Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

886 
WWUS43 KGRR 091606
WSWGRR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1106 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

MIZ037>040-043>046-050-051-056-057-064-071-100015-
/O.CON.KGRR.WS.W.0001.160110T0000Z-160111T0000Z/
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-OTTAWA-KENT-ALLEGAN-VAN BUREN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUDINGTON...BALDWIN...REED CITY...
CLARE...HART...FREMONT...BIG RAPIDS...MOUNT PLEASANT...MUSKEGON...
GREENVILLE...JENISON...GRAND RAPIDS...HOLLAND...SOUTH HAVEN
1106 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO ICY ROADS.

 * 5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING. 

 * NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 MPH BY SUNDAY CAUSING BLOWING
   AND DRIFTING SNOW.

IMPACTS...

 * ICE AND SNOW COVERED ROADS MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

 * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS 
   TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT 
   SLOW IN ICE AND SNOW. 

&&

$$

MIZ073-100015-
/O.EXA.KGRR.WW.Y.0001.160110T0000Z-160111T0000Z/
CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BATTLE CREEK
1106 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST SUNDAY. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

 * NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH ON SUNDAY CAUSING BLOWING SNOW.

IMPACTS...

 * ICE AND SNOW COVERED ROADS MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

 * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS 
   TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT 
   SLOW IN ICE AND SNOW. 

&&

$$

MIZ052-058-059-065-066-072-100015-
/O.CON.KGRR.WW.Y.0001.160110T0000Z-160111T0000Z/
GRATIOT-IONIA-CLINTON-BARRY-EATON-KALAMAZOO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALMA...IONIA...ST. JOHNS...HASTINGS...
CHARLOTTE...KALAMAZOO
1106 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

 * NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH ON SUNDAY CAUSING BLOWING
   AND DRIFTING SNOW.

IMPACTS...

 * ICE AND SNOW COVERED ROADS MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

 * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS 
   TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT 
   SLOW IN ICE AND SNOW. 

&&

$$

OSTUNO

490 
WWUS43 KGRR 092030
WSWGRR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

MIZ037>040-043>046-050-051-056-057-064-071-100430-
/O.CON.KGRR.WS.W.0001.160110T0000Z-160111T0000Z/
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-OTTAWA-KENT-ALLEGAN-VAN BUREN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUDINGTON...BALDWIN...REED CITY...
CLARE...HART...FREMONT...BIG RAPIDS...MOUNT PLEASANT...MUSKEGON...
GREENVILLE...JENISON...GRAND RAPIDS...HOLLAND...SOUTH HAVEN
330 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO ICY ROADS.

 * 5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

 * NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 MPH BY SUNDAY CAUSING 
   BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. 

IMPACTS...

 * ICE AND SNOW COVERED ROADS MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

 * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS 
   TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT 
   SLOW IN ICE AND SNOW. 

&&

$$

MIZ052-058-059-065-066-072-073-100430-
/O.CON.KGRR.WW.Y.0001.160110T0000Z-160111T0000Z/
GRATIOT-IONIA-CLINTON-BARRY-EATON-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALMA...IONIA...ST. JOHNS...HASTINGS...
CHARLOTTE...KALAMAZOO...BATTLE CREEK
330 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

 * NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH ON SUNDAY CAUSING BLOWING 
   AND DRIFTING SNOW. 

IMPACTS...

 * ICE AND SNOW COVERED ROADS MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

 * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS 
   TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT 
   SLOW IN ICE AND SNOW. 

&&

$$

OSTUNO

206 
WWUS43 KGRR 100249
WSWGRR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
949 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

MIZ064-071-101100-
/O.CAN.KGRR.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160111T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KGRR.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-160111T0000Z/
ALLEGAN-VAN BUREN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOLLAND...SOUTH HAVEN
949 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

 * NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH ON SUNDAY CAUSING BLOWING 
   AND DRIFTING SNOW. 

IMPACTS...

 * ICE AND SNOW COVERED ROADS MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

 * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS 
   TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT 
   SLOW IN ICE AND SNOW. 

 * WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON LINE AT 
   WWW.READY.GOV/WINTER AND HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/5OG. 

&&

$$

MIZ037>040-043>046-050-051-056-057-101100-
/O.CON.KGRR.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160111T0000Z/
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-OTTAWA-KENT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUDINGTON...BALDWIN...REED CITY...
CLARE...HART...FREMONT...BIG RAPIDS...MOUNT PLEASANT...MUSKEGON...
GREENVILLE...JENISON...GRAND RAPIDS
949 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO ICY ROADS.

 * 5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

 * NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 35 TO 40 MPH BY SUNDAY CAUSING 
   BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. 

IMPACTS...

 * ICE AND SNOW COVERED ROADS MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

 * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS 
   TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT 
   SLOW IN ICE AND SNOW. 

&&

$$

MIZ052-058-059-065-066-072-073-101100-
/O.CON.KGRR.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-160111T0000Z/
GRATIOT-IONIA-CLINTON-BARRY-EATON-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALMA...IONIA...ST. JOHNS...HASTINGS...
CHARLOTTE...KALAMAZOO...BATTLE CREEK
949 PM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
SUNDAY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

 * NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH ON SUNDAY CAUSING BLOWING 
   AND DRIFTING SNOW. 

IMPACTS...

 * ICE AND SNOW COVERED ROADS MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

 * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS 
   TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT 
   SLOW IN ICE AND SNOW. 

&&

$$

JK

786 
WWUS43 KGRR 100856
WSWGRR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
356 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

MIZ037>040-043>046-050-051-056-057-101700-
/O.CON.KGRR.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160111T0000Z/
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-OTTAWA-KENT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUDINGTON...BALDWIN...REED CITY...
CLARE...HART...FREMONT...BIG RAPIDS...MOUNT PLEASANT...MUSKEGON...
GREENVILLE...JENISON...GRAND RAPIDS
356 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH MID DAY
   TODAY.

 * THIS WILL BRING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL TO 3 TO 8 INCHES.

 * EVEN THOUGH THE SNOW DIMINISHES TOWARD MID DAY...NORTHWEST
   WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
   CONTINUE TO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...IMPACTING TRAVEL
   CONDITIONS.

IMPACTS...

 * ICE AND SNOW COVERED ROADS MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

 * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS 
   TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT 
   SLOW IN ICE AND SNOW. 

&&

$$

MIZ052-058-059-064>066-071>073-101700-
/O.CON.KGRR.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-160111T0000Z/
GRATIOT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-
CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALMA...IONIA...ST. JOHNS...HOLLAND...
HASTINGS...CHARLOTTE...SOUTH HAVEN...KALAMAZOO...BATTLE CREEK
356 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS
   MORNING THROUGH MID DAY.

 * EVEN THOUGH THE SNOW DIMINISHES TOWARD MID DAY...NORTHWEST
   WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
   CONTINUE TO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...IMPACTING TRAVEL
   CONDITIONS. 

IMPACTS...

 * ICE AND SNOW COVERED ROADS MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT.

 * REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS 
   TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT 
   SLOW IN ICE AND SNOW. 

&&

$$

428 
WWUS43 KGRR 101223
WSWGRR

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
723 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

MIZ037>040-043>046-050-051-056-057-101330-
/O.CAN.KGRR.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160111T0000Z/
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-OTTAWA-KENT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUDINGTON...BALDWIN...REED CITY...
CLARE...HART...FREMONT...BIG RAPIDS...MOUNT PLEASANT...MUSKEGON...
GREENVILLE...JENISON...GRAND RAPIDS
723 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
   ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES.

 * THE STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING ONLY LAKE
   EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.


IMPACTS...

 * SNOW FALL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 WAS IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE
   BASED ON CURRENT REPORTS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * SEND REPORTS TO NWS GRAND RAPIDS OR VISIT WEATHER.GOV/GRR FOR 
   MORE INFORMATION. 

&&

$$

MIZ052-058-059-064>066-071>073-101330-
/O.CAN.KGRR.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-160111T0000Z/
GRATIOT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-
CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALMA...IONIA...ST. JOHNS...HOLLAND...
HASTINGS...CHARLOTTE...SOUTH HAVEN...KALAMAZOO...BATTLE CREEK
723 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WERE AN INCH OR LESS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * SEND REPORTS TO NWS GRAND RAPIDS OR VISIT WEATHER.GOV/GRR FOR 
   MORE INFORMATION. 

&&

$$


WDM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
254 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION AS RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  A RAPID FALL IN TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE A
QUICK FREEZE UP ON AREA ROADS THIS EVENING. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
GRAND RAPIDS CAN EXPECT 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW...WHILE AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS WILL SEE 1 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. ALONG WITH
THE SNOW...WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH CAUSING BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.

ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.  IT SHOULD REMAIN COLD ALL NEXT WEEK WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS ONLY 20 TO 25.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NW HALF OF THE CWA FOR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  THIS WILL BE BORDERED BY AN ADVISORY TO IT/S SE.

POTENT LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ON TRACK TO IMPACT MUCH OF LOWER
MICHIGAN.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH AS THE MODELS HAVE STUCK TO A
VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION FOR THE PAST 24-36 HOURS.  THE STORM PATH
REMAINS INTACT...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS SLIGHT QUICKER...REACHING JUST
WEST OF ERIE PA BY 12 SUNDAY.

THE KEY ELEMENT TO THE FORECAST WILL BE THE TEMP TREND.  MODELS
SEEMS TOO WARM AS THE PCPN SETTLES IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  UPSTREAM
OBS BACK THIS UP.  IF THIS HOLDS WE WILL SEE A QUICKER CHANGE OVER
TO SNOW...AND THEREFORE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS.  I BELIEVE THIS COOLER
TREND WILL HOLD FOR THE NW CWA...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE SE WILL
STRUGGLE TO COOL AS THE SYSTEM BRINGS A SURGE OF WARM GULF AIR
THERE.  SO EXPECT WE WILLS SEE A SHARP SNOW TOTALS ALONG A LINE FROM
ROUGHLY ALMA TO SOUTH HAVEN.  NW OF THIS LINE THE PCPN TYPE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW...WHILE AREAS SE OF THE LINE ONLY
CHANGE OVER THROUGH TONIGHT.  THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR AREAS NW OF THE LINE...AN ADVISORY TO THE SE.
5TO8INCHESIN THE WARNING...3-5 IN THE ADVISORY.  I WILL EXCLUDE
CALHOUN...INGHAM AND JACKSON COUNTIES WHERE ONLY 1-3 INCHES IS
EXPECTED.

THE QUICK FREEZE UP WILL BE A FACTOR IN THIS STORM CAUSING ROADS TO
ICE UP AS THE SNOW BEGINS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME A FACTOR AND IS
REALLY WHAT PUSHES THIS STORM INTO THE WARNING CATEGORY.  GUST WILL
FREQUENTLY BE IN THE 30-35 MPH RANGE...AND EVEN A BIT HIGHER ALONG
THE COAST.  THIS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY
AS TEMPS GET COLDER AND THE SNOW GET FLUFFIER.  THE ABRUPT CHANGE IN
THE AREA/S CONDITIONS WAS ALSO A CONSIDERING FACTOR WITH THE
HEADLINES DECISIONS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

AFTER 5 MONTHS OF UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PERSISTENT COLD WEATHER... WE ARE IN FOR A MAJOR PATTERN
CHANGE. THIS WILL MEAN PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MOST OF THIS WEEK AND LIKELY BEYOND THAT. THE DAYS WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND GREATEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ARE
TUESDAY THEN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

THANKS TO MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
HIGH NORTH OF ALASKA AND A RIDGE (FORCED BY THE MJO BEING IN PHASE
8) ALONG THE WEST COAST WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPACTING OUR WEATHER MOST OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ACTUALLY
BY THURSDAY WE HAVE REX BLOCK OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER BAFFIN'S ISLAND AND ELONGATED CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE THE WEST COAST RIDGE
PERSISTENT. SO WHAT WE WILL SEE IS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND THE CANADIAN UPPER LOW THROUGH THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS COMING
WEEKEND. AS EACH COMES THROUGH THE INVERSION HEIGHT RISES AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL RAMP UP.  THE FIRST OF THESE COMES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING THEN THE NEXT ONE IS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT COMES FROM NORTH OF ALASKA (THIS MORNING)
DROPS INTO THE MEAN TROUGH IT HELPS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER
MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY EVENING. THAT RESULTS IN INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE
ABOVE 10000 FT TUESDAY MORNING AND THERE IS STRONG LIFT IN THE DGZ.
THIS WILL START AS SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT AND TRANSITION INTO A WEST
FLOW EVENT TUESDAY DURING THE DAY. IT WILL BE WINDY IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH MORE THAN POSSIBLE  DUE TO THE SHIFTING SNOW
BANDS THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT SPREAD OUT BUT THANKS TO
THE WEST WINDS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY THE BAND WILL STREAM INLAND
BETWEEN I-94 AND I-96.  THE CIPS ANALOGS SHOW AT GREATER THAN 80 PCT
CHANCE OF MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF US-131 FOR THIS EVENT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT COMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS
NOT AS IMPRESSIVE BUT EVEN SO WE ARE STILL IN THE COLD AIR AND GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING GOOD LIFT AS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH. THIS
ONE SEEMS TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS MORE THAN THE NORTHERN
ONES. EVEN SO... THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE.

BEYOND THURSDAY THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW THE CANADIAN
UPPER LOW WOBBLES AROUND. THE ECMWF ROTATES ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW
THOUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS THAT SYSTEM STALLED OVER
NORTH DAKOTAS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE LATER MODEL RUNS TO RESOLVE THAT
BUT ONE WAY OR THE OTHER IT WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN NORMAL AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE EXPECTED NEAR AND WEST OF US-
131 MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
BOTH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THE BULK OF THE TIME.
VISIBILITIES HAVE COME UP THIS EVENING AS SOME RAIN IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA...BUT AFTER IT LIFTS NORTHEAST SHORTLY
VISIBILITIES SHOULD COME DOWN ONCE AGAIN. BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY
WE SHOULD SEE VISIBILITIES UNDER 1 MILE AT MOST TAF SITES.
CEILINGS WILL BE 400FT OR BELOW. DRIZZLE AND FOG AND LOW CEILINGS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...TRENDING TO ALL SNOW SATURDAY EVENING WILL
MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW JUST BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST SAT JAN 9 2016

GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED AS WINDS RAMP UP QUICKLY LATE TONIGHT.
THE WINDS SHOULD SIMMER DOWN A BIT BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
STORM PULLS AWAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN FOR MINOR RIVER FLOODING HEADING
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. RIVER RISES ARE LIKELY WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH BANKFULL. THE MAIN
QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE AMOUNT OF RUNOFF
DUE TO SNOWMELT AND RESULTING LIQUID PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY EVENING.

THE FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI/ILLINOIS. RAINFALL POTENTIAL EXISTS
NOW THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE KEY TO HOW QUICKLY RIVERS
RESPOND LIES IN THE DETAILS OF REALIZED TOTALS...LEADING UP TO THE
THE TRANSITION TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. ONCE COLDER AIR MOVES IN
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...SUB-FREEZING TEMPS MAY BRING A HALT TO
MUCH OF THE RUNOFF AS POTENTIAL RUNOFF FREEZES. PRECIPITATION IS
THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY LOCKED UP IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

THE WEEK AHEAD WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR
ANY RISES THAT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXCEED BANKFULL.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-050-051-056-057-064-071.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR MIZ052-058-059-065-066-072.

LM...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...JK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
437 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-091030-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
437 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. THE WIND WILL
INCREASE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
ARRIVES. THE TEMPERATURE WILL BE FALLING WHICH WILL LEAD TO ICY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL BE
ENHANCED LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH. MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A BATTLE CREEK TO
BIG RAPIDS LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ844>849-091030-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
437 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. A SECOND EVENT COULD LEAD TO GALE FORCE WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MJS NJJ