 3481 8089 3473 8110 3485 8120
      3501 8091 3499 8089 3497 8089 3496 8087
      3492 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 240DEG 49KT 3488 8095

KRENTZ
Special weather statement, May 2, 2:12 PM EDT, 13 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
212 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

NCZ082-021900-
UNION NC-
212 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN UNION
COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 212 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES NORTHWEST OF MONROE...OR NEAR LAKE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONROE...INDIAN TRAIL...STALLINGS...UNIONVILLE...LAKE PARK...HEMBY BRIDGE...
FAIRVIEW IN UNION COUNTY...WESLEY CHAPEL...MATTHEWS AND NEW SALEM.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3508 8029 3493 8061 3508 8072 3521 8055
      3518 8049 3518 8048 3517 8047 3516 8044
      3517 8042 3516 8041 3518 8037 3517 8036
      3520 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 235DEG 28KT 3505 8059

KRENTZ
Special weather statement, May 2, 2:22 PM EDT, 3 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
222 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

NCZ053-505-506-021900-
BUNCOMBE NC-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS NC-EASTERN MCDOWELL NC-
222 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
BUNCOMBE AND SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 221 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES WEST OF MARION...OR 4 MILES EAST OF BLACK MOUNTAIN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARION...BLACK MOUNTAIN...OLD FORT...B.R. PARKWAY-CRAGGY TO LITTLE
SWITZERLAND...SWANNANOA...MONTREAT...PLEASANT GARDENS...GLENWOOD AND
SUGAR HILL.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

LAT...LON 3561 8198 3550 8231 3563 8239 3571 8228
      3570 8226 3571 8224 3573 8219 3578 8216
      3579 8216 3581 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 235DEG 28KT 3560 8225

KRENTZ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 1, 8:27 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCabarrus33 min
May 1, 8:31 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPMacon29 min
May 1, 9:22 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningGSPMecklenburg6 hr
May 1, 9:45 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPGaston30 min
May 1, 11:19 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPDavie26 min
May 2, 12:32 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPMecklenburg43 min
May 2, 1:19 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPUnion56 min
May 2, 1:29 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPUnion31 min
May 2, 2:12 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPUnion48 min
May 2, 2:22 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPMcDowell38 min
May 2, 2:37 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAvery23 min
May 2, 2:39 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPCabarrus51 min
May 2, 2:59 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPMacon31 min
May 2, 3:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPBurke, McDowell, Rutherford49 min
May 2, 3:13 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPHenderson32 min
May 2, 3:16 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAvery29 min
May 2, 3:33 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCabarrus, Mecklenburg, Rowan42 min
May 2, 3:37 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPCabarrus, Iredell, Mecklenburg, Rowan38 min
May 2, 3:45 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPSwain30 min
May 2, 3:46 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPAvery14 min
May 2, 3:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPUnion39 min
May 2, 3:57 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPBurke33 min
May 2, 4:23 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPDavie37 min
May 2, 4:26 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPUnion34 min
May 2, 4:40 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCabarrus35 min
May 2, 4:49 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPIredell26 min
May 2, 5:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPAlexander, Iredell47 min
May 2, 5:30 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPGaston30 min
May 2, 5:34 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCleveland26 min
May 2, 5:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPCleveland, Gaston, Lincoln, Mecklenburg39 min
May 2, 5:50 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCleveland25 min
May 2, 5:58 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPIredell32 min
May 2, 6:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPDavie, Iredell, Rowan49 min
May 2, 6:20 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPLincoln25 min
May 2, 6:35 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPMecklenburg3 hr
May 2, 6:40 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPMadison50 min
May 2, 6:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPMadison43 min
May 2, 6:48 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPLincoln42 min
May 2, 7:02 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPMitchell, Yancey43 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2016Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.