Frost Advisory 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

047 
WWUS72 KGSP 220133
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
933 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

...FREEZING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT...

.AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TONIGHT...CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT A LARGER AREA
OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PARTS OF
THE PIEDMONT ON TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT SEE A
FREEZE ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SOME FROST.

GAZ010-017-NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-502-504-
506>510-SCZ001>003-005>013-019-221300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.W.0002.160322T0400Z-160322T1300Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION-
GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN...
MOUNTAIN CITY...CORNELIA...DEMOREST...CLARKESVILLE...BETHLEHEM...
TAYLORSVILLE...STONY POINT...STATESVILLE...MOORESVILLE...
MOCKSVILLE...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...LAKE JUNALUSKA...HICKORY...NEWTON...
ST. STEPHENS...SALISBURY...ROBBINSVILLE...CULLOWHEE...SYLVA...
FRANKLIN...HIGHLANDS...CASHIERS...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...
FLETCHER...EAST FLAT ROCK...ETOWAH...SHELBY...KINGS MOUNTAIN...
LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CONCORD...KANNAPOLIS...LENOIR...
MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...FOREST CITY...RUTHERFORDTON...
SALUDA...COLUMBUS...WALHALLA...PUMPKINTOWN...TIGERVILLE...
GOWENSVILLE...CAESARS HEAD...CLEVELAND...MARIETTA...EASLEY...
CLEMSON...TAYLORS...GREER...MAULDIN...SIMPSONVILLE...BEREA...
SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...
CALHOUN FALLS...LAURENS...CLINTON...UNION
933 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH 
  CAROLINA...AND MUCH OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 TUESDAY
  MORNING. 

* IMPACTS...DAMAGE TO TENDER VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ082-SCZ004-014-221300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0002.160322T0400Z-160322T1300Z/
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-UNION-GREATER OCONEE-CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...ROYSTON...LAVONIA...
FRANKLIN SPRINGS...CANON...HARTWELL...REED CREEK...ELBERTON...
MONROE...TRINITY...INDIAN TRAIL...WEDDINGTON...SENECA...CHESTER...
GREAT FALLS
933 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE PIEDMONT OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PLUS CHESTER 
  AND SOUTHERN OCONEE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND UNION 
  COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS JUST ABOVE FREEZING...GENERALLY 33 TO 35. A
  FEW SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO 32.

* WINDS...WEST 5 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE VEGETATION IS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

697 
WWUS72 KGSP 220734
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
334 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...FREEZING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS MORNING...

.AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES...CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
FREEZING EARLY THISMORNING. EVEN LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT SEE A
FREEZE ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE SOME FROST.

GAZ010-017-NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-502-504-
506>510-SCZ001>003-005>013-019-221300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160322T1300Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION-
GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN...
MOUNTAIN CITY...CORNELIA...DEMOREST...CLARKESVILLE...BETHLEHEM...
TAYLORSVILLE...STONY POINT...STATESVILLE...MOORESVILLE...
MOCKSVILLE...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...LAKE JUNALUSKA...HICKORY...NEWTON...
ST. STEPHENS...SALISBURY...ROBBINSVILLE...CULLOWHEE...SYLVA...
FRANKLIN...HIGHLANDS...CASHIERS...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...
FLETCHER...EAST FLAT ROCK...ETOWAH...SHELBY...KINGS MOUNTAIN...
LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CONCORD...KANNAPOLIS...LENOIR...
MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...FOREST CITY...RUTHERFORDTON...
SALUDA...COLUMBUS...WALHALLA...PUMPKINTOWN...TIGERVILLE...
GOWENSVILLE...CAESARS HEAD...CLEVELAND...MARIETTA...EASLEY...
CLEMSON...TAYLORS...GREER...MAULDIN...SIMPSONVILLE...BEREA...
SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...
CALHOUN FALLS...LAURENS...CLINTON...UNION
334 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF
  NORTH CAROLINA...AND MUCH OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 BY SUNRISE.

* IMPACTS...DAMAGE TO TENDER VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ082-SCZ004-014-221300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-160322T1300Z/
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-UNION-GREATER OCONEE-CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...ROYSTON...LAVONIA...
FRANKLIN SPRINGS...CANON...HARTWELL...REED CREEK...ELBERTON...
MONROE...TRINITY...INDIAN TRAIL...WEDDINGTON...SENECA...CHESTER...
GREAT FALLS
334 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE PIEDMONT OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PLUS CHESTER 
  AND SOUTHERN OCONEE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND UNION 
  COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS JUST ABOVE FREEZING...GENERALLY 33 TO 35. 
  A FEW SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY DIP TO 32.

* WINDS...WEST 5 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE VEGETATION IS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$
ARK

690 
WWUS72 KGSP 221306
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
906 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...TEMPERATURES WARMING UNDER SUNNY SKIES...

.THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.

GAZ010-017-NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-502-504-
506>510-SCZ001>003-005>013-019-221415-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160322T1300Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION-
GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN...
MOUNTAIN CITY...CORNELIA...DEMOREST...CLARKESVILLE...BETHLEHEM...
TAYLORSVILLE...STONY POINT...STATESVILLE...MOORESVILLE...
MOCKSVILLE...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...CANTON...LAKE JUNALUSKA...HICKORY...NEWTON...
ST. STEPHENS...SALISBURY...ROBBINSVILLE...CULLOWHEE...SYLVA...
FRANKLIN...HIGHLANDS...CASHIERS...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...
FLETCHER...EAST FLAT ROCK...ETOWAH...SHELBY...KINGS MOUNTAIN...
LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CONCORD...KANNAPOLIS...LENOIR...
MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...FOREST CITY...RUTHERFORDTON...
SALUDA...COLUMBUS...WALHALLA...PUMPKINTOWN...TIGERVILLE...
GOWENSVILLE...CAESARS HEAD...CLEVELAND...MARIETTA...EASLEY...
CLEMSON...TAYLORS...GREER...MAULDIN...SIMPSONVILLE...BEREA...
SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...
CALHOUN FALLS...LAURENS...CLINTON...UNION
906 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...FREEZE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

OBSERVATION SITES INDICATE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER
30S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND SHADY SPOTS MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR A LITTLE
WHILE LONGER.

$$

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ082-SCZ004-014-221415-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-160322T1300Z/
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-UNION-GREATER OCONEE-CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...ROYSTON...LAVONIA...
FRANKLIN SPRINGS...CANON...HARTWELL...REED CREEK...ELBERTON...
MONROE...TRINITY...INDIAN TRAIL...WEDDINGTON...SENECA...CHESTER...
GREAT FALLS
906 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

...FROST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

TEMPERATURES ARE NOW WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND SUNSHINE WILL HELP
SURFACES WARM STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY. SENSITIVE VEGETATION ARE
NOT LIKELY TO BE FURTHER AFFECTED BY FROST.

$$
WIMBERLEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER MOIST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...SETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THRU THE
END OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS A COOL AND DRY SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS BRISK...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY CLOUD
COVER EXCEPT FOR THE STRATOCU BEING WRUNG OUT OF THE FLOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...WHILE THE FCST LOOKS BENIGN...THERE ARE
A COUPLE OF WRINKLES OF SPECIAL INTEREST.

THE RIDGE AXIS SETS UP RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY DAYBREAK
TUE. GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE
NIGHT TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BEING MORE OR LESS NONEXISTENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PRODUCTS SUGGEST
WIDESPREAD TEMPS JUST A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING ACRS THE
PIEDMONT...AND LOCALIZED AREAS BELOW FREEZING. THIS CERTAINLY
LOOKS LIKE A NIGHT WHERE TEMPS CRATER IN THE FAVORED/SHELTERED COOL
SPOTS. THE MOS PRODUCTS SEEM JUST A LITTLE BIT TOO WARM GIVEN THE
CONDITIONS. BLENDING IN A SHARE OF THE CO-OP MOS /WHICH DOES HAVE A
COOL BIAS/ BRINGS TEMPS DOWN TO A MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZE...THOUGH
LOCALIZED WARM/COOL SPOTS ARE STILL PRESENT. I OPTED TO UPGRADE
THE EXISTING FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING. WHILE DEWPTS MAY BE TOO DRY
OVERNIGHT FOR A PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD OR THICK FROST...ONCE AGAIN
EVEN LOCALIZED AREAS THAT DO NOT FREEZE COULD STILL EXPERIENCE A
DAMAGING FROST. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN USED IN THE REMAINING
AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS CONSIDERED TO HAVE BEGUN.

SECONDLY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON ON THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW. I FAVORED BIAS-CORRECTED MOS MAX TEMPS...WHICH
ARE A SHADE ABOVE CLIMO. DEWPOINTS DO REBOUND AS WELL...THOUGH NOT
QUITE AS MUCH AS TEMPS. SOME MIXING IS LIKELY THOUGH MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE RETURN FLOW COUNTERACTS AND PERHAPS EVEN OVERPOWERS
THE MIXING. RH WILL BE MARGINALLY LOW FOR FIRE WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS STATES. WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE...THIS SETS UP DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT SOME OF THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS...THE LITTLE
TENNESSEE BASIN FOR EXAMPLE...MAY STILL HAVE LINGERING FROSTY TEMPS.
HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. A
SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA
THURSDAY WITH A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE
IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE
SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE...BUT IT APPEARS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE THURSDAY EVENING...WITH ANY LINGERING
PRECIP RAPIDLY DIMINISHING FRIDAY MORNING. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE QUITE A BIT
OF BULK SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. CURVED HODOGRAPHS DEVELOP
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LEADING TO HIGH
HELICITY VALUES. THEREFORE...THE CHANCE OF A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE TYPE OF EVENTS CAN
BE TRICKY...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS IT
DEVELOPS.

LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THEN
FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES THURSDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY FALL TO NEAR NORMAL WEST AND UP TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED WITH MODEL INCONSISTENCY. THE GFS MADE A
MAJOR CHANGE ON ITS LATE RUN YESTERDAY WITH REGARD TO THE LATE WEEK
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THAT NEWER SCENARIO HAS CONTINUED INTO TODAYS
RUN. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FASTER OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WHICH
LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE TO OUR EAST AND RAIN
WILL HAVE ENDED BY SUNSET ON FRIDAY. SO...REASONABLE CONFIDENCE
PREVAILS IN A DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. EXPECT THIS TO BRING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS.

CONFIDENCE GOES DOWNHILL QUICKLY FROM THERE. THE PROBLEM IS THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINS LESS
AMPLIFIED AND THUS FASTER WITH MOISTURE RETURN BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE MORE AMPLIFIED OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT
BRING MOISTURE AND PRECIP IN FROM THE SW UNTIL PERHAPS 18Z SUNDAY.
THE 12Z RUN OF THE GEFS SUGGESTS THAT SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
BEGINNING BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY AS MOST OF THE MEMBERS HAVE SOME
PRECIP ACCUMULATION BEFORE 12Z. THUS...THE FORECAST MORE OR LESS
SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND RAMPS PRECIP PROB UP INTO THE CHANCE RANGE
BY 12Z ON SUNDAY. FROM THAT POINT ONWARD...THE SITUATION LOOKS DAMP
AS MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE GULF INCREASES NO MATTER WHICH MODEL IS
ULTIMATELY CORRECT...AS A SRN STREAM COMES OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
APPROACHES FROM THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FOR
NOW...THE PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN HELD MOSTLY IN THE CHANCE RANGE
BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY WHEN THE BEST FORCING WILL MOVE THROUGH...
BUT EXPECT EVENTUALLY TO SEE AT LEAST LIKELY...PERHAPS MONDAY. TEMPS
WILL BE MOST TRICKY ON SUNDAY AS A COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE IS
POSSIBLE. THE TEMPS RIGHT NOW ONLY LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER
GUIDANCE...AND COULD VERY WELL BE TEN DEGREES TOO WARM IN SPOTS...IF
THE LIGHT PRECIP BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST BY
MIDDAY TUESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT TODAY...BECOMING
CALM FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT...THEN PICKING UP FROM THE SW TUE. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR CLOUD COVER OVERALL...THOUGH
THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL GENERATE SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE SPINE
OF THE APPALACHIANS WEST OF KAVL. GOOD RADIATION AND THE LIGHT
WINDS WILL PRODUCE NEAR- OR SUB-FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE REGION
AT DAYBREAK...AND WHILE THE AIRMASS IS PRETTY DRY SOME FROST IS
LIKELY TO RESULT.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES THRU WEDNESDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY...AND CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULE TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY.  COMPLET HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     GAZ010-017.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-502-504-
     506>510.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     NCZ082.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     SCZ001>003-005>013-019.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     SCZ004-014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-220745-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
345 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-220745-
RABUN-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-
345 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR RABUN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
   FREEZE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...FREEZE LIKELY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FREEZE WARNING
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>070-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ005>007-220745-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
345 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
UPSTATE OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WARNING.
   FREEZE WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...FREEZE LIKELY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FREEZE WATCH FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ004-220745-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GREATER OCONEE-
345 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND
GREATER OCONEE COUNTY IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...FROST POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
TUESDAY MORNING COULD PERMIT FROST TO FORM IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT
ENOUGH.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ017-NCZ048-053-065-507-509-SCZ001>003-220745-
HABERSHAM-MADISON-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
345 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTHEAST
GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THE UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...FREEZE LIKELY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FREEZE WARNING
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ071-072-SCZ008>013-019-220745-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION-
GREENWOOD-
345 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...AND THE PIEDMONT
OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...FREEZE LIKELY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FREEZE WATCH FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ082-SCZ014-220745-
UNION-CHESTER-
345 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UNION AND CHESTER COUNTIES
IN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

..TUESDAY...FROST POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
TUESDAY MORNING COULD PERMIT FROST TO FORM IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT
ENOUGH.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GERAPETRITIS