Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
329 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cool and moist ridge of high pressure will slowly dissipate today
through tonight. A weak cold front is expected to enter the region
from the northwest over the weekend and keep higher than normal
rainfall chances in the forecast through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 AM EDT, rainfall rates in the upslope zone along the
eastern fringe of the mountains have diminished considerably. The
Flash Flood Watch has been cancelled for all zones except Henderson
- where streams continue to rise from the recent rainfall. The Watch
should also be dropped across Henderson by daybreak if no new
flooding develops.

Otherwise, water vapor imagery shows a trough axis just west of the
Appalachians with deeper moisture continuing over the mountains and
points east. Low level southeasterly upslope flow continues, but
rates have diminished despite area profiles showing precipitable
water values above two inches and warm cloud layers deeper than 13
kft. The boundary layer to 850 mb flow will slowly veer through
daybreak and continue to relieve some of the upslope forcing and
heavy rainfall potential in escarpment areas. Expect the nose of
surface high pressure to gradually weaken over the area with plenty
of low clouds persisting for a large chunk of the day. This will
keep instability down initially, but breaks in the southern sections
could contribute to surface based CAPE building to 2000 to 3000 J/kg
in piedmont areas by late afternoon. Just ahead of the upper trough
axis, convection will regenerate from west to east across the
mountains today - with outflows and forcing pushing east across the
piedmont through the evening hours. Any hydro problems going forward
would be due mainly to training and should be isolated in nature.
Max temps will be below climo in all but the far southern piedmont.

The upper trough axis will move slowly east of the forecast area
tonight...ending PoPs from west to east. W to NW downsloping flow
should develop and contribute to some brief drying. Expect mins to
run around 5 degrees above climo most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
At 200 AM Friday: On Saturday morning a low amplitude upper trough
will be over the Great Lakes and New England, extending south along
the eastern seaboard, while an upper trough will over the plains.
These features progress only very slowly, with the ridge moving
offshore on Sunday night. the models close off a weak upper low over
N FL on Saturday, the vary on its movement and location into Monday
morning.

At the surface, the models show a cold front reaching the southern
Appalachians on Saturday, preceded and accompanied by substantial
moisture. This boundary appears to stall in our vicinity on Sunday,
while surface ridging spreads down the eastern seaboard. Isentropic
upglide over this ridge, enhanced by the upper low to the south,
will support increasing precipitation production. Temperature will
run slightly above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At 200 AM Friday: On Monday morning an upper ridge will extend from
the western Gulf of Mexico to the northern plains, while an upper
trough will be off the northeast coast, and an upper ridge will be
located east of the Bahamas. Meanwhile, the models show a weak upper
low located somewhere in the vicinity of of S GA or N FL. The
pattern progresses such that by Wednesday the upper ridge moves off
the northeast coast, an upper trough reaches the northeast, and
another upper ridge reaches the northern plains, while the weak
closed low appears to drift about the northeast Gulf Coast. By
Friday the northern stream deamplifies east of the MS River Valley,
with zonal flow resulting, while the upper low to the south appears
to move north over AL.

At the surface, although the surface front will weaken over our
area next week, moist isentropic upglide over the surface ridge,
enhanced by the weak low over the Gulf States, will support
prolonged precipitation over our area into the later part of the
weak. Temperatures will exhibit a reduced diurnal range, with lows
above normal, and highs below normal, due to cloud cover and moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT: Lowering IFR stratus continues to develop early this
morning and LIFR ceilings may become more persistent through
daybreak. A few showers remain possible in the vicinity, but with
chances dwindling slightly. Expect very slow improvement in cigs
today as the wedge slowly weakens overhead as MVFR conditions linger
through most of the afternoon. SHRA/TSRA chances will increase again
from the west through the afternoon and evening hours as upper
shortwave energy arrives. Light ENE winds early will toggle ESE to
SE by late morning or early afternoon. Light southerly flow and VFR
conditions are expected late in the period.

Elsewhere: Shower chances continue to diminish this morning as the
upslope flow weakens. IFR cigs should get locked in fairly quickly
early this morning, with only slow improvement expected through late
morning and early afternoon. Another round of SHRA/TSRA is expected
this afternoon as upper support moves east over the Appalachians.
Light SE winds will turn more southerly to SW with time.

Outlook: Restrictions can be expected later Friday night in the
mountain valleys where fog and low stratus are likely, and are also
possible outside of the mountains over wet ground. Some drying will
develop on Saturday as low level flow becomes more southwesterly to
westerly. A frontal boundary will drop into the area Sunday and
linger into Monday - with a wet pattern returning.

Confidence Table...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       Low   54%     Med   77%     High  90%     High 100%
KGSP       Low   35%     High  83%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  80%     High  82%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       Med   74%     Med   74%     High  99%     High 100%
KGMU       Low   58%     High  85%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       Low   30%     Med   68%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ065.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
336 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>064-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-060745-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
336 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ISOLATED FLOODING MAY
DEVELOP IN ANY LOCATIONS REPEATEDLY AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS...OR
WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ065-060745-
HENDERSON-
336 AM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS HENDERSON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ISOLATED
FLOODING MAY DEVELOP IN ANY LOCATIONS REPEATEDLY AFFECTED BY
THUNDERSTORMS...OR WHERE HEAVY RAIN FALLS ON ALREADY SATURATED
GROUND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GERAPETRITIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1146 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1106 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNE BRYSON CITY       35.45N 83.44W
08/04/2016                   SWAIN              NC   PUBLIC

            CAMPER AT THE DEEP CREEK TUBE CENTER AND CAMPGROUND IS
            REPORTING DEEP CREEK IS OUT OF ITS BANKS AND FLOWING INTO
            CAMPSITES. CAMPERS ARE HAVING TO EVACUATE CAMPSITES.
            RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-7 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED IN ABOUT A
            3-HOUR PERIOD.

&&

JMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1224 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SW NEWFOUND GAP       35.56N 83.50W
08/04/2016                   SWAIN              NC   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN PARK DISPATCH RECEIVED RANGER REPORT
            OF 2 FEET OF STANDING WATER AT CLINGMAN/S DOME RD.
            PARKING LOT NEAR RESTROOMS. 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN FELL ALONG
            THE NC/TN BORDER IN 3 HOURS THIS EVENING.

&&

JMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
116 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1118 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNE BRYSON CITY       35.47N 83.43W
08/04/2016                   SWAIN              NC   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK DISPATCH REPORTED TOM
            BRANCH RD. CLOSED DUE TO FLOOD WATERS FROM DEEP CREEK AND
            TOM BRANCH. 3-7 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN A 3 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

JMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
127 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1106 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      2 NW BRYSON CITY        35.45N 83.47W
08/04/2016                   SWAIN              NC   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK DISPATCH AND SWAIN
            COUNTY 911 REPORT DEBRIS FLOW OVER LANDS CREEK RD. NEAR
            LAKEVIEW DR. AT LEAST 4 TREES OVER 20 INCHES IN DIAMETER
            AMONG THE DEBRIS REPORTED. MUD OVER LANDS CREEK RD. 3-7
            INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN A 3 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

JMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
131 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNW BRYSON CITY       35.46N 83.47W
08/04/2016                   SWAIN              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            SWAIN COUNTY 911 REPORTED A BRIDGE WASHED OUT ALONG LANDS
            CREEK RD. 3-7 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN A 3 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

JMP