Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

394 
WWUS52 KGSP 052157
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
557 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

NCC089-052207-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-160805T2230Z/
HENDERSON NC-
557 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3520 8194 3522 8215 3525 8229 3539 8227
      3539 8226 3542 8226 3544 8194
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 274DEG 13KT 3533 8218 

$$

NCC149-161-052230-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-160805T2230Z/
RUTHERFORD NC-POLK NC-
557 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND POLK COUNTIES...

AT 557 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF
COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUTHERFORDTON...COLUMBUS...GREEN HILL...MILL SPRING...LAKE ADGER...
GREEN CREEK...SPINDALE...LAKE LURE AND CHIMNEY ROCK STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN IN THE WARNED
AREA. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT AND INTENSE LIGHTNING. TURN OFF
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. DO NOT USE CORDED TELEPHONES. DO NOT TAKE A
BATH OR SHOWER.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL
FREE...1...800... 2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK
PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3520 8194 3522 8215 3525 8229 3539 8227
      3539 8226 3542 8226 3544 8194
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 274DEG 13KT 3533 8218 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ARK

008 
WWUS52 KGSP 052221
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
621 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

NCC149-161-052230-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-160805T2230Z/
RUTHERFORD NC-POLK NC-
621 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND POLK
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 630 PM EDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3520 8194 3522 8215 3525 8229 3539 8227
      3539 8226 3542 8226 3544 8194
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 270DEG 12KT 3533 8218 

$$

ARK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
225 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The axis of the upper trough moves east of our area tonight.  Expect
warmer and somewhat drier conditions over the weekend.
A weak cold front is expected to enter the region
from the northwest over the weekend then become nearly stationary
somewhere over the southeast through much of next week. Abundant
moisture along with the stalled out front will keep higher than
normal rain chances for much of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday: Impulse embedded in the weak flow aloft is
pushing through the Southern Appalachians at AFD time, and should be
working its way farther east into the NC Piedmont through the
evening. With the associated vort max pushing through, low level
flow has shifted around to the S and is continuing to veer to the
SW, so we've lost the fetch of moist easterly upslope flow that has
been in place the past couple of days. Plentiful moisture remains in
place but PW values are down a bit, closer to 1.8" instead of 2".
Weak synoptic lift associated with the PVA ahead of the upper
impulse has allowed scattered to numerous showers to form across the
mountains and Piedmont, with a bit of a lull between where the cloud
cover lingered the longest this morning and has inhibited
instability. Nevertheless, sbCAPE values have increased across the
area to between 1500-2500 J/kg with the highest CAPE values up the I-
77 corridor. Not seeing a lot of lightning with all this, yet, and
severe potential is very low.  As has been the case the bigger
concern is heavy rain potential. Showers/storms are moving NE but
additional convection is developing upwind so still contributing to
training cells.

As the impulse moves east, we swing around to the NVA side, and
winds veer more westerly with a downsloping component. This should
serve to help dissipate convection later this evening. As winds die
off overnight, expect radiation fog to develop across the area as we
have seen the past few mornings.

For Saturday, we should continue to see some downslope
warming/drying across the foothills and Piedmont, which will allow
temperatures to rise back above climatological normals. However, an
elongated front will work its way slowly across the Ohio Valley,
approaching the mountains toward the end of the period. With typical
orographic lift combined with the approach of the front, should see
a higher-than-diurnal convective trend across the mountains, but
with the downsloping across the Piedmont will likely see a little
less than diurnal trend. All said, for the next several days,
tomorrow will probably have the lowest chances of rain across the
Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 PM Friday...Models agree on a cold front sliding south
through the forecast area Saturday night, and stalling across the
Midlands by Sunday evening. Meanwhile, a 1020 mb surface high will
settle in across the Great Lakes, bringing easterly flow into the
area. The combination of moisture and convergence along the front
looks to result in scattered to numerous showers and storms across
the area, especially the southern half during the day on Sunday. A
model consensus PoP results in most of the area in likely. Temps
will be near normal, but may end up slightly below normal if clouds
can thicken up early enough in the day.

Sunday night and Monday...As a subtropical high builds over the
north Atlantic, a weak upper low will drift toward the northwest
over FL. This set up will produce a weak wave along the stalled
front near the FL panhandle by Monday morning. As the low develops,
southeasterly low-level flow will increase atop the CWFA. PWATs
climb back to 2 to 2.5" along the stalled boundary. So expect a
heavy rain threat to increase, but likely remain similar to the last
couple days. Temps will be slightly above normal overnight and below
normal during the day on Monday under a summertime CAD-like set up.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At 215 PM Friday: On Monday evening the upper ridge axis will extend
from the Miss Delta to the Great Lakes. An upper trough will be
departing east from the New England coast. There is expected to be a
weak low over the NE Gulf through mid week.  The ECMWF was the
most aggressive with a stronger low pumping strong upslope flow
against our mountains. GFS has 25 to 35kt SE 850mb flow against our
mtns on Tuesday and weakens it Wed then shifts it to from south on
Thursday and SW Friday. The ECMWF has best upslope toward end of the
week. There will be shortwaves passing through the upper flow north
of the Carolinas which will periodically enhance upglide along with
the weak low near the Gulf coast. At the surface there will be a
weak nearly stationary front somewhere over the SE through the week.
Instability will be rather low through mid week and increase a bit
at the end of the week.

With surface high pressure over Long Island Monday night into
Tuesday will contribute to a cool and moist flow off the Atlantic to
cause Max temps to be down Tuesday. After this high moves east over
the Atlantic the trend will be slightly warmer. Due to the overall
cloud cover and deep moisture...Maxes will be below normal and Mins
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT: VFR this afternoon with at least VCSH but enough SHRA
around to warrant prevailing mention, with TEMPO TSRA this
afternoon. Improving conditions after 00z with continued
lifting/scattering of clouds as flow aloft transitions to NWly. Kept
previous trend of MVFR vsby in the predawn hours, and cannot totally
rule out some stratus and have kept hint of this. S winds today will
continue to veer SW and finally WSW toward the end of the period.
Another round of TSRA possible Saturday, but after 18z so will not
introduce PROB30 in this TAF.

Elsewhere: Overall similar to KCLT but with VCTS this afternoon.
Predawn MVFR fog possible again, with KAVL most likely to see IFR
fog/stratus.

Outlook: Some drying will develop on Saturday as low level flow
becomes more southwesterly to westerly. A frontal boundary will drop
into the area Sunday and linger into Monday - with a wet pattern
returning.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High  93%     High 100%     High  97%     High  98%
KGSP       High  99%     High 100%     High  91%     High 100%
KAVL       High  81%     High  91%     High  86%     High  92%
KHKY       High  94%     High  91%     Med   79%     High  94%
KGMU       High  99%     High 100%     High  99%     High 100%
KAND       High  98%     High 100%     High  88%     High  98%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...TDP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
806 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-061215-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
806 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ISOLATED FLOODING MAY
DEVELOP IN ANY LOCATIONS REPEATEDLY AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS...OR
WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
340 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

NCZ052-064-052015-
HAYWOOD NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-
340 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN TRANSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 340 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES EAST OF WAYNESVILLE...OR NEAR MOUNT PISGAH...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNT PISGAH...LOOKING GLASS AND CRUSO.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3546 8278 3544 8278 3543 8276 3543 8275
      3536 8267 3535 8267 3528 8278 3543 8289
      3548 8281
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 324DEG 14KT 3542 8282

08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
508 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

NCZ504-052145-
GREATER BURKE NC-
508 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BURKE COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM EDT...

AT 508 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES EAST OF MORGANTON...OR NEAR VALDESE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VALDESE...ICARD...DREXEL...HILDEBRAN...CONNELLY SPRINGS...RUTHERFORD
COLLEGE...LAKE RHODHISS...HICKORY REGIONAL AIRPORT...RHODHISS AND
LONGVIEW.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES TO FALL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3578 8155 3578 8153 3579 8145 3577 8144
      3577 8142 3575 8138 3569 8142 3561 8151
      3557 8153 3556 8155 3570 8169 3580 8158
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 310DEG 13KT 3572 8155

08