Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

204 
WWUS52 KGSP 141900
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

NCC115-141909-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0203.000000T0000Z-160814T1930Z/
MADISON NC-
300 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND HAS EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3603 8259 3600 8261 3599 8260 3597 8261
      3596 8260 3582 8272 3582 8279 3595 8287
      3595 8285 3592 8282 3593 8280 3597 8278
      3599 8279 3600 8278 3606 8263
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 186DEG 9KT 3596 8275 

$$

ARK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
210 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Western Atlantic will continue to be the
main feature impacting our weather early this week.  Warm and humid
weather will continue. A cold front will slip southeast through
the Ohio Valley in the first half of the week and approach the
southern Appalachians by mid to late week as it dissipates.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 205 PM: Latest satellite images indicated thickening cloud
streets across the Piedmont, with a few patches of sunny conditions
across the NC foothills. Convection across the mtn ridges will
likely continue into this evening, storm motions from SW around 10
mph. A plume deep moisture will approach the Piedmont from the
midlands late this afternoon and evening. The western boundary of
the moisture should serve as a weak focus for deep convection. The
combination of CAPE between 3000-4000 J/kg and the approach of the
moisture discontinuity should result in pockets of sct coverage
across the Piedmont. DCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg should yield some
nicely defined outflow boundaries and gusty winds. Convection should
largely fade within 1-2 hours following sunset. NAM sfc condensation
pressure deficits indicate that light fog will be possible across
the mtns and foothills during the predawn hours.

As of 1155 AM: TCU and a few SHRAs have developed across the western
NC mtns this morning. Only a few patches of CU have developed east
of I-85, but cloud cover should increase sharply over the next hour.
Latest W/V loop indicates that the western edge of a plume of
moisture has reached the midland of SC, associated with a
disturbance in the mid levels over southern FL. This feature should
serve as a weak focus for deeper convection this afternoon. HRRR has
indicated too much coverage recently, but the solution does indicate
that SHRA and TSRA coverage should result from the advancing
moisture from the midlands and the coastal plain. I will update the
forecast to adjust timing in sky and PoPs. Temperatures will be
aligned with latest observations.

As of 950 AM: Latest visible satellite image and view out the window
indicated that CU has not started to develop across the foothills
and Piedmont, the region is sunny. An area of ridgetop CU was
developing across the extreme southern NC Blue Ridge. SPC mesoscale
analysis indicated that most the region was covered by 50 to 100
J/kg of CIN. Given the latest observations and model guidance, it
appears that convection will begin around 60-90 minutes later than
yesterday. I will update the sky and PoP grids to reflect the latest
thinking. Temperatures and dewpoints appear in good shape.

As of 630 AM Sunday: The synoptic pattern has changed little from
Saturday, with sfc-upper Bermuda High east of the region. The
NAM/GFS develop abundant instability today, with even the GFS
depicting about 2000 J/kg over the ern third of the CWFA. WRF
family models generally depict scattered cells forming over the
mountains at midday and in the SC Piedmont a little later. Including
recent HRRR runs, these WRFs seem to be trending toward greater
coverage. Thus, I increased PoPs a bit with this update.

The NAM and GFS feature marked differences in PWAT values, the NAM
being two or three tenths higher. Based on 14/00z GSO RAOB, GFS
appears more likely to verify. Nonetheless the atmosphere will be
seasonably moist, and with very short MBE vectors locally heavy rain
is a reasonable expectation. GFS DCAPE values do exceed 1000 J/kg,
so wet microbursts may result from stronger TSRA. Max temps will
edge slightly higher, topping out a category or two above normal.

Tonight most likely will be settled once the diurnal activity
dissipates. A weak vort max does round the SW side of the Atlantic
high, and this moves up thru GA overnight. That may act to enhance
cloud cover if not produce a few showers, but with the placement
of the feature (and its ability to produce sensible wx) uncertain,
I will not take it into account at this time. Min temps once again
will be very warm, around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Sunday, there are no surprises in the latest model
guidance. The pattern will remain more or less stagnant through the
period, with the subtropical ridge/Bermuda high remaining the
dominant synoptic scale feature impacting the southeast Atlantic
Coastal states. Resultant southerly flow will maintain plenty of low
level moisture across the area through the period. And while
mid-level temps will remain warm, at least moderate levels if
instability are anticipated Monday and Tuesday afternoons. What we
will continue to lack is a decent trigger outside of the mtns, so
for at least Monday, the coverage will be limited east of the Blue
Ridge. The new model runs keep the deep moisture plume and the
mid-level forcing well to the west on Tuesday, so precip chances
inch upward by maybe ten percent compared to Monday. Temps will
continue to run above normal, especially the min temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Sunday...The medium range period begins Wed night
with a plume of moisture stretched from Texas to the mid Atlantic
along a dissipating frontal boundary. A rather shallow 500mb trough
will be crossing the Great Lakes. This trough will pass to the north
of the Carolinas on Thursday helping to enhance convective coverage
ahead of its axis. The GFS has PW values around 2.1 in the CLT area
late Thursday. Our area will come under slight upper ridging Friday
and Saturday between upper troughs. This next trough will be deeper
and push a somewhat stronger cold front toward our region. After a
bit less convective coverage Fri and Sat...more widespread coverage
will occur on Sunday ahead of the stronger cold front with its
supporting stronger upper trough. At 00Z Monday the 500mb trough
axis should be roughly across the Mississippi River up to the Great
Lakes and the front crossing east central TN. After PW values drop
to 1.5 to 1.7 Friday they return to near 2.0 late Saturday then
lower on Sunday. The GFS and ECMWF are agreeing very well on the
timing and placement of the approaching trough.

Max temps near normal Thurs...Fri and Saturday then starting to
lower Sunday only slightly. Min temps above normal by around a
category.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Latest satellite images indicated thickening
cloud streets across the Piedmont, with a few patches of sunny
conditions across the NC foothills. Convection across the mtn ridges
will likely continue into this evening, storm motions from SW around
10 mph. I will include a VCSH or VCTS for all TAF sites, saving KAND
for better appearance in CU. A plume deep moisture will approach the
Piedmont from the midlands late this afternoon and evening. The
western boundary of the moisture should serve as a weak focus for
deep convection. The combination of CAPE between 3000-4000 J/kg and
the approach of the moisture discontinuity should result in pockets
of sct coverage across the Piedmont. I will highlight the period of
20z-23z with a TEMPO for TSRA. DCAPE greater than 1000 J/kg should
yield some nicely defined outflow boundaries and gusty winds.
Convection should largely fade within 1-2 hours following sunset.
NAM sfc condensation pressure deficits indicate that light fog will
be possible across the mtns and foothills during the predawn hours.
I will highlight the fog potential with a sunrise TEMPO across the
western Carolinas, KCLT appears a little too dry. Early to mid
morning CU and SW winds are forecast to develop Monday morning.

Outlook: More typical mid-August diurnal convection coverage is
expected most of the coming week, meaning scattered in the mountains
and generally isolated across the Piedmont. Morning fog/stratus
will be possible each day in the NC mountain valleys, and possibly
in locations that receive soaking rains the previous aftn/evening.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  97%     High  97%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Med   77%     High  91%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  88%     High  94%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  91%     High  94%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...NED/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
601 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-151015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
601 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...BUT ISOLATED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS. THE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

NCZ503-505-141830-
BURKE MOUNTAINS NC-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS NC-
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL BURKE AND CENTRAL
MCDOWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 200 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES NORTH OF MARION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... B.R. PARKWAY-LITTLE SWITZERLAND
TO LINVILLE...NORTH COVE...ASHFORD AND WOODLAWN.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3585 8183 3570 8206 3574 8213 3588 8202
      3587 8200 3589 8198 3591 8198
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 222DEG 17KT 3578 8205

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

NCZ048-141830-
MADISON NC-
206 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY
UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 206 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES NORTH OF MARSHALL...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOT SPRINGS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALLENSTAND.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3606 8262 3605 8262 3603 8259 3602 8261
      3599 8261 3599 8260 3597 8261 3596 8259
      3591 8271 3598 8277 3601 8275 3605 8267
      3606 8263
TIME...MOT...LOC 1806Z 222DEG 10KT 3598 8267

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
211 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

NCZ048-141845-
MADISON NC-
211 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY UNTIL 245
PM EDT...

AT 210 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES NORTH OF MARSHALL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARSHALL...MARS HILL AND WALNUT.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3579 8273 3584 8279 3596 8267 3584 8254
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 222DEG 10KT 3585 8270

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
219 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

NCZ033-501-141845-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS NC-AVERY NC-
219 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL AND EAST
CENTRAL AVERY COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 218 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES SOUTH OF FOSCOE...OR NEAR GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLOWING ROCK IN CALDWELL COUNTY...GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN STATE PARK.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3611 8181 3612 8169 3612 8165 3603 8178
      3607 8186 3614 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 227DEG 14KT 3609 8178

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
222 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

NCZ053-141845-
BUNCOMBE NC-
222 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY
UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

AT 222 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES WEST OF DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...OR NEAR ENKA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...WEST
ASHEVILLE...LEICESTER...ENKA...UNC-ASHEVILLE...WOODFIN...NORTH
ASHEVILLE AND CANDLER.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3560 8253 3547 8269 3550 8279 3553 8278
      3554 8277 3556 8278 3557 8277 3558 8278
      3559 8278 3569 8276
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 212DEG 13KT 3556 8272

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
232 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

NCZ048-141900-
MADISON NC-
232 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL MADISON COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 231 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTHWEST OF MARSHALL...OR 5 MILES EAST OF HOT SPRINGS...MOVING
NORTH AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOT SPRINGS...ALLENSTAND AND WALNUT.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

LAT...LON 3603 8259 3600 8261 3599 8260 3597 8261
      3596 8258 3596 8257 3581 8269 3585 8283
      3592 8281 3597 8278 3599 8279 3600 8277
      3600 8276 3605 8267 3606 8263
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 202DEG 23KT 3590 8274

LANE